Vijay Kumar Gaba

In the pre-finfluencer era, we used to have gods in the financial markets. Those gods would make an occasional public appearance and talk about their views on markets and investment strategies. The market participant would listen to these gods with rapt attention and follow them religiously. All those Buffets, Mungers, Rogers, Finks, Woods, Jhunjhunwalas, Damanis, et. al. were revered names. Then TikTok, Instagram, and X (formerly Twitter) happened. Financial experts, economists, monetary theorists, and technical gurus mushroomed at the rate of 100 per hour.

Everyone who has traded stocks or crypto for three months is now an expert. They not only try to influence other investors/traders by giving unsolicited advice and recommendations; but also get influenced by the advice/recommendations of others who may not be any better than them. Sometimes it appears that there are more experts in the market than the actual number of investors and traders. Unfortunately, this is the situation worldwide.

Misallocation of capital and unwarranted and avoidable losses are some natural consequences of this phenomenon. However, a more significant consequence is a diminution of traditional correlations.

A multitude of market influencers is driven by individual positioning as against a conceptual understanding of finance and economics. There are no dominating views in the markets. Each influencer is influencing multiple traders and also getting influenced by multiple other influencers. Since more positions are driven by intuitions rather than fundamentals, the divergence between market prices and fair values is wider, and lasting much longer.

For example, consider the following:

Gold and bonds are trading in opposite directions. Gold, traditionally considered a hedge against a drop in real rates, started firming up in 2022. However, now that 2024 rate cuts are getting dropped from foreca500sts, gold has given its best 2-month performance in decades.

This divergence of gold from real rates, against the historical trend, is being explained from a variety of angles. Some believe that a US sovereign downgrade may be imminent. Others explain this as a move away from USD in a worsening geopolitical scenario. However, the equity positioning and tech valuations do not corroborate any of these views.

Similarly, equities and rate expectations are also diverging against the historical trend. In the past six months, S&P500 has rallied 25% despite hopes of 2024 rate cuts fading fast.

Recently, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, was quoted as saying, “We are prepared for a very broad range of interest rates, from 2% to 8% or even more”. Larry Summers, Former Treasury Secretary, a very reputable name in financial markets also said, “You have to take seriously the possibility that the next rate move will be upwards rather than downwards”. Michelle Bowman, FED Governor, also said, “I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting, we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse."

But no one appears to be listening to these experts. Professional TikTokers are getting more attention than them. I will not be surprised if the people who trade on their advice learn some basic investing lessons paying a heavy price.

In the past few days, three noteworthy events took place in the global financial markets. These events highlight the policymakers’ dilemma and the uncertainty faced by the financial markets.

First, the Bank of Japan changed its policy stance of “negative interest rates” ending its massive decade-long monetary stimulus exercise to a virtual close. Addressing the press after the policy decision, Governor Kazua Ueda emphasized that BoJ has “reverted to a normal monetary policy targeting short-term interest rates as with other central banks” He also added that “if trend inflation heightens a bit more, that may lead to an increase in short-term rates”.

An overwhelming market consensus now believes that BoJ will hike the policy rates from the present 0-0.1% to 1% in the next year. However, given the massive debt accumulated over the past two decades, Japan may not afford any rate hike beyond 1%.

USDJPY (151.38) is now at its lowest level since 1990.

Second, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its policy rates by 25bps, its first rate cut in nine years. The other European central banks, viz., Norwegian Central Bank (Norges Bank) and Bank of England however decided to maintain the status quo. The decision of SNB was unexpected as the market consensus favored a status quo. SNB did not commit to any further cuts.

This ‘surprise’ move by SNB led the Swiss Franc (USDCHF) and Swiss treasuries to tumble down to their lowest level in eight months.

Third, the US Federal Reserve maintained the status quo on its policy rates, holding the policy rates in a range of 5.25%-5.5%, as expected by the market consensus. The market expectations are now veering around 0-3 cuts this year, against the expectations of 6-8 cuts four months ago. The ‘no-cut’ this year is gaining more support every day.

In the post-meeting press interaction, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was as non-committal as one could be, leaving the markets confused and speculating. Powell said, “despite high interest rates, economic growth has remained relatively strong and inflation has materially lowered over the past year. Consequently, the FOMC raised its growth and inflation expectations for 2024”. Powell added that “there is still plenty of progress to be made on meeting its 2% inflation target” and hence “the path forward is uncertain.”

After reading the three policy statements carefully, my understanding of the situation is as follows:

·         The central banks are increasingly confident of avoiding any deeper recession in the short term at least (1-2 years). Even the “soft-landing” (shallow recession) appears to be slowly becoming a bear case. The base case is low growth for a longer period.

·         The central bankers are inclined to accept 2-4% inflation as normal. This suits everyone. The governments that have accumulated massive debt over the past decade would be happy if the real rates just stayed negative for long. Savers are happy to earn higher nominal rates on their savings. Corporations are happy to borrow more at negative real rates, buy back their equity, and enhance the market value of their businesses with low earnings growth. We may also see a relative currency depreciation of countries with high external debt (e.g., the US) as a tool for debt management.

·         The popular narrative revolves around “resilient growth”, “sticky inflation” and “calibrated easing”. None seems to be positioned for a Fed rate hike presently. Though the probability may be negligible presently, further strengthening of growth momentum, a strong El Nino, and/or worsening of geopolitical conditions in the Middle East Asia and Central Europe fueling inflation could enhance this probability.

In the Indian context, the RBI has been on pause for over a year now. This is despite inflation consistently remaining close to above the upper bound of its tolerance range of 4-6%; growth surpassing its mostly optimistic estimates; distinct signs of heating in certain pockets of the credit market (especially credit card outstandings and unsecured NBFC lending); and the regulators frequently expressing concerns over excesses in financial markets. RBI has chosen to use tools like withdrawing liquidity through open market operations and nudging NBFCs and banks through advisories to regulate the credit markets.

The popular market narrative in India also revolves around the timing of the cut rather than “cut or hike”. For the financial sector, it means “Margin pressure”, “slower growth”, and “pressure on asset quality”.

RBI’s pause hinders the lenders’ ability to hike the lending rates when the cost of funds is rising due to tighter liquidity and stricter norms. The government has hiked the rates on small savings and EPF. This pressures banks’ cost of deposits. Stricter lending norms might adversely impact the product mix of lenders as the weightage of high-margin personal and unsecured loans reduces. Pressure on low-cost CASA rises as the savers move to high-yield options like corporate bonds, credit funds, and even equities.

In my view, investors should be wary of the free advice of deep value in the banking sector. The large banks are underperforming for a valid reason and smaller banks may have completed their re-rating journey.

The first day of January of the Gregorian calendar is widely celebrated as “New Year” globally. Scientifically speaking, this is just another point in ad infinitum; and no different from the millions of other similar points in the history of mankind. Nonetheless, we celebrate it as a new beginning, after every twelve Gregorian calendar months. The idea perhaps is to take a break from the routine and reflect on events of the past twelve months to review, reassess, revise, retreat a bit if required, and resume. It is common for people to take a pledge on this occasion, to take corrective measures for improving their lifestyles and behavior, and to set new goals for themselves.

Wishing all the readers, family, and friends a very Happy Diwali. May the Lord enlighten all of us and relieve everyone from pain and misery. 

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The growth is slowing across the world. The engines of global growth - India and China – are also expected to slow down in 2024. Most European countries are flirting with recession. Canada is technically in recession. The US growth is stronger than estimates but not enough to support the

Growth decelerating

As per the latest World Economic Outlook report released by the World Bank, global growth has slowed down to 3% in 2023 from 3.5% recorded in the year 2022. The global economic growth is expected to further decelerate to 2.9% in 2024. The advanced economies have grown by 1.5% in 2023 against 2.6% in 2022. Their growth is likely to further decelerate to 1.4% in 2024. Economic growth in Emerging economies is also not accelerating. These economies are expected to grow at the rate of 4% in 2023 and 2024, against 4.1% in 2022.

Though the likelihood of a hard landing in the US may have receded, the risks to the growth still remain tilted to the downside.

Inflation persisting

The growth slowdown could be largely attributed to the effects of the monetary tightening measures taken since 2022. However, despite the sharp growth deceleration, global inflation is likely to stay above 5% in 2024 also. The World Bank expects global inflation to ease to 6.9% in 2023 and 5.8% in 2024, against 8.7% in 2022. In recent weeks, the inflationary expectations have risen again and could contribute—along with tight labor markets––to core inflation pressures persisting and requiring higher policy rates than expected. More climate and geopolitical shocks could cause additional food and energy price spikes.

Geoeconomic fragmentation – risks rising for emerging economies

The rising geoeconomic fragmentation is seen as a key risk to global growth and financial stability. Intensifying geoeconomic fragmentation could constrain the flow of commodities across markets, causing additional price volatility and complicating the green transition. Amid rising debt service costs, more than half of low-income developing countries are in or at high risk of debt distress.

No room for policy error

Given the still high inflation, unsustainable fiscal conditions and high cost of disinflation, there is little margin for error on the policy front. Central banks need to restore price stability while using policy tools to relieve potential financial stress when needed. effective monetary policy frameworks and communication are vital for anchoring expectations and minimizing the output costs of disinflation. Fiscal policymakers should rebuild budgetary room for maneuver and withdraw untargeted measures while protecting the vulnerable.

However, if we juxtapose these economic realities with the market performance, the dissonance is too stark. Formulating an investment policy that balances the macroeconomic and market realities is extremely challenging under the current circumstances.

I shall share my thoughts on this after the Diwali break. I will post next on 17^th November.

 I have often seen that when we fail to find solutions to our problems with the help of science and economics, we tend to look towards the heavens and seek to find answers in philosophy. It is not uncommon for businesses, administrators, and policymakers to seek divine intervention when science and economics are not helping to resolve a problem. The global policymakers and administrators seem to have reached such a crossroads one more time, where the conventional practices, accumulated knowledge, and past experiences do not appear to be of much help. Their actions appear driven more by hope than conviction.

The war in Ukraine; the economic slowdown in China; and the monetary policy dilemma in the US and India are some examples of problems where the administrators and policymakers seem to be hoping for divine intervention. I see the recent speech of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium and the minutes of the last meeting of the monetary policy committee of the Reserve Bank of India in this light.

After 16 months of aggressive monetary tightening, the Fed is not confident whether they have done enough; or they have overdone with tightening or they are lagging behind. He reiterated that the policy is restrictive enough to anchor inflationary expectations, but still expressed fears that the high inflation might get entrenched in the economy and may require treatment at the expense of higher unemployment. Chairman Powell indeed sounded more like a sailor trapped in a storm, when he said, “We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies”.

The situation in the US, as I see it from thirty-five thousand feet above sea level, is as follows:

·         The US Federal Reserve has hiked the key policy rates from near zero (0.25%) in March 2022 to 5.5% in August 2023. This is one of the steepest hikes in the past four decades.

·         The US financial system faces a serious challenge as MTM losses on the bond portfolios are accelerating; retail delinquencies have started to build up;

·         The positive real rates in the US are now 2% or higher. Despite these restrictive rates, the economy is not showing much sign of cooling down. The probability of growth acceleration in the US economy in the next couple of years is therefore remote.

·         Inflation continues to persist above 4% against a committed target of 2%. The household savings may therefore continue to shrink at an accelerated pace.

·         The mortgage rates are well above 7%, the highest in two decades. Housing affordability is at its worst in history.

·         The US government is paying close to US$1trn/year (about 20% of revenue) in interest on its borrowing, which is an unsustainable level.

·         The cost of borrowing (and interest burden) for the US government shall continue to rise for a few years at least as the Fed reduces its balance sheet, foreign governments cut on their demand for the US treasuries, and the rating of the US government’s debt face further downgrades. The fiscal pressures thus remain elevated.

·         The money supply (M1) in the US at US$19trn is about 4.5x of the pre-Covid levels. It may take years to normalize at the current speed of quantitative tightening (QT) by the Federal Reserve.

·        
The “Lower for Longer” narrative has metamorphosed quickly into “Higher for Longer”. However, analysts, economists, and strategists who are in their 30s may have never witnessed a major rate or inflation cycle in their professional careers. Their assessment of peak rates and peak inflation may be suffering from some limitations.

….to continue tomorrow

The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to hike the key federal fund rate by 25bps to 4.75% - 5% range. This is the eighth straight hike decision by the FOMC since the Fed started its fight against inflation in March 2022; bringing the rates to highest since September 2007.

Speaking to the press post FOMC meeting, the Fed chairman Jerome Powell, dismissed the speculation about any imminent rate cuts, stating “FOMC participants don't see rate cuts this year, it is not our baseline expectations”.

The post meeting statement of FOMC indicated that the policy may remain sufficiently restrictive though future hikes shall be data dependent. The statement read “The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time” and “The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy”.

The market participants interpreted the statement to imply that at least one more rate hike of 25bps will be done this year, before the Fed hits a pause button.

Powell emphasized that the Fed is “committed to restoring price stability, and all of the evidence says that the public has confidence that we will do so.” Speaking about the recent banking sector crisis, the chairman assured that “US banking system is sound and resilient” and the Fed is “prepared to use all of its tools to maintain stability.” He however admitted that recent banking turmoil is “likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which would in turn affect economic outcomes.”

The Fed maintained that the current pace of quantitative tightening (QT) shall continue, though recent emergency measures to mitigate the impact of the banking crisis have resulted in expansion of its balance sheet.

The US equities ended the session with a cut of 1.6%; while US dollar index 9DXY) lost 0.7%.

The present narrative in the global market is definitely not comforting. In the developed western economies, in particular, even the investors who took the classical moderate approach to asset allocation, e.g.,“100-age” (percent allocation to risk asset 100-investors’ age and the balance to fixed income) or “60:40” (60% risk assets and 40% fixed income for working people and vice versa for retirees) have witnessed material losses as both risk assets (equities, crypto, etc.) and fixed income (Bonds, REITS, etc.) have witnessed sharp correction. Reportedly, 60:40 Portfolio of US stocks and Bonds is down 21.6% in YTD2022, the worst performance since 1931. In India also, most balanced funds (funds that invest in a mix of equity and bonds) have yielded marginally positive or negative return YTD2022.

From whatever is happening around the world; and whatever is being prophesied about the future, at least the following five things are reasonably clear to me–

(i)    The economic growth is declining and it is not an immediate priority for the policy makers.

(ii)   The “innovative monetary policy” adopted post global financial crisis (GFC) has outlived their utility and is no longer effective. In fact the side effects of these policies are now appearing in most of the economies.

(iii)  No policy maker is in control of the economic events happening in their respective jurisdiction. Most have resorted to conventional means of policy management to tackle a situation which is largely created by unconventional policies, misplaced political aspirations; demographic transition; natural calamities; and egotistic pursuits of some political leaders.

(iv)   The cost of factors of production (wages, interest, material, and machines) is rising across the globe due to factors like demographic changes; under-investment in physical capacity building in the past 2 decades; climate change; and unwinding of unprecedented monetary stimulus.

(v)    The Indian markets are walking on a tightrope (of hope) passing through a deep valley of concerns like, worsening global macro; poor domestic macro; worsening valuation-corporate fundamental matrix; and tightening liquidity etc. The best case for markets is that it will cross the valley of concerns with no or little damage. The worst case is that it will lose balance and fall down. Generally speaking, the risk reward of investing in Indian markets is not very encouraging at this point in time.

In my view, the markets have already called the Central Bankers’ bluff, as I had expected five months ago (see Markets will call central bankers' bluff). There is no evidence of aggressive rate hikes leashing the prices; while growth has been crushed.

In the words of reputable William Hunt Gross (popularly known as Bill Gross), without interest rate “carry” (the positive difference between 2 and 10yr treasuries, for instance), our half-century-old, financed-based economy cannot thrive. In the 1980s the then Fed chairman Paul Volcker slayed 13% inflation by introducing a negative carry of 500bps or more for 3yrs. This resulted in a deep 3yr recession. Today central bankers are employing the same tactics, but our significantly higher levered economy cannot withstand the same amount of negative carry. The question is how much and for how long…..while inflation is the Fed’s seemingly solitary focus at the moment, economic growth and financial stability may soon gain equal importance……Recent events in UK, cracks in Chinese property based economy, war and a natural gas freeze in Europe, and a super strong dollar accelerating inflation in emerging market economies, point to the conclusion that today’s 2022 global economy in no way resembles Volcker’s in 1979. A negative carry of 500bps now would slay inflation but create a global depression."

Besides, Volcker tightened with the world progressing towards the end of the cold war era. Today, the world is entering an era of a fresh and perhaps more intensive cold war.

In India also, fissures have been reported in the Monetary Policy Committee. At least two members of the MPC have warned against unmindful rate hikes in the current circumstances.

My feeling is that central bankers would be forced to review their tactics and USD will revert to its rightful place. The only uncertainty is if this would happen well in time to avert a global depression.

Considering these circumstances, what should be the strategy of a small investor like me!

More on this tomorrow…

The market participants in India must be relaxed after a strong equity market rally in the past 4-5weeks; and stable INR and bond markets. To that extent the RBI has played its part rather well. It has repeatedly reassured the markets about its commitment to the economic growth and stability in the financial markets. Despite turmoil in the global energy and food markets and geopolitical concerns, the RBI managed to contain the volatility in currency and debt market to very moderate levels.

With this background in mind, the market participants are obviously complacent to the likely outcome of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of RBI this week. It seems to be a consensus view that the MPC may use some stronger words to express the concerns about rising prices and exacerbated fiscal pressures, but may stop short of hiking policy rates or changing its accommodative policy stance. Given the fragility of the economic recovery and elevated global uncertainty, the last thing RBI would want to do is to make a disruptive move.

Nonetheless, the participants in the equity markets must be keeping a close watch on the developments in the bond markets. The bond yields have been rising ever since the RBI announced government’s borrowing calendar for 1HFY23. The government is likely to borrow Rs8.45trn form the market in next 6months. This is about 59% of the total budgeted borrowings for FY23. A view is developing that notwithstanding the robust tax collections and consistent alignment of fuel prices to the market prices, the government might need to borrow more than the budgeted due to higher farm and food subsidies. Accordingly, the yield curve in India is very steep in the 1 to 10yr maturity band and mostly flat in the 12-30yrs maturity band. This is in sharp contrast to the inverted yield curve in the US.

As per the conventional wisdom, an inversion in yield curves (2yr yields higher than 10yr yields) usually precedes recession. A steeper yield curve on the other hand reflects expectations of a stronger economic activity and therefore higher inflation in the short term.

The impact of a steeper/inverted yield curve could however be different. As per the conventional wisdom the stock market factors in the future events well in advance. The earnings forecasts and stock prices are adjusted to factor in all known future events. Of course there is subjectivity in the analysts’ assessment and pricing methods used, recognition of the event itself is usually uniform, with very few contrarian views.

It is therefore reasonable to believe that the US equities are already pricing in a recession in next six months and may not see much correction from the current level despite few rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Whereas, the Indian equities might be pricing in a stronger economy and there could be some scope for disappointment. A rise in benchmark yields to 7.25-7.5% (as presently forecasted by most analysts) could cool the heated equity markets.

However, this view is subject to deftness of RBI in managing the bond market. Higher FII allocation; continued use of innovative tools; and a sharper global commodity price correction could keep the bond yields under check (or even result in lower yields) and fuel the equity prices further.

Whatever be the case, for sometimes the bond market may be the guiding factor for equity markets.