RBI status quo - A Prudent Pause or a Risky Delay?

The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee wrapped up its 60th meeting on Wednesday with a unanimous vote to hold the policy repo rate steady at 5.25%. The SDF rate stays at 5.00%, the MSF and Bank Rate at 5.50%. MPC maintained a neutral stance, while keeping a flexibility to act if need arose.

Governor Sanjay Malhotra termed the MPC decision as one of prudent watchfulness, emphasizing that the Indian economy confronts a genuine supply shock from the West Asia conflict, and with core inflation still muted and fundamentals sound, the MPC chose to observe rather than act.” On the surface, this reads as responsible central banking. Below the surface, several questions deserve sharper scrutiny. In particular, the following points need to be kept in mind by investors.

Is this a prolonged pause?

The language in the MPC’s statement is telling. The MPC “decided to continue with the neutral stance, retaining the flexibility to respond judiciously to incoming information.” To me it translates to – “no rate cut is on the table for now, and the Committee is giving itself maximum optionality.”

The RBI is effectively signaling that the next move — whether a cut or a hike — depends entirely on how the West Asia conflict evolves. It explicitly lists supply chains, energy infrastructure damage, shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and potential El Niño conditions as risk factors. Until these clarify, it is reasonable to expect RBI to stay on pause.

In my view, a prolonged pause — potentially through H1 FY27 — is the base case. If El Niño materializes and energy prices stay elevated, the next move could even be a hike, though that remains a tail risk. Rate cut expectations should be firmly pushed to H2 FY27 at the earliest.

Is the Inflation Forecast Adequate?

The RBI has projected CPI inflation for FY27 at 4.6%, with a Q3 spike to 5.2%. Core inflation is seen at 4.4%. At first glance, this appears to meaningfully revise up from the recent sub-4% prints. But look harder and the forecast raises uncomfortable questions.

The statement acknowledges that crude oil price volatility is a major upside risk — but the baseline assumption appears to embed a relatively contained near-term impact. Retail petrol and diesel prices have not been revised as of the statement, even as LPG, commercial fuels and premium petrol variants have already seen increases. If the government is forced to pass through higher crude costs to retail consumers — a political decision, not an economic one — inflation could easily breach the Q3 estimate of 5.2%.

The Governor also acknowledged that the Indian rupee depreciated more in 2025-26 than in prior years, even with relatively stronger fundamentals. A materially weaker USD/INR naturally amplifies imported inflation — particularly for crude, edible oils, and fertilizers. The statement reiterates that RBI policy is to smooth volatility, not target levels. But if the rupee faces sustained depreciation pressure from FPI outflows (US$5.4 billion already in April 1–6 alone), the inflation math becomes harder. The forecast does not appear to explicitly model a significantly weaker rupee scenario.

The 4.6% average forecast looks understated if oil stays elevated and USDINR weakens further. A realistic upside scenario puts FY27 average CPI at 4.9–5.2%. The Q3 estimate of 5.2% may prove to be a floor, not a peak. Investors may not assume monetary easing on the basis of this forecast alone.

Is the Growth Forecast Realistic?

The RBI projects real GDP growth of 6.9% for FY27, stepping down from the estimated 7.6% in FY26. Quarter-by-quarter, growth is expected to trough at 6.7% in Q2 before recovering to 7.2% by Q4.

The statement points to robust rabi crop prospects and healthy reservoir levels (47% of capacity vs. 40% a year ago) as support factors. But ground reports of untimely rains and hailstorm damage to standing rabi crops across several key producing states — Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan — suggest the actual rabi outturn may disappoint against the Second Advance Estimate. The RBI's own footnote flags that rabi foodgrain production growth of 3.0% could be an overestimate. Separately, the El Niño risk to Kharif 2027 is flagged as a concern but remains outside the baseline assumption. If both rabi disappoints and Kharif is weak, rural income stress will weigh on private consumption and demand — which the RBI is banking on as a growth driver.

Merchandise exports contracted 0.2% during January-February 2026, with the US (India's largest market) registering a 17.5% contraction. Trade deficit widened sharply to US$61.8 billion in Jan-Feb vs. US$37.1 billion a year ago. The RBI's own data shows FPI outflows of US$16.5 billion in FY26 and a further US$5.4 billion in just the first week of FY27. The 6.9% growth projection implicitly assumes these headwinds are manageable — but if global demand weakens further and the conflict prolongs, the export channel offers little buffer.

The government has budgeted central capex to rise 11.5% in FY27, with effective capital expenditure (including state transfers) growing 22.1%. This provides a genuine growth floor that partly justifies the RBI's relatively sanguine baseline. But public capex cannot offset simultaneously weaker exports, a stressed rural economy, and a cautious private sector.

In my view, 6.9% growth for FY27 is achievable only under benign assumptions — conflict contained, El Niño averted, rupee stabilized, rabi harvests close to estimates. Strip out even two of these assumptions and growth is more likely in the 6.0–6.3% range. The RBI appears to have incorporated a partial haircut from 7.6% but may not have gone far enougWhat Else Did the RBI Announce?

What else RBI announced

Beyond rates, the RBI announced several regulatory and market development measures. On capital adequacy, it proposed removing the NPA provisioning condition for inclusion of quarterly profits in CRAR — a modest relief for bank capital reporting. The Investment Fluctuation Reserve (IFR) requirement is also being dispensed with for commercial banks, given that they already maintain market risk capital charges.

On market development, the term money market is being opened up to non-bank entities (AIFIs, NBFCs, housing finance companies), which should deepen market participation and improve monetary transmission from overnight to longer-term rates. MSME onboarding on TReDS platforms is being simplified by removing the due diligence requirement — a small but meaningful ease-of-business move for smaller firms.

Conclusion

The RBI maintained the status quo on the expected lines. But “wait and watch” has its own risks in a fast-moving geopolitical environment. Three gaps stand out in today's statement:

·         The pause is likely longer than markets expect.

·         Inflation risks are real and may be underweighted. The rupee, oil, and El Niño form a perfect storm.

·         Growth of 6.9% relies on a lot going right. Agriculture, exports, and financial markets are all flashing amber.

Investors may do better adequately discounting RBI forecasts and position accordingly.

 

Active vs. Passive Investing

In my recent posts, I have discussed the quiet anxiety gripping many investors — portfolios underperforming, cherished stocks going nowhere, and the old debates returning with fresh urgency. Yesterday, we tackled “buy & hold vs. flow with the current”. Today, let us address another debate that has been filling up investment forums and social media timelines alike: should you be an active investor or simply go passive?

As with most either/or questions in investing, the most sensible answer lies not in choosing one side — but in combining both, thoughtfully.

First, Let Us Understand the Two Sides

Passive investing is straightforward. You buy an index fund or an ETF — say, one that tracks the Nifty 50 or the BSE Sensex — and you simply mirror the market. No stock picking, no timing, no fund manager calls. Your return is roughly what the index delivers. As we noted earlier this week, the Nifty 50 has returned about 8.7% CAGR over the past five years. That is not spectacular, but it is honest, low-cost, and requires almost no effort.

Active investing, on the other hand, involves making deliberate choices — selecting specific stocks or actively managed mutual funds with the goal of beating the index. A skilled fund manager, or a well-researched individual investor, aims to identify opportunities that the broader market has not yet fully priced in. The NSE Small Cap 100, for instance, has returned 12.9% CAGR over the same five-year period — a meaningful outperformance over the Nifty 50 — but with considerably more volatility along the way.

Both approaches have delivered results. Neither is universally superior. And that is precisely the point.

The Case for Passive — It Is Harder to Beat the Market Than You Think

Decades of global data tell us something humbling: the majority of active fund managers fail to consistently beat their benchmark indices over long periods, especially after accounting for fees. In India too, while several funds have outperformed in bursts, very few have done so consistently across full market cycles.

For a small investor with limited time, limited access to research, and limited tolerance for volatility, a simple index fund offers a clean, honest proposition: you will not beat the market, but you will not badly lag it either. Over a long horizon, that is a perfectly respectable outcome.

Passive investing also removes two of the biggest enemies of wealth creation — overtrading driven by emotion, and the steep cost of frequent mistakes.

The Case for Active — Alpha Does Exist, If You Know Where to Look

And yet, passive investing alone leaves returns on the table.

India is not a perfectly efficient market. Opportunities exist — in mid-cap and small-cap companies, in sectors going through temporary distress, in businesses that are growing quietly without the spotlight of institutional coverage. A patient, well-researched active strategy can and does generate alpha — returns above and beyond what the index delivers.

The key phrase, of course, is well-researched. Blind stock picking is not active investing — it is speculation dressed in a suit. True active investing requires understanding the business, tracking it regularly, and making decisions based on logic rather than noise.

Active mutual funds, when chosen wisely — based on consistent long-term track record, fund manager quality, and investment philosophy — have also delivered meaningfully better returns than indices for Indian investors, particularly in the flexi-cap and small-cap categories.

Why Your Portfolio Needs Both

Think of your investment portfolio like a cricket team. You need reliable, consistent performers — players who will not win you the match single-handedly, but will also not throw it away. That is your passive core. Index funds, large-cap ETFs — steady, low-cost, dependable.

But you also need match-winners — those who can change the game on a given day. That is your active sleeve. Carefully chosen stocks or actively managed funds, where you have genuine conviction and are prepared to monitor performance.

The passive core gives your portfolio stability and market participation. The active sleeve gives it the potential for outperformance. Together, they create a portfolio that is neither recklessly aggressive nor unnecessarily timid.

A Simple Way to Think About the Split

There is no single correct ratio, but here is a reasonable starting framework for a small investor:

Allocate a meaningful portion — perhaps 50 to 60 percent — of your equity portfolio to passive instruments. Low-cost Nifty 50 or Nifty Next 50 index funds are a good starting point. This is your foundation. It requires no monitoring and delivers market returns reliably.

The remaining 40 to 50 percent can go into active strategies — whether that means a few carefully chosen direct stocks where you have done your homework, or two to three actively managed mutual funds with strong long-term track records across market cycles.

Over time, as your understanding and confidence grow, you can fine-tune this mix. But the principle remains: anchor with passive, seek alpha with active.

The Real Enemy Is Not Your Strategy — It Is Your Behavior

Here is a hard truth that applies to both active and passive investors equally: the biggest destroyer of returns is not the wrong strategy — it is the wrong behavior.

Panic-selling a perfectly good index fund during a correction. Chasing last year’s top-performing active fund. Abandoning an active stock pick after one bad quarter. These behaviors — driven by fear, impatience, or greed — erase the benefits of whichever strategy you have chosen.

A blended portfolio, with a stable passive core, actually helps here. When your active bets go through a rough patch — and they will — the steady performance of your index funds prevents you from making rash decisions with the entire portfolio.

The Bottom Line

Active vs. passive is not a battle to be won. It is a balance to be struck.

A portfolio that is entirely passive leaves genuine opportunities unexplored. A portfolio that is entirely active carries unnecessary risk and demands more time and skill than most investors realistically have.

Build a core that tracks the market reliably. Layer it with active positions where you have real conviction. Review both honestly and regularly. And resist the urge to abandon either when markets get difficult.

That is not a compromise — that is a strategy.

 

Buy & hold vs Flow with the current

Few days ago, we spoke about investors reassessing their "family silver" — stocks held for decades that have delivered little or no return in recent years (see here). This naturally brings us to one of the oldest debates in investing: should you simply buy good stocks and hold them forever, or should you keep adjusting your portfolio as the world around you changes?

The honest answer is: there is no one-size-fits-all rule. Both strategies have merit, and the right choice depends largely on the individual business you own — not on any fixed philosophy.

Businesses Are Not Static

Think of a business the way you would think of a living organism. It must adapt to survive. The world it operates in keeps changing — technology evolves, consumer tastes shift, new competitors emerge, and regulators rewrite the rules of the game. A company that refuses to change with the times risks becoming irrelevant, or worse, obsolete.

History gives us stark reminders. Kodak dominated photography for a century, then vanished almost overnight when digital cameras arrived. Videoconferencing killed many travel businesses; e-commerce reshaped retail. Closer home, demonetization and GST disrupted entire industries. Technological change does not knock politely before entering.

Beyond external disruption, internal factors matter too — a change in leadership, a family feud in a promoter-driven company, or a shift in strategic priorities can quietly damage a business’s future even when the headlines look fine.

So, When Should You Hold? When Should You Move?

·         Here is a practical and time-tested approach: write down why you bought a stock in the first place.

Before you invest, note the key reasons behind your decision. Was it the company's market leadership? Its superior product? Its strong balance sheet? Its expanding addressable market? Whatever your reason, put it in writing.

Then, revisit those notes periodically — at least once a year, or whenever something significant happens in the business or industry.

As long as the original reasons remain valid, stay invested. If the stock has actually exceeded your expectations — growing faster, dominating more of the market, launching new products — consider adding more.

However, if the stock is no longer delivering on the promise that made you invest, it may be time to exit. Not in panic, not out of frustration — but calmly and with clear reasoning.

A Simple Framework

Here is how to think about it:

If you invested in a market leader, stay invested as long as that company remains the leader in its space. Leadership is hard to build and, when intact, it compounds beautifully.

If you invested in a potential leader — a company you believed was on the path to becoming dominant — stay invested as long as it continues moving in that direction. If it loses its way or gets overtaken, reassess.

The moment the “why” behind your investment breaks down, the case for holding weakens significantly.

The Real Problem with "Buy & Hold"

"Buy and hold" is often misunderstood. It does not mean buy and forget. It means buy with conviction, and hold that conviction accountable. The investors who have struggled recently are not those who held for the long term — they are those who held without reviewing whether their original assumptions still held true.

Stocks like TCS, HDFC Bank, or Asian Paints are not bad businesses. But if you bought them five years ago without tracking whether the tailwinds that drove them earlier were still in play, you may have missed better opportunities elsewhere — without even realizing it.

The Bottom Line

Investing is not a one-time decision — it is an ongoing process. Neither blind holding nor frantic churning serves the investor well.

Buy with a clear reason. Hold with discipline. Review with honesty. Exit without ego.

That, in a nutshell, is how you stay invested intelligently — whether markets are calm or choppy.

 

FY26: The worst fears came true

The financial year 2025-26 started on a disruptive note with President Trump announcing a hike/imposition of tariffs on most of the USA’s imports from 9^th April 2025. During the course of the year, the Trump administrations made several changes to the tariff policy, creating an environment of heightened uncertainty amongst trading partners of the US. India was one of the worst affected countries. Though the Supreme Court of the US ruled against Trump's tariff policy in February 2026, the uncertainty still remains.

The technological advancements in the sphere of artificial intelligence and advanced computing during the year also disrupted Indian equity markets, in more than one way. The IT services sector stocks suffered valuation de-rating on clouding of growth prospects. Foreign investors accelerated the shift of their portfolio from Indian equities (due to lack of meaningful AI or Advanced computing opportunities) to the markets like South Korea and the US.

The US and Israel coalition attacked Iran on 28^th February 2026. The war escalated materially in the following weeks and still continues. This war has disrupted global supply chains. Energy supplies are impaired and prices have spiked sharply. Several countries are reporting shortages of key raw materials. Manufacturers are staring at a summer of discontent. Consumers are struggling with shortages and higher prices.

I had written in my first post of FY26, “Financial Year 2024-25 (FY25), may be recorded in the annals of history as a watershed year for global politics, geopolitics, markets and the financial system. The events that occurred during the past twelve months have opened up significant possibilities for emergence of a new global order. Although the contours of the likely new global order are yet to begin taking a shape, it appears that fight for dominance over technology; endeavor to gain fiscal strength; interventionist democracy where the state exercises intensive control over citizens; and top priority to energy security would be four key characteristics of the new order.” (see here)

The actual scenario is playing out mostly on these lines only. Also, in my CY2026 outlook post, I had mentioned the following five key risks for 2026.

·         Sharp global growth slowdown

·         Unexpected inflation resurgence

·         Fiscal slippage or policy inconsistency

·         Geopolitical escalation impacting energy or trade

·         Financial system stress from isolated credit events

It appears that four out of these five risks have already materialized in the first quarter of 2026 itself. The financial year has ended with the markets still on edge.

Key highlights of FY26

·         The equity markets in India yielded negative returns for FY26, with Nifty returns being zero for the past two years (FY25-FY26). Indian bonds and currency markets were also notably weak and yielded negative returns for the FY26. FY26 was one of the worst years for INR. Precious metals were the notable outperformers for the year. Indian equities and currency were one of the worst performers globally.

·         Although the economy remained resilient, the corporate earnings failed to meet the expectations for the second consecutive year. The earnings disappointment came despite favorable monetary conditions; good monsoon, low inflation and recovery in rural demand.

·         Indian corporates raised a record Rs1.79 trillion from IPOs during FY26. Besides, Rs510bn through qualified institutional placements. The trend of corporate deleveraging continued.

·         Negative FPI flows also dominated the headlines. FY26 was one of the few years when FPIs were overall net sellers – accounting for the primary and secondary markets for both equity and debt.

·         The balance of power, in terms of equity ownership, continued to shift from the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to Indian household investors (Retail). The ownership of FPIs in the listed Indian equities fell to a 14 year low of ~16%; while retail investors’ ownership in listed Indian equities increased to a two decade high of ~25%.

·         Lending rates eased 50-75bps, lower than the policy rate cut of 100bps. RBI maintained comfortable liquidity through a variety of measures. Deposit rates were also lower by 60-65bps.

·         Globally, some notable financial market events in FY26 were – (i) sharp outperformance of Asian equities, especially South Korea and Japan; (ii) sharp rise in the Japanese bond yields; (iii) the Fed pausing after cutting 75bps during the year against the consensus expectation of another 50bps cut; and (iv) Gold (+49%) and Silver (+120%) rallied hard, while bitcoin prices fell ~20%.

·         Geopolitical tension that started with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, and escalated with Israel raiding Palestinian territories in 2023, continued to rise in 2026 with intense war between the US & Israel coalition and Iran. A swift change of regime in Venezuela was another notable geopolitical event of FY26.

Stock markets – Worst year since FY20

The Benchmark Nifty50 ended FY26 at 22336.40, 5.1% lower yoy; making two return zero for Nifty. NSE Midcap 100 managed to end the year with marginal gains (+1.9%); while NSE Small cap 100 index (-5.5%) fell in tandem with Nifty. The overall market capitalization of the NSE was marginally higher (+0.1%) at Rs411.25 trillion; however, in USD terms the market capitalization was lower by 10% at US$4.34trn at end of FY26 vs US$4.8trn a year ago.

·         The popular investment themes of FY25 (Defense, clean energy, roads, railways, etc.) underperformed in FY26.

·         PSU Banks, Metals, Healthcare, Auto, and Energy were the top performing sectors. Realty, IT Services, FMCG, Private Banks, and Services were the notable underperformers.

·         International equity funds and Gold ETFs and Silver ETFs, delivered strong performance, sharply outperforming the equity markets

·         Most mutual funds managed to outperform Nifty 50 by a decent margin.

·         Nifty 50 valuations are now closer to long term averages with one year forward PER at ~20x, Price to Book at ~3.7x, Market Cap to GDP at 119%, and the spread between Bond yield and Earning yield has narrowed in recent months.

·         Long-term (5yr rolling CAGR) Nifty returns collapsed to 8.7% at the end of FY26, lowest since FY20.

Earnings growth – continues to lose momentum

Nifty EPS growth disappointed in FY26 also, after recording almost no growth in FY25. FY27e earning growth is also likely to be in mid-single digits. The earnings in the five years FY22-FY26e have grown at 15% CAGR.

FPIs secondary market flows negative for unprecedented third consecutive year

Though the overall institutional flows in the secondary markets remained positive consistently, persistent FPI outflows are becoming a cause of worry. In FY26 FPIs were net sellers in the secondary market to the tune of Rs 2.5 trn, while DII net bought Rs8.5trn, resulting in a record net institutional inflow of Rs5.98trn. FPIs have been net sellers in the Indian secondary market for three consecutive years (FY24-FY26) now, resulting in a net 3 year outflow of Rs6.2trn.

Debt and currency – distinctly weak

INR was one of the worst global currencies in the world, losing 8.4% against USD, 13.3% against GBP, 17.7% against EUR and 7.5% against JPY. The yield curve lifted higher and steepened sharply. The benchmark yields ended higher at 6.96%) vs 6.58% at end of FY25) despite monetary easing. Lending and deposit rates were lower.

Commodities – A buoyant year

The year FY26 was a buoyant year for commodities. Precious metals, energy, soft commodities and industrial metals ended mostly higher for the year. USD weakness, tariff war and geopolitical conflicts impacted the supply chains and cost curves. The commodity prices were thus higher despite a marked slowdown in Chinese and European economies. Silver (+120%), Gold (+49%), WTI Crude (+43%), Aluminum (+37%), Copper (+27%), Wheat (+14%) were some notable gainers. Sugar (-20%) was a notable loser.

·         Gold and Silver prices have shown a declining trend in the last couple of months.

·         Soft commodity prices are mostly back to pre-Ukraine war levels or even lower.

·         Natural Gas prices are at 2021 levels, despite sharp rise in crude oil prices and supply disruptions.

Cryptos – A bad year

FY26 was a bad year for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, the largest and most popular cryptocurrency, ended the year with over 20% loss, while several smaller cryptocurrencies ended much lower. Cryptocurrencies however continued to gain wider acceptance from governments, regulators, financial institutions, market participants, and investors. More and more governments are now inclined to view crypto as a legitimate asset.

Economic Growth – a widespread slowdown

Both the engines of global growth in the post Global Financial Crisis (GFC) era, viz., China and India, are now experiencing some fatigue. Though the Indian economy continues to show resilience, the geopolitical conditions are indicating a widespread slowdown. With large European economies like Germany, France and UK barely growing, Japan and Latin American economies slowing and the US economy also showing distinct signs of an impending slowdown in 2025, the global economic growth has certainly entered a slow lane in FY26.

Is it already time to take out family silver?

Convention wisdom says, “if you can see a financial crisis approaching near you, make an assessment of your resources well in advance.” This preparedness involves getting the disposable assets valued at realizable value.

In the past one week, I have received several messages indicating that the investors are sensing a crisis approaching near them. The confidence is shaken. The argument has shifted from “this is a temporary blip; long term India story is intact” to “alas! even a fixed deposit would have yielded better return”.

They have taken out their family silver and are assessing if they should still be owning it. Stock holding cherished for decades, viz., HDFC Bank, TCS, Asian paints, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Kotak Bank, etc., are being evaluated as these have yielded no or negative return over the past five years.

Also, the never-ending debates like “buy & hold vs flow with the current”; “large cap vs small cap”, “active investment vs passive investment strategies”, “direct investing vs mutual funds” have returned to hog the headlines. The social media timelines are inundated with investing memes, suggesting that several of “active investors” and traders have suffered material losses or sub-optimal returns in the recent months.

For record, the benchmark Nifty50 has yielded an ex-dividend return of 8.7% CAGR for the past 5 years; marginally better than a 5year bank deposit. However, the NSE Small cap 100 index has returned a much better yield of 12.9% CAGR (ex-dividend). Most equity oriented mutual funds have also managed to provide returns in the 11-15% CAGR range. The total return should ideally be not much of a problem for an investor.

The problem lies, in my view, in the fact that most investors were overweight in the stocks which did very well historically but have yielded no return in the past five years. They did not reorient their portfolios in tandem with the market trends for tax consideration, high conviction in their traditional holdings, and/or lack of market awareness. This has resulted in their portfolios earning sub-optimal returns. The current market volatility and clouded market outlook for FY27 has made these investors jittery. This is even more true for the investors who have low risk tolerance and/or may need to sell stocks to meet their professional or personal requirements.

  

A perfect storm

Even before the Iran war erupted around late February 2026—now in its third week—Indian equities were already struggling. Over the past 12 months, the Nifty 50 has delivered negative returns in USD terms (around -4% to -13% depending on exact endpoints, with the Nifty 50 USD index showing clear underperformance). Global investors, facing a combination of high valuations earlier, slowing domestic momentum, and now geopolitical shocks, have been in full exit mode. FPI outflows have accelerated sharply this month alone.

For the average investor, the natural question is straightforward: What now? Keep SIPs running into equities? Pause fresh investments until the dust settles? Or actively trim exposure and wait for clearer skies?

The honest answer: It depends heavily on your time horizon, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, and overall portfolio construction. A young investor with a 10+ year view might see this as noise in a long bull cycle. Someone nearing retirement or with high leverage might need to act defensively right away.

That said, everyone should recognize the same reality: India appears headed into a genuine "perfect storm" this summer. Multiple headwinds are converging, and they could compound each other in painful ways.

1. Energy Shock from the Middle East Conflict

The ongoing war has kept crude above $100/barrel for extended periods, with Brent hovering in the $100–104 range amid Hormuz risks and supply disruptions. India, still importing ~85–88% of its oil needs (even with recent diversification), faces a direct hit. Higher energy costs feed straight into inflation, widen the current account deficit (potentially by 0.4–0.5% of GDP per $10/bbl sustained rise), pressure the rupee (now near record lows around ₹92.40–92.50), and squeeze corporate margins in fuel-sensitive sectors. Logistics costs rise, consumption softens, and government subsidies could balloon if retail fuel prices aren't fully passed through.

2. Monsoon Risk from Emerging El Niño

Weather agencies (IMD, NOAA, others) are signaling a high probability of El Niño developing by mid-2026, potentially in the first or second half of the monsoon season. El Niño years often bring deficient or erratic rainfall in India—sometimes 10%+ below normal. Coming on top of fertilizer and agro-chemical shortages triggered by Middle East disruptions, this could deliver a double blow to rural India: lower output and higher input costs. Rural incomes would suffer, food inflation could spike again, and overall consumption demand (which drives ~60% of GDP) would weaken further.

3. Growth Slowdown and Fiscal Strain

Consensus FY27 growth expectations have already softened from 7%+ pre-conflict to around 6.5–7% if oil stays elevated for quarters. Slower investment and consumption, combined with fiscal pressures (weaker tax buoyancy, higher subsidy outgo), limit the government's room to stimulate. Export growth faces headwinds from global slowdowns, tariffs, and logistics issues in the region.

4. Balance of Payments Vulnerabilities

This is perhaps the most underappreciated risk right now.

·         Import bill swells from energy inflation.

·         Remittances (~$50bn+ annually from the Gulf, ~3–3.5% of GDP) face downside if instability forces job losses or returns among the 9+ million Indian diaspora there.

·         Exports to the region slow.

·         Capital outflows continue as FPIs sell amid uncertainty.

A 2013-style BoP scare isn't the base case yet, but sustained high oil, remittance hit, and weak inflows could push the CAD toward 2.5–3% of GDP or worse, adding rupee depreciation and tighter liquidity.

Bottom Line for Investors

Caution is warranted—full stop.

This isn't the time for aggressive bets or leverage. Focus on these principles:

·         Avoid leverage entirely in this environment—margin calls and forced selling amplify downturns.

·         Prioritize sustainability and solvency when picking stocks: strong balance sheets, low/no debt, consistent cash flows, and pricing power to pass on costs. Growth at any price looks riskier now.

·         Diversify thoughtfully: Don't abandon equities, but consider tilting toward defensives (FMCG, pharma, utilities) or quality large-caps that can weather storms.

·         Build dry powder: If you're sitting on cash or fixed-income buffers, that's fine—opportunities often emerge after volatility peaks.

·         Stay invested if you can afford to wait: For long-term SIP investors with no near-term needs, systematic accumulation through dips has historically rewarded patience in India.

Markets hate uncertainty, and right now uncertainty is high. The storm may pass faster than feared if de-escalation happens, or it could linger and test resolve. Either way, protect capital first—preservation sets the stage for future compounding.

Stay sharp, review your allocations, and let’s see how the next few weeks unfold.

Where India stands in the Iran war

India's stance in the ongoing Middle East conflict is shaped by two core realities: acute economic exposure, particularly to energy supplies and markets, and the need for deft foreign policy maneuvering to maintain strong relations with the United States, Israel, and Iran without alienating any key partner.

Though not a direct participant, India has deep strategic and economic stakes that have drawn New Delhi into active diplomacy with all sides. The government has pursued a classic hedging strategy—balancing deepening security and technology ties with the US and Israel, while preserving longstanding energy and connectivity links with Iran and engaging Gulf allies such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman.

New Delhi has avoided full alignment with any camp, consistently calling for de-escalation, dialogue, and the unimpeded flow of trade through critical routes like the Strait of Hormuz to safeguard its energy imports. This reflects India's broader evolution from strict non-alignment to flexible multi-alignment, forging partnerships with major powers while safeguarding strategic autonomy.

Economic Impact

The conflict is already imposing significant costs across several channels.

Energy Security Risks

India relies on imports for about 85–88% of its crude oil needs, with the Middle East traditionally accounting for roughly half (though recent diversification has routed ~70% of crude outside the Strait of Hormuz). For LPG, around 60% of consumption is imported, with ~90% of those volumes transiting Hormuz—primarily from Qatar and other Gulf states. Any prolonged disruption or blockade could sharply curtail supplies of crude, LPG, LNG, and key chemicals/aluminum/ feedstocks, threatening energy security.

Sustained high oil prices (currently above $100 per barrel, with Brent around $104) are fueling inflation, widening the current account deficit, and exerting downward pressure on the rupee. Industrial sectors dependent on imported raw materials—chemicals, fertilizers, and others—face production bottlenecks, while agriculture could suffer from higher input costs. LPG shortages would hit millions of households and small businesses that rely on it for daily cooking.

Financial Markets and Investor Confidence

Equity markets have declined amid the uncertainty, with foreign portfolio investors accelerating outflows that were already underway. The rupee has weakened to multi-year lows (around ₹92.50–92.60 per USD in mid-March), amplifying import costs and debt-servicing burdens.

Remittances and Employment

The Gulf hosts millions of Indian workers, whose remittances—exceeding $50 billion annually—bolster India's external accounts. Instability risks job losses, reduced flows, and safety concerns for the diaspora. Indian companies with substantial revenue from Gulf markets (goods, services, construction) are seeing contracts delayed or canceled.

Potential Role in Reconstruction

India's established presence in the region positions it well for post-conflict infrastructure and energy rebuilding projects, though it will face stiff competition from China.

Net Economic Impact

The combined pressures—inflation, currency depreciation, trade disruptions, and remittance risks—threaten to dampen growth. Rough estimates suggest that every $10 per barrel increase in crude prices widens the current account deficit and inflation by 40–50 basis points while shaving 30–40 basis points off GDP growth.

Foreign Policy Implications

India's strategic autonomy is under real test. Stronger security and technology cooperation with the US and Israel coexists with the need to protect historic ties with Iran—vital for energy diversification, Chabahar port access, and regional connectivity.

Stability remains paramount: safeguarding the diaspora, keeping sea lanes open, and preventing logistics breakdowns all require nuanced diplomacy rather than picking sides in a polarized conflict.

Which Outcome Serves India Best?

A diminished US role in the region could, in theory, foster greater autonomy among Gulf states, open East-West trade corridors, and reduce over-reliance on any single superpower.

Yet such a shift carries risks: a power vacuum might breed instability, empower non-state actors, and drive even higher energy prices—outcomes that would harm India's interests far more than any short-term geopolitical gain.

Iran remains important for India's long-term diversification (potential oil/LNG supplies, Chabahar linking to Central Asia). A fractured Middle East would likely compound economic setbacks through sustained high oil prices and supply volatility.

In essence, India is wisely maintaining a neutral, diplomatic posture to protect its energy security, economic stability, and strategic flexibility. Prolonged instability would impose net costs far outweighing any hypothetical benefits from a weakened US presence or an Iranian setback. 

The war and beyond

For the past 17 days, a significant and highly intense conflict has unfolded in the Middle East. This war is multifaceted, encompassing military strikes, counterattacks, intricate narratives, and propaganda from all sides. The aggressors in this war are the United States of America (U.S.) and the State of Israel, while the defender is the Islamic Republic of Iran. While the U.S. is a secular state, under President Donald Trump, there have been calls to promote a stronger Christian identity. Israel, as a Jewish state, and Iran, an Islamic state, have starkly different ideologies but share a long history of religious and political conflicts rooted in their common Abrahamic heritage.

The relationship between Israel, the U.S., and Iran has been contentious for decades. A key event in this ongoing tension was the 2025 military confrontation between Israel and Iran. On June 13, 2025, Israel bombed Iran’s military and nuclear sites, killing several military officers, scientists, and civilians. After 12 days of intense fighting, the U.S. mediated a ceasefire.

However, the current conflict cannot be reduced to religious differences, counter-terrorism, or self-defense. Instead, it appears to be part of a broader U.S. strategy to:

·         Control the global energy market and key trade routes,

·         Maintain geopolitical and economic supremacy over Russia and China, and

·         Prevent the rise of autonomous economic powers in the Middle East.

With Iraq’s military power decimated and Pakistan’s strategic assets severely weakened during Operation Sindoor, Iran remains the only truly independent and potent military power in the region. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has also highlighted Western Europe’s energy vulnerabilities, further underscoring the importance of controlling energy resources and strategic trade routes such as the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Achieving this would give the U.S. a decisive edge in global geopolitics.

Despite the theoretical strength of this strategy, its implementation has not been without complications. The first major setback came when coalition forces killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, on the first day of the conflict. This act, combined with the bombing of a school that killed 160 young girls, has galvanized Iran’s resolve and transformed the war into a religious struggle. The death of Khamenei has united the Iranian people under the banner of Islamic radicalism, while also making Arab support for the U.S.-Israel coalition increasingly uncertain. Meanwhile, the attack on the school has severely damaged international opinion, particularly in Europe, where anti-coalition sentiments are rising. Even President Trump faces mounting criticism domestically. Most NATO allies have so far refused to join the war despite repeated calls by President Trump.

The Current State of Affairs

As of now, the war shows no signs of de-escalating soon. While the intensity of attacks may subside as military resources dwindle, the broader conflict appears far from resolution. Additionally, several key trends are emerging:

·         Global Economic Crisis: The war threatens to spark a global economic crisis, driven by energy inflation and severe logistical bottlenecks reminiscent of the economic disruptions seen during the Covid-19 pandemic.

·         Middle Eastern Impact: Countries like Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq, caught in the crossfire, are witnessing widespread infrastructure damage and suffering reputational harm as secure havens.

·         Israel’s Vulnerability: Israel, long considered militarily invincible, has reportedly sustained significant losses to both its infrastructure and military forces, leading to a reassessment of its invulnerability.

·         U.S. Economic and Security Costs: The U.S. has sustained considerable losses, both in terms of military assets and economic costs. The long-term implications could be far-reaching, with the U.S. facing higher security risks for years to come, as Islamic radical groups seek to avenge Khamenei’s death.

·         Iran’s Dilemma: Iran has lost many key leaders, faced substantial infrastructure damage, and alienated long-time allies like India and Pakistan. Meanwhile, the Iranian prince in exile has called for a popular uprising in Iran, hoping to restore his regime.

·         Russia and China’s Restraint: Surprisingly, both Russia and China have refrained from directly entering the conflict on Iran’s side, although there are reports suggesting they may be providing covert support through ammunition and technology.

Potential Endgames: How Will the Conflict End?

Admittedly, I do not possess even basic qualifications to forecast the outcome of this war. Nonetheless, like any aware citizen, I find it relevant to stay aware of the current situation and make an assessment of the likely outcomes based on my understanding of the various contemporary issues and readings.

In general, wars can end in four main ways:

1.    Aggressor Victory: The aggressor achieves its objectives, replaces the existing regime with a puppet government, and extracts reparations from the defeated enemy. A historical example would be the U.S. victory in Iraq.

2.    Defender Victory: The defender manages to repel the aggressor’s forces, captures or kills key military leaders, and emerges with a strengthened position. Examples include World War II and the 1971 Indo-Pakistani War.

3.    Truce: Both sides agree to a ceasefire, with the aggressor retreating and both parties finding a negotiated resolution. An example of this would be Operation Sindoor.

4.    Stalemate: Neither side wins, but the fighting continues at low intensity, with no formal end to the conflict. The Russia-Ukraine conflict serves as an example.

U.S.-Israel Alliance Victory (Aggressor Wins)

A U.S.-Israel victory could lead to the following outcomes:

·         Regime Change in Iran: Iran’s Islamic regime is overthrown, and a new, U.S.-friendly government is installed.

·         Enhanced U.S. Control over Arab States: The U.S. solidifies its influence in the region, ensuring strategic dominance over vital energy resources and trade routes.

·         Expansion of Israel’s Borders: Israel may continue its aggressive policies in Palestine, potentially annexing more territory and solidifying its position as a regional superpower.

·         Strengthened Economic Sanctions on Russia: With enhanced energy security in Europe, the U.S. could ramp up its sanctions on Russia.

·         Shift in U.S.-China Relations: The U.S. could gain an advantage over China, particularly in the economic and trade spheres.

·         Stabilized Energy Markets: As the conflict subsides, energy prices may stabilize, albeit at a higher baseline.

Iranian Victory (Defender Wins)

An Iranian victory could result in:

·         Revenge for Khamenei’s Death: Iran avenges the death of its leader by targeting top figures in Israel and the U.S.

·         Iran’s Rise as a Regional Power: Iran assumes a dominant role in the Middle East, uniting other Islamic nations and taking control of energy resources and trade routes.

·         Peace with Palestine: Israel may be forced to negotiate with Palestine, leading to a resolution of the longstanding conflict.

·         Empowered Radical Groups: Groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis could gain territorial control in key areas such as Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria, destabilizing the region further.

·         U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq: The U.S. could lose its influence in Iraq and be forced to pull its military out of the region.

·         China’s Rising Influence: China may step in as the new protector of the region, offering military and economic support to rebuild Iran and other conflict-ravaged nations.

·         Surging Energy Prices: Iran’s control over energy routes could send oil prices skyrocketing, triggering a global economic crisis.

·         Ukraine yields to Russia’s demands: The NATO funding of Ukraine defense comes under pressure. Ukraine is forced to strike a deal and yielding control of some territories to Russia.

Truce (Mutually Agreed Ceasefire)

A truce could result in:

Restoration of the Status Quo: The parties agree to a ceasefire, and the conflict ends without significant territorial changes.

Continued Tensions: While fighting ceases, the underlying tensions remain high, and the region faces ongoing risks of further conflicts.

Shift in U.S. Influence: U.S. influence in the region may diminish, while Israel faces increased diplomatic isolation.

Regional Reconstruction: Reconstruction efforts in Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Iran, and other affected countries would begin.

Stabilized, Yet Elevated, Energy Prices: Although energy prices may stabilize, they will likely remain elevated due to increased security risks.

Stalemate (Low-Intensity Conflict)

A stalemate would lead to:

Continued Uncertainty: The conflict would drag on at a low intensity, with no clear victor.

Weakened U.S. Alliances: U.S. allies in the Middle East may begin to distance themselves from Washington, seeking their own political and economic strategies.

U.S.-Russia Diplomacy: With the conflict unresolved, the U.S. could seek a diplomatic resolution with Russia, easing tensions in other areas.

Pressure on NATO: The U.S. and NATO’s support for Ukraine may dwindle, leading to concessions with Russia over disputed territories.

While it is impossible to predict the exact outcome of this war with certainty, the evolving situation requires close monitoring. This war could potentially be the most defining moment in post-WW2 history.

I encourage readers to share their predictions and continue to stay informed.

 

Tomorrow: Where does India stand in this conflict