Wednesday, October 14, 2026

De-rating of Indian equities – cyclical or structural?

One of the most popular arguments for investing in Indian equities is the fall in PE multiple of benchmark indices relative to (i) its historical averages and (ii) global emerging markets. Motilal Oswal Financial Services, estimates that currently, Nifty is trading at ~18% discount to its long-term average price-to-earnings ratio and 12% discount to its long-term average price to book ratio. The MSCI India Index is trading at a 35% premium to the MSCI EM Index, materially below its historical average premium of 72%.

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​While the fact of de-rating of Indian equities in recent years is indisputable, the nature of this derating is a topic of debate, in my view. It needs to be examined whether this derating of valuation is cyclical and therefore offers a good opportunity to increase exposure to the Indian equities; or is it structural; in which case it would also be worth examining whether there is scope for further derating, and therefore investors may look for curtailing their exposure to the Indian equities in their standard asset allocation matrices.

This examination would involve finding answers, inter alia, to the following questions:

(a)   What factors led to the Indian markets trading historically at a premium valuation compared to the global peers? Are these factors still prevalent and support the argument for a premium valuation for the Indian equities?

(b)   Is the derating of Indian equities purely due to temporary reasons like geopolitical uncertainties, inflation, rising global bond yields, currency depreciation, lack of domestic investment opportunities in currently popular themes like artificial intelligence, semiconductors, etc.?

(c)    Are there any reasons to believe that the current phase in the global economic, political, geopolitical and development cycle has weakened the argument for a long term “India Story” on a durable basis?

(d)   Is the derating for the “India Story” per se; only for the benchmark indices as several mid and small cap stocks trade at elevated valuations; or listed equities, or all of these?

(e)   Could this derating be merely a “mean reversion”?

…to continue tomorrow


Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Take it or leave it

The Indian equity markets continue to notably underperform its global peers, despite assurances of a resilient economy and decent corporate performance. Experts have attributed the underperformance to incessant selling by the foreign investors and geopolitical uncertainties. Both are valid reasons. But I do not think these explain the full picture.

Foreign selling is an effect, not a cause

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been net sellers in four out of the past five years. Obviously, they are not selling for fun. Something seems to have changed in how they see the risk and the return from India. The selling, therefore, tells us “what” is happening, not “why”.

Part of the “why” is global. Treasury bonds in the developed economies are yielding highest in over two decades, providing global investors a safer option to invest. The rupee is flirting with 96 to the dollar, which cuts dollar returns even when the Nifty stays flat. Neither of these is India-specific. They hit every emerging market.

Geopolitics is affecting India mostly through oil and other raw materials. Expensive crude, chemicals, metals, etc. means higher imported inflation and a weaker rupee. That is a real cost, but the economy is absorbing it. The RBI’s own estimate for FY27 growth stands at 7.1%, after the oil shock and the weaker rupee are already in the numbers. Domestic institutions are also buying, so net flows (FPI plus DII) remain positive. A market that falls under these conditions is telling us that the risk premium foreign investors are willing to pay for India has changed.

The one cause that is in our own hands

I think, among other things, policy and legal uncertainty is one of the reasons global investors are staying away. I have highlighted this before (see here). The government itself acknowledged it in an Economic Survey (see here). Over the past decade, India has seen more than one sudden shock. The retrospective tax of 2012 was repealed only in 2021, after costly arbitration losses. The higher surcharge on FPIs in the 2019 Budget was rolled back within weeks. Each was corrected in the end. But the correction came after the damage, and that pattern is what erodes the trust between government and enterprise.

Two recent instances are noteworthy in this context.

Tiger Global: the ruling and the repair

In January this year, the Supreme Court ruled that Tiger Global must pay capital gains tax in India on its 2018 sale of Flipkart shares to Walmart. The court found that Tiger Global’s Mauritius entities acted as simple conduits for tax avoidance rather than active local businesses. The court emphasized that a Tax Residency Certificate (TRC) issued by Mauritius no longer automatically guarantees tax treaty relief. Tax authorities can look past paperwork to see where real control and business decisions happen. The judgement said India’s General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) can override older treaty benefits if an arrangement lacks commercial substance, even for older investments.

To be fair, I would not defend a structure with no commercial substance. The court was enforcing an existing anti-avoidance law, not inventing a new one. The real difficulty is for investors who believed that investments made before April 2017 were protected, which is what the 2016 treaty protocol seemed to promise.

On March 31, 2026, the CBDT amended the GAAR rules so that income from the transfer of investments made before April 1, 2017 stays outside GAAR. That is a welcome step. But the issue may not be closed yet. The “substance over form” reasoning and treaty-level anti-abuse clauses are still available to the tax department, and it is not clear that the relief reaches Tiger Global itself. Shock first, patch later, some doubt left over. That is a worrying pattern for investors.

Prima facie, this mostly concerns private equity and venture capital investors, not the FPIs selling listed shares. But long-term capital talks to each other. What one set of investors learns about exit risk soon becomes part of how everyone prices India.

Hospitals: a risk building, not yet a shock

The healthcare sector in India has attracted substantial foreign capital in the past decade. Foreign investors now hold material stake in most of the corporate hospital chains in India. Recently, the Supreme Court of India criticized corporate hospitals for overcharging patients and suggested that they should be operating as service providers rather than attempting to maximize profit. The government is yet to clarify its stand on the issue, creating significant uncertainty for foreign investors who have invested heavily in Indian hospitals.

If a margin cap is actually imposed, it will come with little notice and no transition. Investors have seen that film before.

What I make of it

The message from these episodes seems to be that India is no haven for those looking for tax arbitrage or policy loopholes. The call reads as “either play by the rules or leave”. That is a fair position for any country, provided the rules are clear and known before the money goes in. Investors can live with strict rules. What they cannot price is a rule that gets interpreted or redrawn after they have invested. For now, foreign money’s verdict seems to be to trim exposure.

Investor takeaways

·         FPI selling is not a verdict on India’s growth. The growth is decent. But do not dismiss it either; markets sometimes see risks before the data does.

·         Watch the follow-through, not the headline. The final government stance on hospital pricing, and how the tax department applies the GAAR amendment in pending cases, will tell us more than any media headline.

·         Treat price-regulation risk in listed hospital chains as a real input to valuation, not as noise.

·         Stay selective on FPI-dependent segments until there is more clarity. Domestic flows are a cushion, not a substitute.

·         Do not assume that a patch for one problem means the pattern has ended. Look at how quickly and how clearly the next one is handled.


Thursday, October 8, 2026

RBI follows the herd

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India, in their meeting held during 5-7 October, 2026, unanimously decided to hike the policy rates by 25bps, in line with the market consensus. Accordingly, the policy repo rate is hiked from 5.25% to 5.50%; the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate stands adjusted at 5.25% and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 5.75%. The MPC also decided to change the stance to “calibrated tightening” from “neutral”, by a 4-2 majority vote. This is the first rate hike by RBI since February 2023.

Wednesday, October 7, 2026

To hike or not to hike

In a few hours from now, the Reserve Bank of India will announce the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held from 5 to 7 October 2026. The market consensus is a 25bps hike in the policy repo rate, from 5.25% to 5.50%. It would be the first increase since February 2023. A few analysts also expect a hike in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) from the current 3%. The RBI’s stance has been “neutral” since June 2025, and it was retained in August. The talk now is that the RBI may move to “calibrated tightening”, though economists are far from united on this.

Two reasons are being given for a hike. The first is sticky inflation. CPI inflation rose to 4.82% in August, above the 4% target for the third month in a row, and wholesale inflation is close to 10%. The second is the shrinking gap between Indian and developed-market bond yields. The US Fed has started raising rates again, the rupee is close to 96 to the dollar and about 6% weaker this year, and foreign investors have been taking money out of Indian bonds.

Let me be clear about where I stand. In my 24 September post I had said that a 25-50bps move in October was now the base case, and I still expect the MPC to hike today. But what the RBI will do and what it needs to do are two different questions. On the second, I am not convinced. In my view, the reasons being given are not strong enough for the RBI to change the course of its policy.

Inflation is a supply story

Energy is dearer because of the war in West Asia and disrupted shipping. Food is dearer because the southwest monsoon is closing with a deficit of around 15%, and El Nino is strengthening. Metals and chemicals are dearer because of freight costs and production disruptions in several countries. A higher repo rate will not bring one extra barrel of crude through Hormuz, or one extra drop of rain. Core inflation, which leaves out food and fuel, was still 3.9% in July. That is not how demand-led overheating looks.

History is not encouraging either. The RBI raised rates twice in 2018 as oil climbed and the rupee slid, and the rupee kept weakening until crude prices turned in October.

The fair counter-argument is second-round effects, when supply shocks seep into wages and inflation expectations. I take that risk seriously, and it is the one reason I would not rule out more hikes later. But the core inflation numbers do not show it yet.

Borrowing costs will bite where it hurts

Indian businesses are already carrying more working capital, because inventories are higher and payment cycles are longer. A costlier loan at this stage will also find its way into prices, besides adding to financial stress.

Bond yields have also done part of the RBI’s job already. In the past one month the 2yr G-Sec yield is up 51bps, the 10yr by 25bps, the 15yr by 30bps and the 30yr by 10bps. A 25bps hike will not move these yields in the same proportion, but it will reach households. A large part of floating-rate home, auto and MSME loans is now linked to the repo rate, so EMIs will go up within a few months. Demand in these rate-sensitive segments is already softening. Housing sales in the top nine cities fell 6% in the September quarter from a year ago, though another tracker covering seven cities shows a 3% rise, so the picture is mixed. In autos, September numbers missed expectations a month after record sales in August. Bajaj Auto’s domestic sales were down 9% and M&M’s tractor sales 21%, even as M&M’s overall sales and Hyundai’s held up. With the RBI itself projecting growth of 6.7% I am not worried about a collapse. My concern is narrower. These are the segments where costlier EMIs bite first, and the festive season is a poor time to test them. Why add to their burden when the inflation we are fighting does not come from these sectors?

The yield gap is the better argument, but still not enough

Of the two reasons for a hike, this is the stronger one, because it is about the rupee and capital flows. But look at the size of the moves involved. The Fed has gone from 3.50-3.75% to 3.75-4%, and the US 10-year yield has crossed 5%. A 25bps hike by the RBI does very little to a gap that is being pulled open by moves of that size elsewhere. Foreign flows into our bonds are following global yields, not 25bps of repo rate. Besides, the RBI has already pulled in large inflows through the FCNR(B) window, eased the norms for external commercial borrowings and stepped into the currency market. These tools are aimed straight at the rupee, and I would rather see the RBI lean on them.

I accept that there is a cost on the other side too. The market is expecting a hike, and a surprise hold would unsettle the rupee and bond yields for a few days. To me that is a smaller price than raising the policy rate for reasons it cannot address.

What the RBI can do instead

The real anomaly right now is the excess liquidity due to FCNR(B) mobilization. Short-term money market rates are still trading below the repo rate. The RBI has been absorbing this through bond sales and swaps, and more of the same would bring overnight rates up towards 5.25%. Let us not pretend that this is not tightening, because it is. But it is a more precise kind of tightening, it does not announce a new rate cycle, and it can be reversed easily. Among the tools, I would prefer open market sales and swaps over a CRR hike. CRR is a blunt instrument, and a hike would take back relief that banks got only last year.

The sharp rise in personal loans is the part of credit that needs cooling. Bank credit is growing at about 19% against deposit growth of about 15%. Targeted steps, such as higher risk weights on unsecured loans as the RBI did in late 2023, will do this better than a rate hike that every borrower in the country has to pay for.

Investor takeaway

·         Look beyond the repo rate today. A 25bps hike is largely priced in. The stance, the guidance for December and any liquidity measures will tell you more.

·         Watch the RBI’s liquidity operations as closely as the headline rate. Overnight rates moving up towards 5.50% is tightening, whatever the repo rate does.

·         Expect rate-sensitive segments – real estate, autos, NBFCs and companies with heavy external borrowings – to feel the higher funding costs first.

·         Do not assume that one hike ends the story, and do not build a base case around rate cuts. A higher cost of capital for longer remains my working assumption.

·         If the RBI holds, expect the rupee and bond yields to react first. Treat that as a short-term reaction, not a change in the larger direction.

A closing thought

The Bhagavad Gita (6.17) says that yoga removes sorrow for the one who is measured in eating, in recreation, in action, and in sleep and waking:

युक्ताहारविहारस्य युक्तचेष्टस्य कर्मसु । युक्तस्वप्नावबोधस्य योगो भवति दुःखहा ॥

The word to notice is yukta – measured, fitting. Central banking asks for the same quality: choose the dose that fits the ailment, neither more nor less. A hike may well come today. My only point is that the ailment here is mostly one that a rate hike cannot treat, and the RBI has finer instruments for the rest.


Tuesday, October 6, 2026

India’s private capex: reading beyond the headline

Every few months someone announces that India’s private capex cycle has finally arrived. The RBI’s September Bulletin gives us fresh data to test that claim. My reading is that the picture is good, but not as good as the headline suggests, and not as bad as a quick look at the pipeline numbers can make it seem.

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Reading the street signs

Last week gave us plenty of theatre. President Trump mused about renaming the Strait of Hormuz “Trump Strait” and rebranding Artificial Intelligence as “Super Intelligence.” Both suggestions say more about the man than about markets. But strip away the theatre and six genuine developments took place this past week that belong in every investor’s diary.

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Quality over quantity

There has been a lot of noise lately about the reliability of India’s national accounting data. Questions are being raised about the base year, the deflators, the informal-sector estimates, etc. This is not a new fight, either: the 2015 base-year revision and the “back-series” controversy that followed it are still cited by both sides whenever the subject comes up.

Thursday, September 24, 2026

Higher for Longer – investment strategy guardrails

I closed my last post promising to come back with what the “higher for longer” regime means for portfolios (see here). Before I get there, it is worth pausing on where the RBI itself stands in this story, because India’s hand is not quite the same as the one the Fed, the BoJ or the ECB are holding.

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Its payout time

I have long believed that free, democratic societies built on free-market economics move through three broad phases — empowerment, enablement, and engagement. This framework explains something pure economics often misses: why some perfectly sound reforms land smoothly, while others — involving far smaller sums of money — set off disproportionate outrage. The current noise over the Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on UPI payments is, to my mind, a textbook example of a society well into its engagement phase being asked to do something that phase inevitably demands, and not entirely enjoying it.