Mandate 2014: Decisively transformative
The goal post for 2014 elections has shifted much further
and higher both in terms of quality (agenda) and quantity (vote share &
seats).
In summer of 2013
Rs100cr (one billion) in box office collection was indisputable benchmark for a
Bollywood blockbuster. A few months later, Salman Khan starrer “Jai Ho!”
earning little over Rs100cr is a major disappointment. What has changed?
Amir Khan starrer
“Dhoom-3” has shifted the goal post dramatically higher to Rs500cr. Remember,
this is same Amir Khan who had earlier set the Rs100cr benchmark with 3-Idiots
and Ghajini.
A somewhat similar
script is being played out on Indian political stage. The goal post for 2014
elections has shifted much further and higher both in terms of quality (agenda)
and quantity (vote share & seats). This election in our view is going to be
definitely transformative.
What has changed?
2014 elections are most important since 1977.
The political landscape of the country has changed materially in
past one decade, more so since 2009 elections. These changes mark the second
wave of political evolution in the history of independent India; the first wave
that came in early 1970’s with JP leading a massive socialist movement against
authoritarian rule of the then prime minister Mrs. Indira Gandhi, has since
waned.
Some of the drivers of changes in political landscape are:
·
eruption of massive public angst against
corruption in public offices consequent to some highly publicized corruption
cases;
·
persistent inaction & poor-governance and
consequent deterioration of economic conditions and rise in economic
disparities;
·
removal of entry barriers to active politics
with emergence of AAP in Delhi state elections;
·
active participation of both elite and middle
class people in politics, something not seen since pre-independence Swadeshi
Movement;
·
blurring of ideological boundaries between
parties leading to wider acceptance for personality based electoral contest;
·
massive electoral success of Mamta Banerjee and
popularity of Jagan Reddy weakening the feudal elements within Congress party,
prompting youth leader Rahul Gandhi to rebel and take charge to transform the
GoP into a progressive democratic organization;
·
diminution of the relative importance of
traditional religion and caste issues in political discourse with economic
issues taking the center stage;
·
degeneration of communist movement into mostly
violent Maoist movement;
·
unprecedented change in demographic profile of
voters that has led to larger participation of public in democratic process;
and
·
disproportionate rise in the role of (social)
media as opinion influencer.
It is imperative to highlight here some key trends that have
emerged from the changes taking place in the Indian political landscape:
the socialist forces which successfully carried the
anti-feudalism crusade and fought for
the cause of social justice, and protection of religious minorities &
economically backwards since early 1970’s have all degenerated into second
grade clones of feudal Congress.
Firstly, the
socialist forces which successfully carried the anti-feudalism (read
anti-Congressism) crusade and fought for the cause of social justice and
protection of religious minorities & economically backwards since early
1970’s when Mrs. Indira Gandhi sought to transform the Indian National Congress
into Congress (Indira), have all
degenerated into lower grade clones of feudal Congress.
Many of them are now
seen close to Congress (except during the election season); pursue the
traditional vote bank politics seeking to create a divide in society on the
basis of caste, religion or region; and are driven by the personality of the
leader rather than idea or ideology.
Though, their purpose is still far from achieved, the
process of extinction of traditional socialists (read splinters of JP movement)
may likely begin with 2014 general election and shall be completed in next
couple of decades.
The space vacated by
these so-called left of center forces could be occupied gradually by
neo-socialists like AAP and a re-organized Congress (We shall deal with this
subject a little later.)
2014 elections will be remembered as “elections won or lost
by Narendra Modi.”
The BJP has lost the exclusive claim over middle class morality
and nationalism. The anti corruption movement in past 5years has swayed the
urban and semi-urban youth and small entrepreneurs out of the BJP enclosure
into a neutral territory. AAP has definitely shown them an alternative path,
though not many may want to take this less traveled path immediately.
Narendra Modi, in a
very high risk wager, is trying hard to retain BJP’s traditional core support
base, acquire a part of the socialist territory, and at the same time
marginalizing the parochial and dogmatic elements within BJP to create a new
look centralist organization.
In his endeavor he
appears to have whole hearted support of business community, especially
industrialists. The support from the large working class (laborers and farmers)
and religious minorities is still underwhelming.
A successful
campaign would provide the country a sustainable alternative to Indian National
Congress, whereas a failure could seriously jeopardize Modi’s national
ambitions and put question mark on BJP’s ability to provide a viable national
alternative.
Nonetheless, 2014 elections
will be remembered as “elections won or lost by Narendra Modi.”
Congress faces a bigger challenge from within than from
outside.
Post independence the Congress Party has mostly been dominated
by erstwhile feudal lords, landlords and industrialists. Despite conspicuous
changes in the socio-economic landscape of the country since 1989, it has
failed to re-orient itself.
Consequently, the base of the
once only true national party has shrunk considerably. It has dissipated to
become a marginal force in large states like UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal,
Tamil Nadu representing 40% of the Indian population. In 2004 & 2009 it could
manage just ~16% of eligible votes.
Consistently declining support base has led to widening of chasm
between old feudal lordship within Congress Party and the ambitious youth in
past few years. Disastrous performance in 2013 assembly elections has embolden
both the camps and brought the divide in full public view.
The youth brigade led by Rahul Gandhi has been seen attempting
to take control of the Party and reorient it to the ground realties. Rahul
Gandhi in “acknowledgement of defeat” press interaction post December 2013
assembly elections, highlighted that the feudal elements in Congress Party have
not heeded to his suggestion of changing the way party has traditionally
worked. He said that he would pursue his agenda more aggressively going forward.
The fear is that absence of any recognized national level leader
outside Gandhi family may encourage more secession on lines of Sharad Pawar,
Mamata Banerjee, Jagan Reddy, et al. This could be especially true in the case
of states where Congress enjoys reasonably higher vote share but is doing
consistently poorly in terms of electoral wins, e.g., UP, Madhya Pradesh and
Gujarat.
This election will perhaps also explode the most popular myth
that Gandhi family is indisputably the most powerful force in the Congress
Party and perhaps in the country also.
The myth that Gandhi family is the most powerful force in
the Congress Party is about to explode, detonated by none other than Rahul
Gandhi himself.
In our view, the Gandhi family, in post Indira era, derives its
power from the insidious design of the feudal elements within Congress and not
necessarily from its governing ability, political acumen or inheritance.
These elements fully aware that (a) they are no longer in
position to gain power in their respective states on their own; (b) there is
little that can keep them together and (c) without power their existence will
be endangered – use Gandhi family as an adhesive to keep them together and an
emotional bait for the electorate.
The practice has seen many rebellions even after failure of
Sitaram Kesari experiment in mid 1990’s – Sharad Pawar and Mamta Banerjee being
the most successful. Jagan Reddy, Kuldeep Bishnoi etc. will need to prove their
mettle in 2014.
2014 elections will determine how fast and how far Rahul
Gandhi’s endeavor to transform Congress Party into a genuine socialist movement
will succeed.
The indications so far are that he sincerely wants to break away
from the clutches of feudal lords dominating the decision making within
Congress Party (and UPA government) and encourage a larger participation.
The show of anger at Press Club to protest against law to
prohibit convicted persons from contesting elections and fiery speech at AICC
January session in New Delhi that invoked all Congress legislatures to assert
their powers are some pointers to Rahul Gandhi’s rebellion against feudal
forces within Congress.
Now many would not mind our children opting politics as a
career.
The success of low cost, technology driven, decriminalized
election model used by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in recent Delhi assembly election
has opened up many possibilities for civil society members, social workers and
other middle class people with political ambitions.
This section of the society always wanted to make positive
contribution to the country and society. However, they stayed away from
electoral politics as it was deemed to be an expensive affair and meant only
for the powerful (rich or criminal).
With entry barriers substantially lowered, there is tremendous
rush to join AAP and contest elections. Not many of them may win elections this
time. But the trend is certainly encouraging.
Unlike AGP in Assam and TDP in Andhra Pradesh which were
exclusively local movements, the idea of AAP indubitably has a national
character and therefore more likely to sustain.
However, the key would be to give it an open architecture to
make it scalable like the Indian National Congress in pre independence era. An
attempt to patent it by few individuals would make it worse than BSP. Remember,
BSP began as forceful common man movement but soon degenerated into a fiefdom
of select individual(s).
It is no longer about a few powerful people deciding what
people need and what they should be given.
Another key highlight of 2014 election is that the agenda for
the election is being totally directed by voters, certainly a first in Indian
political history.
It is no longer about a few powerful (mostly unconnected) people
deciding what people need and what they should be given. Most parties are
forced to go to people and ask what they want and draft their manifestos
accordingly.
Some parties are even talking about multiple local manifestos to
address specific problems of a region or state.
Moreover, with crusade against corruption in public offices,
misappropriation of national resources and discretionary powers of politicians
gaining further strength the potential return on investment in contesting an
election (ROI) is set to decline dramatically. This may eventually take out a
large number of “technical politicians” out of the arena.
Not unreasonable to assume a decisive mandate after 25years
of fractured verdicts.
In past decade a trend has emerged whereby the people have
mostly voted for continuity if the image of the leader is good. 13 chief
ministers from 8 different parties are currently serving 2nd to 5th
term. Incumbent PM is also serving second term (though he has made himself unavailable
for 3rdterm).
In most elections in past three years, voter turnout had been
high and mandate decisive, except a couple of cases like Delhi and Uttrakhand.
It would not be completely unreasonable to assume that 2014
election will throw a decisive mandate, unlike past seven general elections
post 1984.
What would likely not change?
While the diversity of India is celebrated world over as a
cultural phenomenon, it has not found its due place in the economic policies
and programs.
During our India Discover trip last summer, traversing through
the incredibly wonderful landscapes and meeting over 10000 people across 17
states we shockingly discovered that even after 65years of becoming a political
union, India is perhaps still merely the one.
We have made little progress in becoming a social and/or
economic union. Consequently, a national approach to anything was conspicuous
by its complete absence in general public discourse. This state of affair is
clearly reflected in diverse socio-economic conditions of different states, and
in many cases of various regions within a state.
We discovered that people have strong allegiance to their caste,
religion, locality, region and state, generally in that order. The concept of
“Indianness” was totally absence from daily routine. Nationalism is mostly
invoked on select occasions like Independence Day or Republic Day.
We found little effort being invested by local politicians,
teachers, social workers, police or administrators in developing an “Indian”
identity of people. A senior professional in Chennai very proudly illustrated
that how in US and UK awareness about India is rising. People there now can
tell a Tamilian from Gujarati or Punjabi.
In our view, therefore, any program, policy, idea or strategy
that is formulated purely from a national viewpoint has little chance of
successful implementation in India. To be successful, the programs, policies
and strategies have to be formulated and implemented at the smallest
administrative unit level, e.g., village panchayat or town municipality.
The debate over decentralization of power to local units is
relevant and needs to be pursued in right earnest.
We rarely mind corruption if our children get admission in
a good school/college through backdoor; if we get our passport without waiting
in queue; if we could construct an additional room in our house without
permission; or if we could encroach upon the pavement in front of our
house/shop;
In a recent interview the famous British journalist Mark Tully
said that the only thing that works for politicians in India is the feeling of
electorate “Mera Aadmi hai, mera kaam karega” (he is my man, will do my work).
The unfortunate fact is that common man in India is
quintessentially non-compliant. Non-payment of taxes and utility dues,
encroachment of public land (parks, streets, pavements), illegal construction
in legal colonies, traffic violations, illegal phone connections (parent giving
their phones to underage children), under-age driving, incompetence and
antiquated skills of public servants, littering in public places, child labor,
illegal commercial activities in residential areas are some common examples of
non-compliance.
No one minds corruption if his child gets admission in a good
school/college through backdoor; if he gets his passport without waiting in
queue; if he can construct an additional room in his house without permission;
if he could encroach upon the pavement in front of his house/shop; if he can
dig a deeper borewell in his house or put a powerful motor in his water supply
line when his neighbors’ taps go dry.
This is not likely to change in next decade or may be two. If
someone tells us that corruption as an idea is a “real” issue in this election
– we beg to differ.
Outlook for 2014 elections
This election is like the epic war of Mahabharata. In Mahabharata nobody could remain
neutral. All need to take a side – right or wrong only time will tell.
2014 general elections are no ordinary elections. It is
decidedly a referendum on the desire and commitment of people for change in the
popular political discourse of the country.
It is a two layered contest (a) between continuity of
feudalistic politics dominated by vested interests & parochial
considerations on one side and aspirations of common people on the other side;
and (b) within various political organizations, between status quoits and
progressive elements.
The outcome of these elections is widely seen as determinant for
the course of India’s journey into 21st century.
Given that apparently there is no consensus within parties on
the direction of the change – it is inevitably going to be contest about
personalities rather than parties and ideologies.
Most people we spoke to compare this election to the epic war of
Mahabharata. In Mahabharata nobody could remain neutral. All need
to take a side – right or wrong only time will tell.
We therefore expect record participation, intense battle and
decisive outcome.
We expect record participation, intense battle and decisive
outcome.
The risk here is that many of the electorate may cast their
vote just to assert their newly found political expression, without actually intending
to usher a change or bothering about the consequences.
During InvesTrekk team’s latest intensive tour of 73
constituencies in UP, Bihar, Uttrakhand, MP and Delhi, we felt a definitive
wave in favor of Narendra Modi. This however could not be convincingly said for
BJP.
Under these circumstances candidate selection and addressal of
local issues in election manifesto of BJP will be critical.
Deriving from our Discover India tour last summer, recent tour
of North and East India, intensive discussions with workers from all parties,
serious political observers (not the TV studio types), and trends in social
media – We believe that NDA, is positively poised to get 272+ seats.
With some extra effort and prudent candidate selection, BJP
crossing 250 mark on its own is very much probable.
It is important to highlight here that unlike 1977 and 1989, the
wave this time is not manifesting in terms of street shows. Nevertheless it is
much more intense and pervasive. Deriding the strong public opinion as
manufactured social media gimmicks would be a mistake; a serious one.
Moreover, it is not just social media, we witnessed it
everywhere – schools, collages, offices, market place, drawing rooms, social
gatherings and kitty parties.
In previous elections (except perhaps 1977), many people would
just want to listen to various opinions about the likely political scenario
post election without being actually concerned. This time however it’s
definitely different. Most people have strong opinions and are concerned about
the outcome of impending election. This, in our view, is an encouraging sign
for the strength and vibrancy of our democracy.
The Congress Party may weaken considerably in these
elections. But the story may not end
here. Rather a new chapter, indeed a very interesting one, shall begin. The
idea of Indian National Congress will survive and gain further traction, as the
degenerated socialists vacate the space. The success will depend on how it
co-opts the idea of AAP into present organization and advance it forward.
Most opinion polls conducted so far have indicated
decimation of Congress Party in the forthcoming polls. Our assessment is that
Congress may fare worse than the most opinion polls have projected so far. It
may win the lowest number of seats ever.
But the number of seats it wins in Lok Sabha is not the most
important things. It has many more serious challenges to face. For example
consider the following:
·
Unlike 1977 and 1989, when Congress lost power
to somewhat united opposition, it could still manage to retain strong regional
footprints. Now, it is a marginal force in large states like UP, Bihar,
Jharkhand, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu representing 40% of the Indian population.
In 2004 & 2009 it could manage just ~16% of eligible votes, this time the
tally might be even lower.
·
With its support base weakening, it may be
forced to make alliances with stronger regional parties like NCP, DMK or BSP on
unfavorable terms or ally with unpopular parties like RJD, JMM or RLD which
further damages its image.
This (a) leaves it with even fewer seats to contest and hence
diminished chances of winning; and (b) discourages the party workers who with
the shrinking pie see little chances of fulfillment of their political
ambitions.
Hence with Congress likely out of power for 5years, much reduced
strength in Rajya Sabha and only a few states under its rule (forecasts suggest
it losing Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra too, leaving it with just two big
state under its rule, i.e., Assam & Kerala) the already meager cadre may
further splinter away, making a comeback even more unlikely.
·
With Narendra Modi at the helm for 5years, the
secularism vs. communalism debate might become redundant, breaking the very
fulcrum of opportunist alliances that have kept Congress and some regional
parties like RJD in contention since mid 1990’s.
In our view, however, the story may not end with weakening of
Congress Party in these elections. Rather a new chapter, indeed a very
interesting one, may begin. We believe that the idea of Indian National
Congress is still relevant and will survive loss of Congress Party, more so, as
the degenerated socialists vacate the space. Rahul Gandhi or no Rahul Gandhi.
As a weakened Congress Party losses its feudal and dynastic
image, the genuine socialists who have completely abandoned the Party in past
four decades may embrace it again provided the young leadership walks the talk
and co-opts the idea of AAP into present organization and advance it forward.
We see more chances of Gandhians like Anna Hazare supporting a reoriented
Congress rather than degenerated AAP.
In the meanwhile, we might see some Kamraj, Morarji Desai,
Jagjiwan Ram, Biju Patnaik, Sharad Pawar, Mamata Banerjee, Jagan Reddy,
Mohammed Alimuddin and Bhajan Lal sort of rebellion against the family.
Indian National Congress is the most suitable candidate for
carrying forward the socialist agenda.
In pre-independence era the socialist movement had largely
been a sub-plot of larger Indian National Congress movement. Post independence,
disagreeing with Nehruvian elite socialism, Gandhian socialist like Kriplani
and Lohia parted ways with Congress Party and created an independent socialist
movement under miscellaneous banners like Praja Socialist Party. The influence
area of these parties was however limited to few regions.
The independent socialist movement in the country gained
nationwide prominence after Mrs. Indira Gandhi managed to defeat the Gandhian
voices within Congress by successfully suppressing the inner party democracy.
The movement started by prominent socialist leaders like
Madhu Limaye, Madhu Dandavate, Karpuri Thakur, George Fernandez, duly
complimented by the communists movement, was carried forward by Mulayam Singh Yadav,
Kanshi Ram, Lalu Prasad Yadav etc.
Over past decade or so, however this movement has completely
degenerated into opportunism afflicted with all the traits of feudalism which
once led to the degeneration of Indian National Congress. Most of these parties
now distinctly appear lowly clones of Congress Party.
In our view, post 2014 election these parties will be
surprisingly marginalized and begin their journey to extinction. The journey
may be long (couple of decades) but path is straight and clear.
The idea of AAP seeks to establish the dominance of
educated middle classes over political domain for the welfare of poor and
deprived. Though the actions of AAP Party so far looks distinctly Maoist, the
idea has indelible mark of US political system. The problem lays with people
not the Idea.
AAP as a neo socialist Idea has emanated from the multiple
Gandhian socialist movements carried out by civil society members in past two
decades. Given that the classical socialist movement in the country has lost appeal
due to variety of factors (like lack of effective leadership, low appeal to
ambitious youth, lack of national appeal for any party, reduction in social
inequalities and poverty level, etc.) there is tremendous potential for this
idea to succeed.
The idea of AAP seeks to establish the dominance of educated
middle classes over political domain for the welfare of poor and deprived.
Though the actions of AAP Party so far looks distinctly Maoist, the idea has
indelible mark of US political system.
In our view, AAP as an idea will grow much faster and further
than splinters of Janta Party (ex BJP) and BSP; as unlike conventional
socialist parties, it has acquired a definite national character.
We are not sure, how long AAP as a political party will last,
given the poor organization and egotist leadership.
As of now, both BJP and Congress Party are in a position to
co-opt the AAP idea into their strategy. But in our view a weakened Congress
post election would be more receptive towards it. History also supports
Congress as natural suitor for the Idea.
Seat projection
Based on our Discover India tour last summer, recent tour of
North and East India, intensive discussions with workers from all parties,
serious political observers (not the TV studio types), trends in social media
and analysis of trends in previous elections, we project the following seats
for various parties and groups.
1.
It is critical to note here that these
projections are not based on any scientific sample survey. These are purely on
the basis of the subjective assessment of our team members who have traversed
through the country for past one year, spoken to people, both common and elite.
2.
We have built a wave in favor of Modi in the
projection. Though, at present the wave does not exist in favor BJP as such.
3.
The results may vary materially (upto 60 seats
less for BJP) if BJP falters in candidate selection or some major negative
condition erupts for Modi and/or BJP in next couple of months.
4.
If NDA fails to cross 250 mark on its own, it
will extremely difficult for Modi to occupy 7RCR.
(a)
Most regional politicians facing the prospects
of extinction should a stable government be formed at center, would make all
possible efforts to prevent BJP from forming a government. Congress would only
be too glad to repeat what it did in Delhi recently.
(b)
Even if the so called “others” fail to unite
together, some of them will negotiate with BJP a face saving formula which
would include a PM other than Modi.
(The report “Mandate 2014: Decisively transformative” was
first published on 14 February 2014. To get a free copy of the report write directly
to the author at vijaygaba.investrekk@gmail.com)
Our coverage of 2014 election so far
India Discover series (Click on the following links to read)
Other election related posts
