Vijay Kumar Gaba: RBI

Showing posts with label RBI. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

I am not worried about US public debt

The issue of high and rising US public debt is a subject matter of public discussion in Indian streets. Using a common Dalal Street phrase I can say that every paanwalla, taxi driver, and barber is now discussing how unsustainable US public debt is. For example, listen to this boy .

From top economists, analysts, and global strategists to a common man on the street, all are worried about an imminent US default and its impact on the global financial system, especially the developing and underdeveloped countries.

Currently, the US public debt is close to US$35trn (Appx 125% of annual GDP) and is projected to double in the next eight years. The current US government's annual interest payments are more than US$1trn (Appx 20% of annual federal revenue; 14% of annual federal spending and 4% of GDP). The average interest rate on the entire debt is less than 3% p.a.

As of June 2023, 43% of this debt was owned by the Federal Reserve System and State and Local Governments. 32% of the debt was owned by various domestic institutions (MF, Insurance, Pension, and Depositories, etc.) The balance 26% was owned by other institutions including foreign governments. Almost the entire debt is denominated in USD.

This debt level is a matter of concern but does not prima facie appear to be at a disaster level. The worrisome part is that about one-third of US public debt is short-term (12 months or less maturity). However, considering that a large part of this debt could be owned by the government institution and the Federal Reserve System, refinancing of this debt should not pose a significant problem. In my view, US debt could be sustained with 3-4% inflation, 20% USD devaluation, 5% revenue growth (higher taxes), and rationalization/reimbursement of various war funding expenses, this debt could be sustained, reduced, and serviced. It is of course going to be hard for US savers and middle classes for a decade or so. USD losing its reserve currency status may be collateral damage.

For context, as per the interim budget for FY25, India’s central government debt was ~Rs172trn as of 31^st March 2024. This is approximately 58% of GDP. 3% of this debt is held by foreign entities. However, using the standard IMF definition India’s Debt to GDP ratio is ~82%. Since most of this debt is INR-denominated and RBI is holding a strong US$650bn forex chest, servicing is not an issue.

However, as per FY24BE, interest expense would account for 25% of total government expenditure, after material cuts in subsidies. For a developing economy, this interest expense to government revenue expenditure is considered worrisome, as it hampers investments, keeps fiscal deficit high, makes interest rate cuts difficult, leads to lower social expenditure affecting the quality of life, and hampers further market borrowing capability of the government.

The small point is that investors in Indian securities should be more concerned about seemingly unsustainable public debt in India rather than the high debt levels of developed countries.

As a small investor with zero risk appetite, I keep a cushion for lower subsidies, late payments of government dues, higher effective taxes, small probability of higher rates in my investment strategy.

Tuesday, April 9, 2024

A man and an elephant

For many weeks, global markets have been behaving in a very desynchronized manner. Non-congruence is conspicuous even in the behavior of the same investor/trader operating in different market segments, e.g., equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, cryptocurrencies, etc.

For example, until a month ago an investor with a balanced 50:50 debt-equity asset allocation invested in bonds as if a soft landing was imminent leading to a series of policy rate cuts over the 12-15 months. The same investor invested in equities believing that earnings growth would surpass the estimates and stocks of top technology companies would continue with their dream run. The investor was content investing in USD assets assuming green greenback would strengthen and at the same time he was buying bitcoins expecting the demise of the extant monetary system by independent crypto or digital currencies.

Last week in the US, equities reached their all-time high levels as if all is well in political, geopolitical, climate, economic, and financial spheres. It felt that the Fed was about to begin a sharp rate cycle, earnings growth had rebounded, Sino-US relations had normalized, the Gaza ceasefire had been announced, and El Nino had ended. However, across the street, the bond market was selling off as if prices were going out of control forcing the Fed to push the rate cuts to 2025. Back street, the bullion market announced that a recession was imminent. Across the Ocean, crude prices were rising as if a war was imminent with Iran threatening to escalate. In dark streets, crypto traders were laughing at conventional investors/traders rushing to bullion markets to hedge against recessionary weakness in USD.

Back home, last week equity indices reached their all-time high. Nifty Small Cap 100 gained over 7%. Commodity stocks rallied as if a bullish commodities cycle was imminent. Ignoring RBI's concerns over prices and credit, bond prices corrected only marginally. No one bothered to care about political manifestoes which are promising fiscal profligacy of gigantic proportion. USDINR appreciated marginally ruling out any pressure on the current account and balance of payment due to the sharp spike in energy & gold prices (two major imports of India) and FPI flow reversal due to the narrowing yield differential between India and developed market yields. People are also rushing to buy Silver (up 10% last week) to make some quick gains.

One of the largest asset management companies is running equities weight close to the lowest permissible in their balanced fund. It has also restricted flows to their smallcap fund. The top fund manager at this AMC is one of the most respectable names in the industry. Considering that the Smallcap index was up 7% last week against the 0.8% rise in Nifty, it seems, no one is listening to his sane advice.

We have all heard the story of an elephant and six blind men. It goes like this.

Once upon a time, there lived six blind men in a village. One day the villagers told them, "Hey, there is an elephant in the village today."

They had no idea what an elephant is. They decided, "Even though we would not be able to see it, let us go and feel it anyway." All of them went where the elephant was. Every one of them touched the elephant.

"Hey, the elephant is a pillar," said the first man who touched his leg.

"Oh, no! it is like a rope," said the second man who touched the tail.

"Oh, no! it is like a thick branch of a tree," said the third man who touched the trunk of the elephant.

"It is like a big hand fan" said the fourth man who touched the ear of the elephant.

"It is like a huge wall," said the fifth man who touched the belly of the elephant.

"It is like a solid pipe," Said the sixth man who touched the elephant's tusk.

They began to argue about the elephant and every one of them insisted that he was right. A wise man was passing by and he saw this. He stopped and asked them, "What is the matter?" They said, "We cannot agree on what the elephant is like." Each one of them told what he thought the elephant was like. The wise man calmly explained to them, "All of you are right. The reason every one of you is telling it differently is because each one of you touched a different part of the elephant. So, the elephant has all those features that you all said."

"Oh!" everyone said. There was no more fight. They felt happy that they were all right.

The story's moral is that there may be some truth to what someone says. Sometimes we can see that truth and sometimes not because they may have different perspectives which we may not agree to.

But I am witnessing a different phenomenon. No six blindfolded men are feeling different parts of an elephant this time. It is only one person who sees different parts of an elephant with open eyes and is not able to tell that it is an elephant.

Wednesday, April 3, 2024

FY25 – Market Outlook and Strategy

In my view, the stock market outlook in India, in the short term of one year, is a function of the following seven factors:

(1) Macroeconomic environment

(2) Global markets and flows

(3) Technical positioning

(4) Corporate earnings and valuations

(5) Return profile and prospects for alternative assets like gold, real estate, fixed income, and cryptocurrencies, etc.

(6) Greed and fear equilibrium

(7) Perception of the political establishment

The outlook for these seven factors for the next twelve months is as follows, in my view—

Macroeconomic environment – Neutral

My outlook for the likely macroeconomic environment in FY25 is as follows:

(a) Inflation: Consumer inflation may average well within the RBI tolerance band of 4% to 6%. However, food inflation may continue to be erratic and cause occasional violations of the upper range.

(b) Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal situation of the central government may remain comfortable as the tax collections remain steady and revenue expenditure is controlled further. I do not expect any significant deterioration in fiscal conditions due to elections scheduled in April-June 2024. No major tax/duty concessions are expected. Any major improvement in fiscal balance would depend on acceleration in asset monetization. The outcome of the general election will be a key factor in this regard. A change in regime could possibly push the FRBM Act targets further by 1-2 years.

(c) Rates: Expect benchmark yields to average in the 7.2% +/- 30bps range. The RBI may remain on pause in the first half and may deliver a 35-50bps cut in the second half depending upon the monsoon and global trend. No major change may be seen in deposit and lending rates as liquidity remains tight and credit demand remains elevated.

(d) Current Account: Expect the current account balance to stay negative for most of the year as import growth continues to outpace exports. The deficit may average around 1.3% to 1.6% for FY25.

(e) Savings: Household savings rate may continue to decline as real wage growth remains poor. Aggregate corporate savings may also decline as capacity utilization increases and corporates embark on capex plans.

(f) Investment: The government investment expenditure may slow down in 1HFY25 due to fiscal constraints and election-related restrictions. Private capex may maintain its 2HFY24 trajectory. Overall, investment growth may see decent growth in FY25.

(g) Exchange Rate: USDINR may average close to INR84 +/- 1 range on a negative current account and elevated inflation.

(h) Growth: The real GDP growth for FY25 may average around 6.25% +/- 50bps despite a slower global economy. A poor monsoon could impact the growth negatively by 50-60bps.

Overall, the macroeconomic outlook is neutral.

Global markets and flows - Neutral

Markets: Global analysts and economists are nearly unanimous on the growth recession in FY25. Most markets are currently pricing some rate cuts and monetary easing to mitigate the impact of economic slowdown. Any disappointment on this count may impact global markets adversely.

Flows: The outlook for the USD is now neutral as the US Fed is not expected to deliver aggressive rate cuts. Flows towards emerging markets may therefore remain down in FY25 as yields in developed markets remain attractive.

Technical Positioning - Neutral

In my view, the benchmark indices may go through a technical correction in 1QFY25. The indices offer a balanced risk-reward at the current level. A correction of 6-8% would make the market attractive again.

Technically speaking, Nifty may move in a wider range of 18475-24995 in FY25, averaging above 19885. Buying below 20650 will carry a positive risk reward.

Corporate earnings and valuations - Neutral

The earnings momentum may slow marginally as banks, energy, and metal earnings growth peaks in FY25. No major acceleration in earnings is expected from FMCG companies. Power, Capital goods, and Pharma are the notable sectors that are expected to deliver a decent delta in earnings. Overall, expect a 15-17% earnings growth.

The visibility of the improved margins sustaining is decent. Higher capacity utilization may warrant capex, hence the beginning of a re-leveraging cycle from FY25. RoE therefore may not improve materially in the next couple of years.

Alternative return profile - Positive

Real estate: Real estate prices rise cycle may peak in FY25 as higher interest rates, withdrawal of tax incentives, and slowdown in demand due to slower employment growth may weigh on demand.

Gold: Gold prices have recently rallied on the back of expectations of rate cuts by central bankers and persistent buying by some large central banks. A stronger USD and resilient growth may halt the recent run-up in gold prices. Save for a major geopolitical escalation, gold offers a neutral to marginally negative risk-reward from the present level.

Cryptocurrencies: In the past few years, Cryptocurrencies have emerged as a notable alternative asset class. Being a new asset class the level of understanding and awareness about this asset class is still low, though the participation has risen exponentially. This combination of low understanding - high participation makes it highly volatile. Nonetheless, its popularity remains high and this trend may continue in FY25 as well.

Fixed income: The corporate bond yields and deposit rates may see some downward bias in FY25, as policy rates peak and begin to descend. The yield gap that favors bonds presently may be sustained for most of FY25.

Overall, in my view, the return profile of alternatives is positive for equities.

Greed and fear index - Negative

Historically, the most successful, though intuitive, indicator of greed overtaking the fear in the stock market is the outperformance of small-cap stocks over large-cap stocks. The volatility index, another gauge of fear, has however inched higher in the recent weeks.

The sharp outperformance of smallcap stocks in FY24 indicates that greed dominates the sentiments presently. This sentiment may change in 2HFY25. The Greed and Fear balance therefore is unfavorable presently.

Perception about the political establishment - Positive

Strong commitment to promote manufacturing in India; the positive outcome of thrust on self-reliance, controlled fiscal balance, and recent election victories are keeping markets’ perception about the political establishment positive. The incumbent is forecasted to perform well in the general elections. This may further strengthen the positive perception.

Outlook for Indian markets

Given the positioning of the above seven key factors, my outlook for the market in FY25 is as follows:

(a) Nifty 50 may move in a large range of 18475-24995 during FY25. It would be reasonable to expect a low double-digit return for the year on diversified equity portfolios.

(b) The outlook is positive for non-bank financials, fossil fuels, construction materials, metals, capital goods, infrastructure, specialized technology, pharma & healthcare, and modern retail. The outlook for automobiles is neutral. FMCG and Chemicals may underperform in 1HFY25.

(c) Benchmark bond yields may average 7.20% +/- 30bps for the year. Shorter end yields may continue to do better in 1HFY24, while longer duration may do better in 2HFY24.

(d) USDINR may average close to 84+/- 1 and move in the 82-86/USD range.

(e) Residential real estate price rise cycle may peak in FY25. Commercial real estate may continue to perform better.

Some key risks to be monitored for the market in FY25

1. El Nino strengthening and adversely impacting monsoon; leading to an unusual rise in rural stress.

2. Material worsening of geopolitical situation in Europe and Asia.

3. A large credit event causing a market freeze.

4. A deeper recession in developed economies that may spill into 2025 as well.

5. Sharp rise in commodity prices due to production/logistic disruptions; restocking; displacement of USD etc.

6. General election results contrary to expectations.

Tuesday, April 2, 2024

FY24 – Resilient growth and positive sentiments

FY23 was mostly a year of normalization. After two years of disruptions, uncertainty, and volatility, both the markets and the economy regained a semblance of normalcy in terms of the level of activity, trajectory of growth, direction, and future outlook.

Building on the momentum regained in FY23, the Indian economy and the markets made a steady move forward in the financial year FY24. The resilience of growth has been surprising, given the tighter money conditions and challenging external environment.

The global economy was also stable despite geopolitical and climate challenges. Global markets accordingly performed well. The sentiments remained mostly positive and supportive of risk.

The following are some of the highlights of the performance during FY24.

Equity Markets

Indian equity market was amongst the best-performing global markets. The benchmark Nifty yielded a return of ~29% (27% in USD terms), which was in line with the US markets (S&P500 +28%), but much higher than Europe (Stoxx600 +12%; DAX +18%).

Asian markets were mixed. Japanese equities were the top global performers (Nikkei255 +44%); South Korea (KOSPI +17%) did reasonably well; while China (Shanghai Composite -7%), Singapore (-14%) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng -19%) ended the year with major losses.

Broader markets at the center stage

The primary action was away from the benchmark Nifty. Broader markets sharply outperformed the benchmark in one of their best years in the past decade. Nifty Smallcap 100 (+70%) and Nifty Midcap 100 (+60%) led the market gains.

The overall market cap was higher by 50% yoy against Nifty50 gaining 29% (81% of total market cap) and Nifty500 gaining 39% (91% of total market cap). Some part of the gap could be explained by new listings, but most of this is attributable to the massive outperformance of smallcap stocks.

Sector-wise, Realty, PSU Banks, Auto, Energy, Infra, Pharma and Metal stocks were top outperformers. Financials (ex PSU Banks), FMCG, IT Services were notable underperformers. Micro-sector-wise, renewable energy stocks were outstanding while chemicals were the worst performers.

Nifty consistent performer; broader markets more volatile

The benchmark Nifty50 yielded positive month-on-month returns for nine out of twelve months in FY24. However, the market breadth was negative in five out of twelve months implying much higher volatility in the broader markets.

Institutional flows positive, Nifty-Flow correlation breaks in 4QFY24

Institutional flows were materially positive for FY24. Net domestic and foreign flows in the secondary equity market amounted to Rs3609bn. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net buyers of Rs1510bn while domestic institutions pumped in Rs2099bn. FPIs were net sellers in four out of twelve months. The nifty-institutional flow correlation however completely broke down in 4QFY24 when Nifty gained less than 3% despite Rs1042bn of net institutional flows.

Debt and Currency Markets

Indian debt and currency markets were mostly stable during FY24, showing little volatility. RBI did not make any changes to the policy rates.

The benchmark 10-year treasury bond yields eased to 7.05% from 7.3% a year earlier. USDINR weakened 1.8% to 83.37 from 81.87 a year earlier. Lending and term deposit rates were higher by up to 50bps. The yield curve shifted lower and flattened completely.

The RBI continued with its “withdrawal of accommodation” policy stance. The liquidity position therefore remained tight for most of the year. The credit growth outstripped the deposit growth. Overnight and call money rates were accordingly higher by 70-90bps.

Economic conditions

Overall GDP growth was consistent and strong for the first three-quarters of FY24. Beating all forecasts and consensus estimates, FY24 GDP is poised to show a growth of over 7% yoy. FY25 GDP growth estimates have accordingly been upgraded.

· CPI Inflation mostly remained within the RBI’s tolerance band of 4-6% (except for a short spike in 1QFY24). Core inflation eased below 4% in 4QFY24.

· Real rates have mostly remained in positive territory during FY24.

· Private consumption, household savings, and government consumption expenditure were some of the distinct areas of slowdown.

· Project awarding activity witnessed a marked slowdown in 2HFY24.

· Rural markets gave mixed signals of demand recovery. For example, farm tractor sales declined again in 2HFY24, while 2w-3w sales staged some recovery. FMCG companies’ commentary remained mostly cautious about the consumption demand recovery in rural areas.

· External conditions were broadly good. The current account balance was manageable at 1.2% of GDP during 9MFY24, supported mostly by services and remittances. Merchandise trade balance remained negative.

· Electronics (6.5% of total exports) and Pharmaceutical (6.3% of total exports) registered good growth, while traditional petroleum products, gems and jewelry, and textiles recorded materially negative growth during 9MFY24.

· Net FDI flows continued to decline for the third consecutive year.

Commodities

FY24 was a mixed year for commodities. Precious metals (Gold +15%) and crude oil (Brent 10%) recorded decent gains, while industrial metals (Nickel -30%, Zinc -17%, Steel -19%), natural gas (-21%), coal (-28%), and agri commodities (Wheat -19%, Soy -21%) ended the year with strong losses.

Crypto shine

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin staged a massive recovery during FY24, ending the year at all-time high levels. The newest asset category gained a wider acceptance during the year from market participants and regulators.

Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Add a pinch of salt to free advice

In the past few days, three noteworthy events took place in the global financial markets. These events highlight the policymakers’ dilemma and the uncertainty faced by the financial markets.

First, the Bank of Japan changed its policy stance of “negative interest rates” ending its massive decade-long monetary stimulus exercise to a virtual close. Addressing the press after the policy decision, Governor Kazua Ueda emphasized that BoJ has “reverted to a normal monetary policy targeting short-term interest rates as with other central banks” He also added that “if trend inflation heightens a bit more, that may lead to an increase in short-term rates”.

An overwhelming market consensus now believes that BoJ will hike the policy rates from the present 0-0.1% to 1% in the next year. However, given the massive debt accumulated over the past two decades, Japan may not afford any rate hike beyond 1%.

USDJPY (151.38) is now at its lowest level since 1990.

Second, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its policy rates by 25bps, its first rate cut in nine years. The other European central banks, viz., Norwegian Central Bank (Norges Bank) and Bank of England however decided to maintain the status quo. The decision of SNB was unexpected as the market consensus favored a status quo. SNB did not commit to any further cuts.

This ‘surprise’ move by SNB led the Swiss Franc (USDCHF) and Swiss treasuries to tumble down to their lowest level in eight months.

Third, the US Federal Reserve maintained the status quo on its policy rates, holding the policy rates in a range of 5.25%-5.5%, as expected by the market consensus. The market expectations are now veering around 0-3 cuts this year, against the expectations of 6-8 cuts four months ago. The ‘no-cut’ this year is gaining more support every day.

In the post-meeting press interaction, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was as non-committal as one could be, leaving the markets confused and speculating. Powell said, “despite high interest rates, economic growth has remained relatively strong and inflation has materially lowered over the past year. Consequently, the FOMC raised its growth and inflation expectations for 2024”. Powell added that “there is still plenty of progress to be made on meeting its 2% inflation target” and hence “the path forward is uncertain.”

After reading the three policy statements carefully, my understanding of the situation is as follows:

· The central banks are increasingly confident of avoiding any deeper recession in the short term at least (1-2 years). Even the “soft-landing” (shallow recession) appears to be slowly becoming a bear case. The base case is low growth for a longer period.

· The central bankers are inclined to accept 2-4% inflation as normal. This suits everyone. The governments that have accumulated massive debt over the past decade would be happy if the real rates just stayed negative for long. Savers are happy to earn higher nominal rates on their savings. Corporations are happy to borrow more at negative real rates, buy back their equity, and enhance the market value of their businesses with low earnings growth. We may also see a relative currency depreciation of countries with high external debt (e.g., the US) as a tool for debt management.

· The popular narrative revolves around “resilient growth”, “sticky inflation” and “calibrated easing”. None seems to be positioned for a Fed rate hike presently. Though the probability may be negligible presently, further strengthening of growth momentum, a strong El Nino, and/or worsening of geopolitical conditions in the Middle East Asia and Central Europe fueling inflation could enhance this probability.

In the Indian context, the RBI has been on pause for over a year now. This is despite inflation consistently remaining close to above the upper bound of its tolerance range of 4-6%; growth surpassing its mostly optimistic estimates; distinct signs of heating in certain pockets of the credit market (especially credit card outstandings and unsecured NBFC lending); and the regulators frequently expressing concerns over excesses in financial markets. RBI has chosen to use tools like withdrawing liquidity through open market operations and nudging NBFCs and banks through advisories to regulate the credit markets.

The popular market narrative in India also revolves around the timing of the cut rather than “cut or hike”. For the financial sector, it means “Margin pressure”, “slower growth”, and “pressure on asset quality”.

RBI’s pause hinders the lenders’ ability to hike the lending rates when the cost of funds is rising due to tighter liquidity and stricter norms. The government has hiked the rates on small savings and EPF. This pressures banks’ cost of deposits. Stricter lending norms might adversely impact the product mix of lenders as the weightage of high-margin personal and unsecured loans reduces. Pressure on low-cost CASA rises as the savers move to high-yield options like corporate bonds, credit funds, and even equities.

In my view, investors should be wary of the free advice of deep value in the banking sector. The large banks are underperforming for a valid reason and smaller banks may have completed their re-rating journey.

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Do not fight markets

The financial market regulators (RBI and SEBI) have repeatedly cautioned investors and intermediaries in the past few months. However, regulators’ cautions mostly went unheeded as both intermediaries and investors continued to ignore fundamentals, moved with the momentum, and exceeded their limits – regulatory and financial. Consequently, the regulators have begun affirmative action. Following some preventive and corrective actions the regulators took, there is palpable panic amongst the market participants.

There are a lot of queries, especially from small investors, who are usually gullible and easily get misled by the manipulative tactics used by the devious operators and end up buying junk stocks at high prices. The queries usually include – “should I buy more to average my cost?”; “it’s already down 40% from high, how much more could it fall?”; “The stock is falling daily, should I sell it now and buy lower?”

I do not have any specific answers to these queries. However, from my experience of over three decades, and having seen multiple instances of such manipulative euphoria and subsequent meltdown, I would say as follows:

Cost Averaging

Cost averaging in an individual stock is not a prudent idea, especially for small investors with limited resources. Investors need to aim to earn a return on their total investment. To maximize their return, they need to decide at the time of investing, which investment has the best return potential. If it is one of the stocks they are already holding, they should add to that holding. If it is some other investment option, they should invest in such a better option. Buying more of an underperforming stock if there are better options available would be a bad strategy. It might result in the dissipation of scarce resources (money), compounding of losses, and missing good opportunities.

Catching a falling knife

Not long ago, Future Retail Limited (FRL) was a famous company. The promoter of the company was considered a genius. He pioneered the organized retail business in India. Learning from global retail majors like Walmart (USA) and Asda (UK), he built a strong business in India. However, failure to manage growth and excessive debt created problems for FRL and several other group companies, eventually leading to insolvency. The problems for the group had started after the global financial crisis, but it survived for a few years through selling of assets and business restructuring. Covid-19 hit the company hard and it could never recover from that shock.

Post restructuring of the group in 2016, FRL hit a high of ~Rs634 in November 2017 and has been on a steady decline since then. At the time of Covid-19 breakout (February 2020) the stock of FRL was trading close to Rs350.

Tracking the stock movement from the high of 2017, we get this.

· The Stock price fell 22% (635-493) in one year from November 2017 to November 2018.

· If one got tempted to buy it in November 2018, it was down another 33% in the next year (November 2018-November 2019) from 493 to 330.

· If one averaged it in 2019, it was down another 79% in the next year, from Rs 330 to Rs68.

· In November 2020, if you thought that the stock is down 90 from its 2017 highs, and how much more it could fall, it was down another 29% in the next year to Rs48.

· If one believed that it is now available at a dirt-cheap price and bought it, he would have lost 92% of his investment in the next year as the stock touched Rs4 on November 22.

· If in November 2022, you thought there is not much to lose in this, the investments made in November 2022 are down by 50% as the current stock price is ~Rs2.

· The investment made at this “lottery” price can still potentially lose 50% to 100%.

FRL is only one example. There are hundreds of stocks that were very popular at one point in time, fell 90-99.9% from their euphoric highs, and never recovered.

Therefore, before cost averaging, investors must understand that a stock down 90% from its high, is a stock that has fallen 25% from its immediate previous price eight consecutive times (100-75-56-42-32-24-18-13-10). If at any point of this journey, you thought that it has already fallen so much, how much more this can fall – the answer is it can still fall another 90-100%.

Selling to buy lower

An investor needs to understand his/her limitations. Most investors do not possess the skills required to be a successful trader in the market. So, it is better to avoid trying these kinds of adventures. If you are comfortable with the fundamentals of the company, ignore day-to-day price movements and stay put. If you are not comfortable with the fundamentals of the company, ignore day to day price movements and exit at once.

Friday, February 2, 2024

Sitharaman, Powell toss the ball in Das’s court

Wednesday night, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the status quo on policy rates for the fourth successive review. The Committee reiterated that it “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward two percent.” The Committee however made it quite clear that any rate hike from the present level is no longer on the table.

In the post-meeting press meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that FOMC may not consider rate cuts in its next meeting in March 2024. The market is thus expecting a rate cut in May 2024.

In another development, the Union Finance Minister, Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman, presented an interim budget for the fiscal year 2024-25. Two notable features of the interim budget were (i) Nominal GDP growth projection for FY25 at 10.5%, implying a well-controlled inflation environment; and (ii) Fiscal deficit of 5.1% of GDP for FY25BE, implying a strong commitment to fiscal discipline.

In line with the lower fiscal deficit projection, the borrowing program of the government has also been moderated. The finance minister has proposed Rs11.75trn of net borrowing from the market by way of fresh government securities in FY25BE against Rs11.80 borrowed in FY24RE. This shall leave decent scope for private investment.

In her speech, the finance minister also emphasized the supportive environment her government is building for acceleration in private capex to achieve the high growth targets. The minister has provided higher allocation for production-linked incentives (PLI).

With the global rate and monetary policy environment set to become benign in 2H2024; domestic macro (fiscal deficit, inflation, external conditions, etc.) improving and the government holding its side of promise to maintain fiscal discipline despite forthcoming general elections, the ball is now in the court of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to provide impetus to the economic growth.

The risks to inflation now mostly stem from food (inclement weather) and energy (geopolitical disruptions) which may not have a significant correlation with the policy rates. It would therefore be in order for RBI to guide a lower rate path and increase system liquidity.

The MPC meeting next week therefore will be watched with keen interest. I would not expect any immediate rate cut (though it will be welcome if happens), a clear guidance for lower rates going forward and enhanced system liquidity is what I do expect from MPC. If RBI delivers on these expectations, markets could rally to new highs led by financials and rate-sensitive sectors like auto and real estate.

Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Long bond – cognitive dissonance

I had an opportunity to meet with a group of investors last week. The discussion revolved around the present market conditions and the likely direction of equity and bond markets over the next few months. The views about the equity markets were divergent. However, the views about the bond markets were surprisingly similar. A substantial number of people believed that the interest rates have peaked and may move lower in the next 6 months. Long bonds thus appeared as a consensus trade. Almost all of them have been advised by their respective advisors (or friends) to increase the “duration” of their debt portfolio to avail maximum benefit of the declining interest rates.

A deeper inquisition highlighted several interesting issues related to the “long duration” positioning of the investors. I want to share some of these issues with the readers to seek their views in this regard.

· Most of the investors were not fully conversant with the concepts like “duration” and “modified duration” of bonds. They believed “residual maturity” and “duration” are the same things.

“Modified Duration” is a measure of the sensitivity of bond prices to the change in interest rates. Simply put, if a one percent move in bond yields results in a 5% change in the underlying bond prices, the bond is said to have a modified duration of 5yr.

The point to remember is each category of bonds reacts differently to the change in repo rate by RBI. Government securities, corporate bonds, and low-rated (junk or high-yield) bonds will react in different measures to any policy rate change.

· Even professionals like Chartered Accountants and MBAs assume a direct correlation between bond yields and RBI policy rates.

Interest rates (and bond prices) are a function of the demand and supply of credit. RBI policy rates do provide a broader direction to the credit demand and supply, but it is not necessary that in the near-term RBI rates and bond prices will have a direct correlation.

For example, if the fiscal deficit for FY25 is budgeted at more than the presently forecasted 5.3%, the supply of fresh bonds to be issued may be higher resulting in lower bond prices; even if RBI stays put or implements a 25-35bps cut in repo rates over the next 6months. Long-duration bonds may not yield any capital gains or may result in some MTM losses.

In recent years, the government has relied heavily on high-cost small savings to fund its fiscal deficit. Besides, RBI has systematically constricted the banking system liquidity. This has put pressure on deposit flows to commercial banks, resulting in higher costs of funds for banks. Bank lending rates have shown a tendency to rise even though RBI is stayed put for the past six months. Retail inflation has been sticky (closer to the upper bound of the RBI tolerance band) and the WPI inflation has shown a tendency to rise in recent months. FDI flows have slowed down materially in 2023. FPI flows have also reversed in recent weeks.

In my view, there is no strong argument to support the assumption of RBI cuts. Besides, equity market positioning (sharp rise in private capex, rise in consumer credit, and discretionary spending) supports higher credit demand. Logically, the long bond trade appears more driven by emotions and speculation than an economic argument. It is also a case of cognition dissonance in case you are also long on growth, credit, and capex on your equity portfolio.

Wednesday, December 27, 2023

2024: Trends to watch

The first day of January of the Gregorian calendar is widely celebrated as “New Year” globally. Scientifically speaking, this is just another point in ad infinitum; and no different from the millions of other similar points in the history of mankind. Nonetheless, we celebrate it as a new beginning, after every twelve Gregorian calendar months. The idea perhaps is to take a break from the routine and reflect on events of the past twelve months to review, reassess, revise, retreat a bit if required, and resume. It is common for people to take a pledge on this occasion, to take corrective measures for improving their lifestyles and behavior, and to set new goals for themselves.

In the financial markets also, it is a tradition to use this occasion to reflect on the market behavior during the past twelve months, outline the events to be watched over the next twelve months, and make an assessment about what may work best for investors and what may not.

Following the tradition, I have also reviewed the current conditions and shortlisted the following factors and trends to watch over the next twelve months. I believe that these factors and trends, inter alia, may materially impact the markets in the next twelve months and beyond.

Interest rates

At this point, it is a common belief that the current interest rate cycle that started in the Spring of 2022 has peaked in 2023, and we shall see a decline in rates during 2024. However, the views diverge about the trajectory of rate decline. A strong view is that to avert a recession, central banks may resort to accelerated rate cuts in 2024 and 2025. Other views include a calibrated rate-cut policy; a slow start in 2024 and rates bottoming much above the lows seen during the previous couple of cycles. A minority view is that consensus may be wrong about the rate trajectory and we may see higher rates for much longer than what the majority believes presently.

Investors would need to watch the trend in interest rates closely during 2024. An accelerated rate cut may mean (i) massive money flowing back to bonds; (ii) massive short covering in bond markets; (iii) USD strengthening; (iv) growth reviving in developed markets and (v) carry trade coming back in vogue as smart money travels to emerging markets in search of higher yields.

Disinflation vs deflation

2023 has seen significant disinflation in most developed and emerging economies. Most central bankers have either achieved or are closer to achieving their inflation targets. Global growth, especially in advanced economies, commodity-dominated emerging economies, and China has taken a hit.

Presently, many European economies are struggling with stagflation. Japan is witnessing positive real rates after a decade. US COVID stimulus has faded, leaving consumers vulnerable. Higher positive rates are impacting discretionary consumption and investment in many other economies.

It is to be watched whether the current trend stops with disinflation or pushes the major economies to a state of deflation. Particularly, since the strong deflationary forces like the use of artificial intelligence to replace semi-skilled and skilled workforce; aging demographics, dematerialization of trade and commerce, etc. continue to gain strength.

In case deflationary forces gain material ground, we may see the policymakers loosening money policy to recalibrate controlled inflation. This will see the Japanification of major economies like China, the US, and the EU. Emerging markets and independent currencies (e.g., Bitcoins) could be major beneficiaries in such a case.

Impact of AI

We are ending 2023 with companies like Google and PayTM announcing a material reduction in jobs as they replace workers with AI tools. This trend is likely to accelerate in 2024. It is critical to watch how businesses, households, and governments adapt to this trend.

The transition will indubitably be challenging as the redundancy of workforce and businesses increases. We may also witness a serious rise in the cases of cyber crimes and proxy wars. Plenty of regulatory frameworks would need to be recalibrated to meet the challenge. This process may also disrupt the businesses.

On the other hand, many businesses might experience tremendous productivity gains and a rise in profitability.

Geopolitical challenges

As we draw curtains to the year 2023, the world faces multiple geopolitical challenges. It is likely that in 2024-

(i) NATO may decide to end (or materially diminish) support to Ukraine, forcing a truce at Russian terms leading to end of sanctions on Russia and strengthening President Putin.

(ii) Arabs, aided by China, Iran and Russia, striking Israel in a proxy war against the US in a critical election year.

(iii) China entering Taiwan

(iv) Conflicts at Northern and North Eastern Indian borders as both India and Pakistan elect their new governments.

Global asset allocation rebalancing

The direction of the Indian markets could be significantly influenced by the global asset rebalancing in light of the change in interest rate trajectory, movement in USD and JPY, geopolitical tensions, disinflation/deflation etc.

The money managers might change their allocation strategies for EM vs DM, Equity vs Debt, China vs Japan, Physical Assets vs Financial Assets, Gold vs Bitcoin etc.

Presently the consensus is favoring accelerated rate cuts. Equity valuations and allocations (value vs growth) are congruent to this view. The margin for error therefore is low.

India’s growth sustaining the momentum

In 2023, the Indian economy surpassed the expectations of most agencies including the RBI and IMF. However, some key drivers of the above expectation growth appear tired.

· Private consumption growth continues to lag, while the fiscal constraints are now visible on government consumption expenditure.

· Poor global growth is likely to reflect on the exports and remittances in 2024, exacerbating the pressure on current account and INR.

· The erratic weather conditions may continue to challenge rural productivity and demand.

· Private investment has shown decent signs of recovery in 2023. Higher positive real rates may adversely impact this trend.

· The general elections scheduled in March-April, may also delay some public and private investment decisions.

· Bank asset quality improvement appears to have peaked in 3QFY24. The RBI has repeatedly cautioned about rising stress in unsecured consumer loans. A significant rise in service sector layoff might adversely impact home and vehicle loans also. Though, the probability of any significant deterioration in bank asset quality in 2024 is negligible, the growth and margins may certainly be impacted. This might limit the credit growth and hence the growth momentum.