Do it yourself

India’s growth 2QFY26 surprised positively with 8.2% real GDP growth print, up from 5.6% a year ago. On the face of it, this is an impressive print—broad-based, investment-driven, and supported by a healthy services backbone, and steady private consumption; though, a few familiar questions on data quality, especially after the IMF’s recent downgrade of India’s statistical credibility to Category C , cast some cloud on sustainability.   A broad-based GDP beat As per the official release real GDP for Q2FY26 is estimated at ₹ 48.63 lakh crore, growing 8.2% YoY, while nominal GDP rose 8.7%. Growth drivers ·          Manufacturing (9.1%) and Construction (7.2%) carried the secondary sector, delivering an aggregate 8.1% GVA growth . ·          Tertiary sector GVA expanded 9.2%, led by: Financial, real estate & professional services: 10.2% Public administration & defence: 9.7% ...

  The events of the past two months clearly point towards   deteriorating global growth prospects ;   rising economic uncertainties ; and   widening geopolitical and trade conflicts . Market participants ought to take note of these dark clouds gathering on the horizon. Deteriorating global growth prospects The US economy flirting with stagflation The US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 25bps to 4%-4.25% last week, after a pause of nine months. The fed officials now estimate two more cuts in the next three months. The Fed decided to continue reducing its securities holdings (Treasury, agency debt, agency mortgage-backed securities) as part of its balance sheet runoff. ·           Economic growth has moderated in the first half of the year. Consumer spending is weaker; and housing remains weak. ·           Core inflation is still above the Fed target. The Fed Chairm...

Continuing from yesterday… ( see here ) Investors world over are currently faced by a common challenge, viz., divergence of asset prices from the underlying fundamentals. This is particularly true for the investors in equities, precious metals, and treasuries. Nonetheless, they are staying invested, or even increasing their exposure and/or leverage driven by greed or lack of alternatives. If you take a note of the macroeconomic fundamentals of the top 10 global economies, you would notice that the growth trajectory of most economies is still lower than 2019 (pre-Covid) levels. Though, the growth rate of some emerging markets, like India and Brazil has recovered to the pre-Covid level, on several other parameters like unemployment, fiscal balance etc. these economies are also still struggling to regain even the pre-Covid momentum. GDP Growth:  Most of the top 10 global economies have recovered from the 2020 contraction, but rates remain below 2019 levels in advanced economies due to...

Politicians have always been famous for manipulating the truth or lying by telling the truth. For example, consider this. A journalist asked a minister, “Have you provided employment to the youth as per your election promise?” The minister answered, “we have given employment letters to 70000 youth last week”. Here the minister is telling the truth (70000 employment letters given), without answering the question. He did not even clarify whether these 70000 youth have actually been given jobs or just been promised a job in the future. In this way, the minister lied by telling a plain truth- manipulated it to suit his convenience. A similar pattern often plays out in economic statistics, where data may be technically correct but presented in a way that conveys a misleadingly optimistic picture. The blockbuster GDP data for 1QFY26, released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) last Friday, prima facie appears an example of manipulated truth . According to NSO, the Indian economy ...

  1H2025 was marked by stressful events, high volatility, and uncertainty. In geopolitics, several conventions were breached and new doctrines established. The war between Russia and Ukraine continued. India and Pakistan had a brief but intense conflict. The US entered the Middle East (Israel-Palestine) conflict by attacking Iran. Climate wise, India had a mild winter followed by a mild summer, impacting crops. Europe continued to witness warmer weather, while the US, Canada, UK, Korea and several other countries in Africa witnessed intense and widespread wildfires, causing immense damage to the climate, lives of people and economy. Politically, the US witnessed one of the most boisterous power transitions with Donald Trump taking over as the President (POTUS). He started his second term in the White House with radical changes in immigration, trade, and climate change policies. This put the US administration on the path to confrontations with citizens, judiciary, major trade al...

  The Niti Aayog published a working paper titled “India’s Path to Global Leadership: Strategic Imperatives for Viksit Bharat @2047”, in April 2025. The paper presents a roadmap for India’s economic growth, encompassing sustainability, social inclusion, national security, and global leadership. The paper outlines a strategic framework for achieving the goal of a developed India by 2047, by focusing on four key tasks: (i) Economic Competitiveness and Growth; (ii) National Security and Stability; (iii) Global Partnerships and Strategic Influence; and (iv)Legal Reforms and Good Governance. The paper emphasizes that successful completion of these tasks will require collective effort, collaboration, and sustained commitment across all sectors of society, government, and industry. Summary of the working paper Four Strategic Pillars ·          Economic Competitiveness & Growth: streamline regulations, boost innovation (R&D, AI, sma...