Vijay Kumar Gaba

"People are unjust to anger - it can be enlivening and a lot of fun."

— Phillip Roth (American, 1933 - )

Word for the day

Mump (v)

To mumble; mutter.

Malice towards none

Who should worry more about Pranab-RSS meeting - BJP or Congress?

First random thought this morning

Listening to Mr. S. S. Mundra, former Dy Governor of RBI, one gets a feeling that most public sector banks are persons, who lived an indulgent life and developed serious cardiac conditions due to that. Almost all need immediate surgery.

Couple of them may not survive even after surgery. 4-5 will be able to lead near normal life after surgery. Rest may remain incapacitated for long or might be forever.

These incapacitated entities will have a chance to resurrect as pure consumer finance entities, giving tough competition to retail NBFCs.

Four years of Modi rule - 8

As highlighted in previous posts, the two most impressive achievements of the incumbent government are (1) continuing with almost all programs and policies initiated by previous governments and (2) focus on faster execution of select projects.

The shortcomings of the government may be categorized into three broad categories (1) Blunders of populism; (2) Failures of omission; and (3) Mistakes of commission.

Blunders of populism

The most cited welfare measure of the incumbent government is implementation of Ujjawala Scheme, under which the government has proposed to provide subsidy to 8cr BPL families for acquiring a LPG connection. At present the beneficiary families are required to get refill of LPG cylinders as per the norms applicable to all other LPG users, i.e., 12 refills per year at subsidized rates and more refills at market driven rates. As per recent claims, 3.8cr families have already availed benefit under this scheme.

I must admit that this scheme may definitely benefit the target households and prove to be a great help.

But when we juxtapose the scheme to the history of fuel subsidies in the country, it appears a blunder.

Once introduced, it almost took 50yrs to remove the kerosene subsidy, and it was possible only once enough electricity generation started and cooking gas availability got materially augmented. In the meantime kerosene and transportation fuel subsidies constrained the fiscal position of the country materially for many years.

Now consider this. 8cr intended beneficiary household means at least 16-20cr voters under influence. To put this in political perspective, please note that in 2014 Lok Sabha elections the incumbent BJP was polled a total of 17,16,57,549 votes (won 282 seats) and principal opposition party Congress was polled a total of 10,69,38,242 votes (won 44 seats). BSP at third place got 2,29,46,182 votes and won no seat.

With this political dynamics, ignoring this huge block of 16-20cr voters would be very difficult for any political party. It is only a matter of time, when some political party will promise free 12 refills per year to the beneficiaries of Ujjawala scheme and put a fiscal burden of close to Rs1trn on the nation.

This eventuality could have been easily prevented, if the scheme was implemented through a legislation to be passed by Lok Sabha as a money bill, clearly providing that it is one time subsidy of Rs1600 and no further subsidy could be provided under the scheme by any government.

The government has obviously not learned anything from history.

Construction of development edifice which are directly in conflict with sustainability and core beliefs must be rejected outrightly. We have not seen any policy drive to this effect from the incumbent government. Though many efforts to the contrary have come forth.

One such blunderers populist announcement relates to a major road project in the Garhwal Himalaya. The project aims to connect the four sacred temples in upper reaches through a wider road network.

The stated objective of the project is to make it more convenient and safer for the pilgrims to visit these sacred temples.

As a frequent visitor to the region, I can vouch that the ecology of the region is already facing serious threats. The Kedarnath tragedy of 2013 is just an illustration of the disasters we are going to face rather frequently. Worst the

This widening of roads will not only cause cutting of numerous trees, but also result in massive increase in vehicular traffic and number of pilgrims visiting the region. Rise in pollution & garbage, pressure on infrastructure, massive construction of room capacities and other conveniences will thoroughly destroy the sanctity of the place itself; and kill the sacred rivers that originate from there.

If I am minister today, I will completely ban private vehicles in 100km radius of these sacred temples. allow only disable and senior citizens to travel by public buses to the temples. Develop the traditional pedestrian route to the temples. Provide tented accommodation with bio-toilets along the way. Ration the number of pilgrims visiting these temples, and make it compulsory for all pilgrims to plant one tree each and pay for their maintenance for one year.

Few years ago, twelve village councils in Niyamgiri area of Odisha rejected the proposal of Vedanta group to mine bauxite from the area for its Aluminum project. Though the mining proposal certainly had other concerns such as environmental degradation and impact on livelihood of local tribes, the objection of these tribal village councils was primarily on religious grounds. These tribes worship the Niyamgiri hills as Niyam Raja a sacred deity.

The Supreme Court upheld the supremacy of village council’s decision and the government accepted it as a rule. The then environment minister said "I have rejected the Niyamgiri because all the panchayats have rejected the proposal.....When the panchayats reject, we cannot go ahead with it. We have made a rule that if the Panchayats (reject), we cannot (grant clearance)."

The government again not learning anything from history.

...to continue

Also read

Part - 2

Part - 3

Part - 4

Part - 5

Part - 6

Part - 7

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Four years of Modi rule - 7

"When you publish a book, it's the world's book. The world edits it."

— Phillip Roth (American, 1933 - )

Word for the day

Excogitate (v)

To study intently and carefully in order to grasp or comprehend fully.

Malice towards none

Why should I get my dilapidated house repaired and renovated?

After all my grandfather was born, lived and died in this house.

#IndianjailsforMalya

First random thought this morning

BJP needs some good economists in its political strategy and marketing team. The party and its leadership needs to learn the law of diminishing utility and negative returns.

If the popular reaction to the recent public statements and speeches of the prime minister and other top BJP leaders is concerned, it is clear that the impact of their rhetoric and tactics is diminishing and in some cases the incremental impact is actually negative. They may want to pause, reflect and perhaps change.

Four years of Modi rule - 7

I have done it before and would like to congratulate the incumbent government again for continuing with and even materially improving the execution of policies and programs initiated by the previous governments. However, the government may not score very high on the originality and innovation criteria.

Insofar as conceiving and implementing policies and programs that may potentially put the economy on the path to faster and sustainable development is concerned, I could find little that could be genuinely attributed to the current government. Nonetheless, there are few things that have made significant difference. For example—

(a) The hybrid annuity model for developing physical infrastructure, supposedly a brainchild of Nitin Gadkari, has helped in reviving the investment cycle in infrastructure sector. The erstwhile PPP model suffered from material lacunae and led to humongous losses to both the public and private sectors. The new model (HAM) addresses many of the problems of PPP model and has (a) helped in reviving many of the existing projects which were either stalled or were suffering huge losses leading to accumulation of large scale NPAs; and (b) brought the private entrepreneurs back to the investing in infrastructure sector. The new model seems acceptable to all and appears sustainable.

(b) Another major policy initiative of the incumbent government relates to the foreign policy. Many of the previous governments had adopted a foreign policy that (a) tagged a "big brother" image to India, especially in relations with smaller countries; and (b) suffered from ambiguity and prejudices. The incumbent government has tremendously increased its outreach to almost all the countries, irrespective of size and geopolitical positioning. Moreover, it has been largely able to resolve many conflicts that impaired our foreign policy since independence. For example, an open and equidistant relationship with Arabs and Israel; US and Russia; Japan and China is remarkable and will have far reaching impact on Indian economy and our global strategic importance. The change in tactics in relation to Pakistan, by openly admitting the aggression has also helped in altering world's opinion on the role of Pakistan in global terror mechanism.

(c) The emphasis on voluntary compliance has been another dimension added to the governance by the prime minister. Insofar as I could figure out, late Lal Bahadur Shastri had been the only prime minister which relied on appeal for voluntary compliance during 1965 Indo-Pak war. The prime minister Modi has experimented with surrender of LPG subsidy, cleanliness, and to some extent tax compliance. The success so far may not be overwhelming. Nonetheless, it does provide a potent policy tool to the subsequent governments, especially during the periods of emergency.

(d) Another significant policy initiative in past four years is the change in social security paradigm.

Prior to 2014, the provision of social security was mostly responsibility of the government. The bottom of the demographic pyramid had virtually no social security. Almost three fourth of population depended entirely on the government for health and education. Financial inclusion and insurance coverage were abysmal.

The incumbent government initiated programs that led to public awareness and participation towards social security. Though the execution of some of these programs could be below par, but the policy intent is clear and commendable. For example, contributory crop insurance, promotion of NPS, proposed universal health insurance, accessibility to banking and financial services etc. have created a strong platform for building of a sustainable participatory social security regime.

(e) A strong commitment to the fiscal discipline (so far!) despite political challenges has been another positive contribution of the incumbent government.

(f) One of the major contribution of the extant regime is to introduce a definite sense of unpredictability in the entire governance and operating system. This has unshackled the hitherto complacent bureaucracy and manipulative business class, besides shocking the patron politicians.

Audacious moves like sudden cancellation of 86% of the currency notes in circulation, open admission of cross border aggression, announcing aggressive targets for completion of public projects without consulting various implementing agencies have definitely improved the execution levels while narrowing the scope for divergences and leakages.

The sustainability of this phenomenon though is debatable.

Also read

Four years of Modi rule - 4

Four years of Modi rule - 5

Four years of Modi rule - 6

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Four years of Modi rule - 6

"Unless one is inordinately fond of subordination, one is always at war."

Word for the day

Estimable (adj)

Worthy of esteem; deserving respect or admiration.

Malice towards none

If you want credit for "early" completion of a road project that was running behind schedule for years, then how could you evade the blame for continuing inordinate delays in thousands of other projects.

First random thought this morning

A chance meeting with a placement agent for domestic helps, drivers and security staff, highlighted that it is not long before Indian labor will awaken and unionize. The workers, skilled, semi-skilled and even unskilled will begin to assert their right for a dignified life and higher minimum wages.

The point is how many Indian businesses, especially in MSME sector, are ready for this phenomenon. It would also be interesting to study how would it affect the life of white collar labor, especially female workers, as the arbitrage between domestic help plus child care plus eating out expenses and net wages (after adjusting for transport and maintenance expenses) shrinks dramatically.

Four years of Modi rule - 6

As I returned from a long and rather tiring vacation in early hours of Saturday, I was greeted by full 3 pages of newspaper advertisements, eulogizing the achievements of the incumbent governments at the center and the states of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.

The insertions were colorful and decorated with brilliant headlines claiming the outstanding achievements of BJP governments at center and the state of Uttar Pradesh.

The newspaper insertions were then supplemented by the full day media coverage of the inauguration of 135km Easter Peripheral Expressway (Kundali - Ghaziabad - Palwal or KGP Expressway) and 9Km Delhi leg of the 90km Delhi-Merrut Expressway.

Speaking about the Road projects first, it certainly felt good to see the state of the art road being completed in reasonable period of time (though much faster empirically). The design seems good and environment friendly.

But the doubt that is bothering is that isn't it the natural progression in the construction industry in the country? The designs and execution of buildings, bridges, roads, airports, ports, factories and other infrastructure projects in the country is improving with each project in past two decades.

Beginning with 95km Mumbai-Pune Expressway completed in 2002, almost all subsequent expressways have seen better designs, use of technology and facilities. As a matter of fact, building better and larger airports, buildings, metro rail projects, roads in less time, in comparison to empirical evidence, is now a norm and not exception, provided there is no court intervention.

So what is the achievement of the prime minister, chief ministers or road minister in this? If at all the people to commend are the architects, engineers, contractors and NHAI/PWD officials.

As I wrote earlier also (see here) the statistics on kilometers of road completed, number of electricity polls and transformers installed, number of new affordable houses constructed, toilets build, number of new LPG connections given, new tax assesses added, MUDRA loan disbursed, irrigation projects completed, new schools and colleges opened, may be better boasted about by a Municipal Commissioner, District Magistrate, or a at best the local corporator or Panchayat head.

When prime minister of a large country aspiring to become a global power wants his performance to be evaluated in these mundane statistical terms, it does not inspire confidence.

The performance of a prime minister and the national government led by him, should be evaluated in terms of policies he conceived and implemented to put the economy on path to a faster and sustainable development; it's people on the path of prosperity, peace, and dignity; and the country as a whole on the path of cohesiveness, cooperation, recognition and integration...to continue tomorrow

Also read

Four years of Modi rule - 4

Four years of Modi rule - 5

Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Four years of Modi rule - 5

Next Issue of Morning Trekk will be published on Friday, May 25, 2018.

Thought for the day

"Liberty and equality are captivating sounds, but they often captivate to destroy."

—John Tyler (American, 1790-1862)

Word for the day

Ocellated (adj)

(of a spot or marking) eyelike.

Malice towards none

In Karnataka elections BJP appears trying too hard to prove nothing!

First random thought this morning

Insofar accusation of corruption by political leaders on each other is concerned, we have two options: (a) Believe the senior political leaders and accept that everyone is a criminal out there; or (b) Have trust in judiciary and believe that no one is dishonest out there since no one from Rajiv Gandhi (Bofors), Suresh Kalmadi & Sheila Dixit (CWG), A. Raja (Coal) & Kalanithi Maran (2G), Sonia Gandhi & Rahul Gandhi (National Herald) and Amit Shah & Narendra Modi (various case related to 2002 Gujarat Riots) have been convicted so far.

You can't use any of the two options selectively on case to case basis.

Four years of Modi rule - 5

While waiting for my turn at the barber shop last weekend, I watched an episode of TV Serial "Nimki Mukhiya".

The protagonist in the daily soap is an ambitious girl from socially backward community, in a remote Bihar village. The landlord of the village had controlled the Village local administrative body (Panchayat) for over 15years, before the seat of Village Head (Mukhiya) was reserved for female candidates belonging to socially backward classes.

The landlord, not to be easily taken down, fielded his domestic help (a backward class woman) as his proxy candidate. However, Nimki, being a popular girl amongst the backward community people who are in majority, contested the elections and won; but not before she distributed free prepaid mobile Sim cards to the voters.

The landlord, not at all willing to accept the defeat, persuaded one of his son and apparent political heir to marry Nimki Mukhiya, so that he can still control the power. After solemnizing the marriage, the family still hates the girl from lower caste, and keeps her in outhouse of the Haveli. She is not allowed to enter the house, meet anyone (not even her husband) or even touch anything!

The landlord impresses the state party leaders using the popularity of Nimki, and obtains the ticket to contest elections for the state assembly. He even manipulates Nimki and gets her to campaign for him in the village.

In the episode I watched, as a campaign strategy, Nimki rejects the suggestion of landlord's family members to distribute free food and clothes to backward caste voters. Instead she suggests to organize a beauty treatment (make up) camp for the poor and oppressed female voters. She is able to persuade the seasoned politicians that by raising aspirations of the poor and oppressed, they can win their electoral favor.

Unfortunately, for few hours of feel good, most voters appear willing to forget and forgive the 15years of atrocities, the landlord perpetrated on them.

From my experience and anecdotal evidence, I know that this serial is not far away from reality. And unfortunately this highlights one of the worst failures of the incumbent government.

Prime Minister Modi gave wings to the aspirations of the poor people, but did little to unshackle their feet from the chains of ignorance, poverty, frivolity, racism, oppression in the name of regressive customs, religious distortions, and feudal practices.

These people may be better off in absolute monetary terms, but stand more poor, frustrated and cynical than ever.

In a vast majority of cases, aspirations are resulting in indulgence, at the expense of basic needs. People are spending on motor bikes, smart phones, SUVs, tractors, wedding & birthday celebrations, compromising on food, health, education & training, and shelter needs.

Most like to depend on the state for these necessities.

For example, consider my following observations made in the course of various travels through the hinterlands.

Farmers' distress

Farm loan waiver has been a contentious issues in India's socio-economic milieu for past many decades. It would not be entirely wrong to say that most governments and political parties have used this as a tool to exploit voters' sentiments rather than solving the problem of farmers' stress or structural inadequacies in the Indian agriculture sector. Consequently, every episode of loan waiver has yielded almost nothing more than a temporary relief for the farmers.

While travelling through Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, it was noticed that the recent episode of loan waiver, which started with the newly elected BJP government in the state of Uttar Pradesh waiving farm loans to fulfill its election promise, seems materially different from the earlier episodes. This episode manifests some seriously disturbing trends emerging in Indian socio-economic sphere.

First of all, it was found that the farmers are demanding loan waiver as matter of "Right" and not as a matter of "Relief", as used to be the case in earlier episodes of loan waivers. This change in attitude can potentially alter the dynamics of state-farmer relationship in future.

Secondly, for the first time a distinct change in the ethos of the farming community was observed. Traditionally, Indian farmers considered defaulting on loans and other financial and social obligations an unpardonable sin. The popular belief was that if you fail to discharge your debt in this life, you will have to take another birth to discharge such obligations. This seems the case no longer. A significant number of young farmers are more than willing to default on their loans. With morality out of financial dealings, this can potentially change the whole paradigm of non-corporate lending in the country.

Third, in past many episodes of farm loan waiver were preceded by protests, blockades and some spontaneous violence. But in the latest episode the violence appeared more organized. There is nothing to suggest that this will end with one time waiver of loans. This appears to be a natural corollary of the first point. Not waiving loan would be considered violation of a legitimate "Right" and hence violent protests would be considered "in order".

Moreover, "farm loans" are also becoming riskier as the cost of input (seeds, agro chemical, equipment rental, wages etc.) is rising along with the output prices. However, in case of crop failure the quantum of loss is much higher as compared to, let's say, 10years ago.

The incumbent government may not be entirely responsible for this, but this is certainly a major act of omission. The government could have done so much to stem the rot, but it just ignored and let it develop into gangrene.

Rise in petty crime

The rise in aspirational consumption, especially due to distortion of social customs (especially marriage, death, birth) for the sake of vanity, ignorance, and misguidance is leading to rise in the cases of crimes (including substantial rise in the cases of domestic violence and crime against women).

In rural and semi-urban areas, motor cycle has replaced bicycle as a mandatory dowry item. These days, it is almost impossible to marry your daughter if you cannot afford a motorcycle in dowry. Smart phones also find place in most ‘demand lists’. Many old aged villagers argue that it is a collateral damage of better road and telecommunication connectivity.

This is in fact may true for a large majority of urban poor and lower middle class people also.

A youth who has obtained an engineering degree from a regional or local institution, after spending over a million rupees (in many cases borrowed) finds it tough to get a job paying a modest sum of Rs3lacs a year. His monthly personal expenses (Motorbike, Mobile, Movie and one Meal a week in a restaurant) are more than Rs10k. This phenomenon could be easily correlated to the huge rise in petty crimes in past decade or so.

The social initiatives like focus on cleanliness, cooking gas connection to BPL families are commendable. But what we need is a social renaissance. Small correction and incremental improvement might not be enough given the serious nature of the problem, in my view.

I am not a social scientist. I may therefore not be an appropriate person to comment on the acceleration in the degeneration of the society. But what I can say is that none of the governments, including the present one, have accorded any priority to this aspect.

(More on this when I come back on 24th May 2018)

Also read

Four Years of Modi rule - 4

Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Four years of Modi rule - 4

"Parties are continually changing. The men of today give place to the men of tomorrow, and the idols which one set worship, the next destroy."

—John Tyler (American, 1790-1862)

Word for the day

Sabulous (adj)

Sandy; Gritty

Malice towards none

Could Times of India group explain why they always keep posted near nude pictures of famous women on the front page of Times of India website?

First random thought this morning

Watching the Indian cricketing talent in IPL matches, one wonders should BCCI consider more than one national team for India.

There are many very young players who appear talented enough to aim for the heights once scaled by likes of Kapil Dev, Tendulkar, Dravid, Kumble etc. But to achieve that they need to get into Indian squad immediately. Otherwise the talents like Nayar, Shaw, Gil, Mavi will have to wait for one of the existing national players to retire or go out of selectors' favor. Besides, proven talents like Jadeja and Ashwin are also being wasted.

The best would be to have a separate board competing with BCCI.

Four years of Modi rule - 4

In past five days, a large number of people have offered their views and opinion on the performance of the incumbent government.

Thankfully, a large number of readers agree with the line of argument I am taking. They are interested in an objective evaluation of performance. They particularly want to assess the Alfa value of PM Modi. Meaning, if Narendra Modi was not the prime minister or fails to be reelected as prime minister in 2019, how the process of development and socio-economic evolution of Indian economy will get impacted.

Nonetheless, a sizable number seems to be interested in evaluation of performance taking the development during 1947-2014 as the base. Their parochial, and mostly ridiculous, argument is that the present government led by PM Modi has delivered much more than the all previous governments put together. They like to make it 70yrs vs. 4yrs monologue.

I find it pertinent to address this segment briefly, before continuing with my line of arguments.

A company was awarded a large piece of land to develop a huge building. The given land was rocky and uneven, having numerous deep craters, garbage dumps, bushy lands, etc. Many extremely poor occupants were living on that piece of land and needed to be rehabilitated before any construction work could be commenced. Besides, there were numerous people who claimed ownership of various small patches of the land and were historically at war with each other for control of the land. Moreover, almost all stakeholders differed on the plans to develop the land. There was acute shortage of skilled workers and material to commence the construction.

The company started the work in right earnest. Brought all stakeholders on the same page with great persuasion. Rehabilitated the poor and homeless. Worked hard on leveling the ground, establishing basic facilities necessary for undertaking the construction work. Digged the ground deep and commenced laying a strong foundation that will take the load of the colossal building that would be built.

In the meantime there were many problems in the management of the company itself. Rival groups fought with each other for control. Some joined the rival companies and attempted to destabilize the company. For some period of time they were successful too. In this period, the execution of building project was handled by the rival companies.

With great effort of many decades, the company was able to construct a strong foundation for the building, complete the basic structure of the building and even commence the interior work for lower floors.

At this stage the management of the company lost control over it and rival group took over the rein of the company and this ambitious project as well.

The new management worked hard for couple of years and completed few floors for occupation. Few thousand people started living in the building, while the construction work on upper floor continued.

The management then audaciously claimed that the previous management could not give accommodation to even a single person in so many decades, whereas we took only four years to provide accommodation to thousands of people. We are therefore much superior to the previous management.

The people who want the past 4yrs to be compared with the preceding 67yrs, need to answer the following, for example—

(a) Have millions of refugees from East Pakistan and West Punjab been adequately rehabilitated or not? Do any of millions of refugees ever felt like an alien in the country, the way they are treated in Pakistan?

(b) Have deeply fragmented princely states been cohesively integrated to form a political union or not? Is there any material threat to the sovereignty and integrated of the Union of India?

(d) Do we have a strong and vibrant democratic system, matched only by the most developed countries of the world?

(e) Whether any political party (extreme left to extreme right) has ever shown an iota of hesitation in transferring power if mandated by election results, even if the elections are suspected to be rigged?

(f) Have basic infrastructure and skill set for industry, trade, commerce, agriculture been put in place to enable people and businesses to develop advance facilities and skills to compete in global markets?

(g) Is India recognized as a super power in ITeS? Could these skills be developed in 5-10years?

(h) How long does it take to light a bulb in the remotest village of Manipur? Could it be done in four years?

There is no denying that at micro level India still remains a society fragmented by caste and religion. But trust me, nothing has been done in past four years to bridge this gap. If at all, the segments of the present ruling party have worked hard to widen the abyss.

The statistics on kilometers of road completed, number of villages electrified, new tax assesses added, MUDRA loan disbursed may be better boasted about by a Municipal Commissioner, District Magistrate, or a local corporator. When prime minister of a large country aspiring to become a global power wants his performance to be evaluated in these mundane statistical terms, it does not inspire confidence.

I may clarify, I hold brief for no political party and always vote for a person not party. Nonetheless, I am aware politically, and can't be bullied down by useless jokers wasting time on social media.

Also read

Friday, May 4, 2018

Four years of Modi rule - 3

"It is a very delicate job to forgive a man, without lowering him in his own estimation, and yours too."

—Josh Billings (American, 1818-1885)

Word for the day

Vagility (n)

The ability of an organism to move about freely and migrate.

Malice towards none

Amit Bhadana has 6.4million subscribers on his Youtube channel.

Most of his posts attract millions of views.
#NaMo and RaGa followers on twitter

First random thought this morning

A lot of people appear agitated over appointment of a private entity to maintain the Red Fort at New Delhi. Eminent politicians and social commentator like Shashi Tharoor have made utterly irresponsible and ridiculous public comments on the subject.

None of the people challenging and/or criticizing the proposal have explained why should the historical public monuments continue to be maintained by the government agencies, the way it has been done in past 70years.

Four years of Modi rule - 3

When we evaluate the performance of the incumbent government from the linearity angle, there is not much to distinguish it from previous UPA government.

NDA won a massive mandate in 2014, on the basis of a promise to alter the status quo and break the linearity in areas like employment, agri productivity, social harmony, trade, manufacturing etc. In past 4years, the government has mostly failed in providing a "Reset" of any sorts. Despite the audacious attempts like replacement of all high denomination currency suddenly, scraping of periodic planning process and replacement of planning commission with a more academic body like NITI Aayog, we have not seen a Reset, like the one seen in 1991-92 and 1998-2000.

In 1991-92, the then government moved decisively to end the distinct socialist bias in the economic policy, that constricted India's economic development and integration of India's economy with the global economy.

Economy and markets were opened for foreign investors. Forex regime was liberalized under LERMS. MRTP restrictions were materially eased. Under new industrial policy a large number of industries and sectors were freed from licensing requirements. Capital controls were substantially eased, and office of capital controller (CCI) was abolished. Capital markets were liberalized. SEBI and NSE were established. The role of public sector was redefined and the process of disinvesting government stake in PSEs initiated. Civil aviation and telecom sectors were opened to private sector. New age private banks were allowed to operate as full service operators. Election process was dramatically improved and enhanced.

WTO membership in 1995 also changed a lot of things for India. Pulse Polio Mission launched in 1995 has also been a huge success.

Then during 1998-2004, another Reset was effected the government, taking the process started in 1991-92 to a much higher orbit.

The government gave up most of its monopolies. Private sector participation, in core sectors like coal, power, roads & highways, oil & gas, insurance, etc. was allowed. Digital connectivity was provided a massive thrust through New Telecom Policy, along with road and rail connectivity. PM rural road program (PMGSY) has been one of the best government programs in independent India. National connectivity projects like development of Golden Quadrilateral under PPP model, Delhi Metro Rail Project (that became a role model for many mass rapid transport systems (MRTS) in India and abroad, were initiated. The process of disinvestment in PSEs was enhanced substantially. Sarva Siksha Abhiyan was a massive effort (and successful) to bring children to school. Fiscal Responsibility Act provided statutory framework for fiscal discipline.

Unfortunately, no such Reset has been planned by the incumbent government, and in that sense it has belied the massive mandate...to continue next week

Also read

Thursday, May 3, 2018

Four years of Modi rule - 2

"Old maids sweeten their tea with scandal."

—Josh Billings (American, 1818-1885)

Word for the day

Pococurante (n)

A careless or indifferent person.

Malice towards none

It seems that the 'B' team of PM Modi, including BJP chief ministers and central ministers, has been assigned the duty to displace Rahul Gandhi as the most popular character amongst Indian joke writers.

As of this morning RaGa is place at 10th position, with 6 out of top 10 spots being occupied by BJP leaders.

First random thought this morning

The political discourse in the country stopped long back being funny. Traversing the vast and tough terrains of pugnacity it has now entered the grubby terrain of repugnance and nausea.

The unfortunate part is that when seen through the prism of social media, the political establishment appears to be reflecting the people in general, as should generally happen in a democracy.

The consolation is that we all know and believe that it is not the true character of India and Indians. We shall see politics reflecting the true character of India and Indians soon. Amen!

Four years of Modi rule - 2

Evaluating the performance of the incumbent government purely on the basis of available statistical data is tough for a variety of reasons.

For example, in many cases either there is no base, or base has been changed. In many cases adequate data is not available to make a meaningful assessment. In yet some other cases, the years of efforts have yielded fruits in past four years. In such cases affording the entire credit to incumbent government may not be completely justifiable.

It is therefore only appropriate, in my view, to assess the performance on both quantitative and qualitative criteria.

Moreover, the promises made by the leaders of BJP in run up to elections have been very ambitious and were presented very forcefully. This becomes a constraint in making an objective assessment as the tendency becomes to assess the performance against promises rather than the base data.

Nonetheless, here is my assessment.

First, let's note the positives.

Continuity: The best aspect of the 4year Modi Rule is the continuity he has maintained in policies, methods, and programs of the previous governments. The government under Mr. Modi not only has continued with a majority of the social programs, economic initiatives and socio-economic & strategic policies of the previous governments, but enhanced them materially.

GST, RERA, IBC, Aadhar, DBT, GAAR, Integrated energy policy especially energy security, APMC reforms, monetary policy setting mechanism, import substitution through indigenization of technology and production, etc. are some of the examples where pace of execution has increased noticeably in past four years.

Programs like rural housing, rural roads, rural electrifications, agriculture productivity enhancement (especially pulses mission, dairy development), financial inclusion and digital connectivity have gained traction in past four years.

Federal cooperation has gained momentum after 14th Finance Commission recommendations were implemented, redrawing the center state revenue sharing.

The government has also commendably resisted the temptation to temper with the principles laid down by the Supreme Court for allocation and sale of national resources like minerals, telecom spectrum etc.

Even more commendable is the commitment to the fiscal tightening path and enlargement of tax base, initiated by the previous government and indulging in the fiscal profligacy for political expediency.

There are many efforts of the government, outcome of which cannot be determined today, as these still remain work in progress, especially programs like sustainability, cleanliness, etc......to continue tomorrow

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