"A work of art
that contains theories is like an object on which the price tag has been
left."
— Alexander Pope
(English, 1688-1744)
Word
for the day
Lexicon (n)
The vocabulary of a particular language, field, social class, person,
etc.
Malice
towards none
US presidential election is
turning out be quite like Bihar assembly poll last year.
Do you also see similarity
between a variety of women accusing Trump of outraging their modesty (in some
cases 20-30yrs ago) and the spate of intelligent people returning their awards?
First random thought this morning
The present Indo-Pak policy of China is eerily similar to the
Indo-Pak policy of USA till a few years ago.
China wants to have good relation with India for mutual economic benefits,
and wants to keep Pakistan in good stead for geo-political reasons. Much like
the USA in the decades of 1980, 1990 and 2000.
I wonder, why is it necessary for China to repeat history to learn
from history?
Smart cities - Smart people
I had the opportunity of visiting Andhra Pradesh Capital Region
last week. Mostly located between the cities of Vijaywada (Krishna District)
and Guntur (Guntur District), the area is fast emerging as a new hotspot of
economic activity.
The visit was quite revealing in the sense that it highlighted to
me the great economic opportunity and lack of vision in availing this
opportunity.
I thought it pertinent to share my observations with the readers
on three counts - (a) It lets them make a realistic evaluation of the political
promise in the country by applying an appropriate discounting factor; (b) It
highlights the great economic potential that is going unexploited; and (c) It
highlights some of the key socio-economic trends that may not be necessarily
local to this region alone.
The Andhra Pradesh Capital Region (APCR) is being propagated as
one of the smartest urban agglomerate in the country. But the planning and
execution so far does not suggest it to be really evolving into the one. The
planners, it seems, have learned little from the degeneration of Bengaluru,
Gurugram and Mumbai suburbs into a civic nightmare. For example, consider the
following:
1. The Andhra Pradesh
Capital Region (APCR) is proposed to be served through Gannavaram Airport near
Vijaywada city, and Vijaywada and Guntur railway stations.
Today, it takes anywhere between 1-2hrs to travel the distance
from the airport. But as the process of shifting the capital accelerates, the
traffic may rise multifold. To reach APCR from airport, one must cross the
Krishna river. No matter how many bridges are built, traffic conditions shall
remain poor.
Vijaywada railway station is already one of the busiest in the
country. Given its location and plans for expansion, the area is certain to
become a mess in 10years.
2. With 31k people per
sqkm, Vijaywada is already one of the most densely populated city globally. So
far Vijaywada and Guntur have been populated mostly by traders and rich
farmers. Real estate development has become a major commercial activity in past
3-4years. The latest plans include bringing the ITeS sector to the region in a
big way.
The developments are being marketed to the people as massive
economic opportunity. But no one is telling people to prepare for a dramatic
change in their lifestyle. A city where "anywhere-to-anywhere" travel
time had always been 10-15minutes, it is painful to spend hours on the roads.
People are already getting restless. Drivers honk like crazy. Soon we will have
cases of road rage.
3 Smart cities should
mostly be about smart people. My enquiries with people suggest that there is no
plan to train and prepare people for the transition, that is inevitably going
to be painful and traumatic, especially for the older people.
================
Andhra Pradesh has the longest coastline in the country, with a
number of serene beaches. The state also has many scared temples like Tirupati
Devsthan. Intuitively, tourism, both religious and leisure, should naturally be
the mainstay of State's economy.
However, nothing on the ground suggests that anyone is even
thinking about this. There are talks of industrial corridors, IT parks, agro
parks but nothing on this huge potential.
Manglagiri in Guntur district (15kms from Vijaywada) is a temple
town. A very sacred ancient temple of Lord Narsimha (an incarnation of Lord
Vishnu) is situated here on a sleeping volcano. The town is also famous for
handloom sarees and dress material.
The town has absolutely no tourism infrastructure. No hotels;
narrow lanes; no parking space; no Hindi/English speaking drivers or guides -
nothing.
Simlarly, Vijaywada has Kanak Durga Temple, one of the most
prominent amonsgt 52 Shakti Peethas in the country. Again no tourist
infrastructure.
Both these temples, and many others in the region, have the
potential to become economic magnets like Tirupati, Vaishno Devi, etc. But does
anyone care.
The rural areas in Krishna and Guntur districts are as beautiful
as Vietnam, Cambodia and Taiwan (the popular tourist destinations these days).
But no one seems to care.
I had the privilege of spending a day with M. Vindo Babu (a road
contractor) and his wife Lakshmi Tulsi (an academician). The couple runs a
school for 500 children in Vijaywada. 300 of these students are funded by the
couple (fee, uniform, meal, post school coaching).
Lakshmi, the principal, told me that the normal schedule of
schools in Vijaywada (and elsewhere in the state) is usually 10-12hrs even for
middle classes. These schools are run as factory for producing medical,
engineering and accounting professionals. A majority of schools even do not
offer humanity as a subject in senior classes.
Tell me without knowledge of their history, geography and Hindi -
how these children could be expected to make a career in tourism as a industry.
This factory model of education is also destroying the local arts and cultural
traditions - something for which southern Indian states are traditionally
reputed for.
===============
I may highlight some of these trends as follows:
(a) There is hardly any family in the region that does
not have a member working or settled in a foreign country. Going abroad for
studies and work is no longer a status symbol. It has become as mundane a part
of the middle class life style as preparing for competitive examinations.
(b) There are numerous instances of young people
returning from foreign shores or leaving corporate jobs and taking up
agriculture as a profession. Predominantly cash crops, organic farming, farm
automation, integrated farms, staggered selling of produce to maximize returns
are key features of the farms being cultivated and managed by these
professionals. In Guntur, for example, almost 25% farmers are now not selling
their turmeric crop within 3months of harvesting.
(c) Real Estate development that gathered
tremendous pace in past 3-4years is taking a pause. Liquidity is badly stuck in
the half completed projects. Investors are losing patience as opportunity cost
is rising. There is huge latent demand from actual users - who are preferring
to wait for more price correction. A 1-1.5% fall in interest rates and higher
liquidity in the hands of investors and developers could make the actual user
blink. The first such instance could actually soon turn into a stampede.
(d) Obesity is becoming a class wise phenomenon. Young
students and professionals are mostly health conscience and preferring healthy
food and habits. While the middle aged, businessmen, government employees, and
service providers are showing a tendency to become obese. Size zero is no
longer a fashion.
(e) Even in traditional societies of South
India, religion is fast becoming more a matter of fear & desire rather than
spiritual attainment and social order.
(f) Most traditional rituals are fast becoming
mere formality to be performed mechanically without understanding the nuances.
The majority of priests and the current generation of elders does perform
religious and traditional rituals more out of the fear of punishment for
non-compliance rather than as an enhancement of quality of life.
(g) The fetish for gold and precious stones is
still uncompromising. But a significant portion is now imitation. Younger
people even in rural areas do not see gold as a good investment. People prefer
iPhone a better wedding gift rather than gold jewellery. A temple trustee said
- they prefer bonds & cash over gold as donation.
===============
I may conclude the series by summing up my observations as
follows:
1. There is huge gap between the political
promise and the execution capabilities. A discounting factor of 50% to 67%,
depending upon the area of promise, needs to be applied for incorporating the
promise into any investment strategy.
2. The huge unexploited economic potential of
the country is now part of the folklores in global markets. There is little evidence
that the politicians and administrators have the mindset and/or ideas which may
be pre-requisite for exploiting this vast potential.
3. The chasm between the political vision of the
Indian society and the actual socio-economic practices is widening rapidly
leading to material rise in the cases of disagreement, defiance and
non-compliance.
Trust me I am not trying to be a mere Gadfly here. In fact I do
not like gadflies. The idea is to gather inputs that are important for laying
assumptions for formulation of an appropriate investment strategy. Offering
suggestions to the policymakers, based on the observations made during various
journeys, is only incidental.
Let me now offer some illustrative suggestions to the policymakers
(the Governments in Andhra Pradesh and Center in this case).
A. Think big and create world class tourism
infrastructure in the state - something that will beat Thailand and Singapore.
Do not waste resources and efforts to replicate the industrial base left behind
in Telangana. Motivate (not force) people to learn Hindi, English and many
other foreign languages. Promote and subsidize schools that teach culinary
skills (food from across the country & globe), languages, hospitality
management. Plan roads that would be sufficient even after 50years. Build an
eight lane elevated circular express encircling the city, with exit planned in
a way that no one needs to travel more than two kms outside that expressway.
B. Train local people how to live in a global
city - etiquettes, commercialization, civic standards.
C. Assign premium to your culture, traditions,
history and religion. Adapt it to the modern times and technology, while
maintaining their sanctity and purity.
D. Transform all factories (aka Schools) into
centers of learnings, where kids can study whatever they like.
