Based on our interaction with numerous people across the country,
we are of the view that Narendra Modi is emerging as a “phenomenon”, much like
Mrs. Indira Gandhi. He had been a popular leader amongst urban middle class for
long. However, in recent times his popularity is extending beyond the
traditional base as he gains popularity amongst rural and semi urban
population.
The following are some key conclusions we draw from our
interactions:
What Modi means to his supporters
At this point in time most of Modi’s support from outside the
traditional BJP support base is emanating from strong anti establishment
sentiments, especially amongst youth.
Not surprisingly, the traditional Indian psychology of divine
intervention at the time of crisis is playing in his favor. We discovered that
he is being seen as divine intervention that will get India rid of the current
social, political, and economic crisis.
What it means for Indian politics
In the immediate term, Mr. Modi’s leadership provides a strong,
decisive, and marketable face to the BJP’s campaign that was missing in post
Vajpayee period. This has certainly lifted the sagging spirits of BJP cadre and
made the floating voters thoughtful.
However, the implication of this development could be much more
significant on a longer term basis. This move could potentially culminate in
creation of a sustainable alternative to the Congress Party – a process that
started in 1975. In our view, the probability of this happening over next
decade, should Modi become PM, would be close to certainty.
This essentially means that de facto federalization of
Indian political structure would take place at an accelerated pace. This would
boost Indian economy much more than all the economic reforms implemented and
conceived so far.
Moreover, the erosion of traditional support base for Congress
could be sustainable unlike 1977 when the Congress was still the dominating
force in many states. This tie, as the opinion poll suggest, post polls the
dominance of Congress might get confined to just Maharashtra, Karnataka and few
smaller states.
What it means for Indian economy
In our view, considering the present state of socio-economic
development of various parts of the country, it would be 10-15years too early
to test the Laissez-faire model at the pan-India level. Modi’s Gujarat model
therefore may need significant adjustments at the national level. Perhaps an
amalgam of Gujarat’s Laissez-faire and Chhattisgarh’s socialist models could
provide a more workable model at this point in time.
Therefore, Modi becoming PM might help the business sentiments
initially, but expecting any dramatic shift in economic policies and reforms in
next 18months would be little farfetched.
Thought for the day
“And forget not that the earth delights to feel your bare feet and the winds long to play with your hair.”
Khalil Gibran (Lebanese, 1883-1931 )
Word of the day
Scabrous (Adj)
Full of difficulties.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Shri Nārada Uvāca
Should stocks exchanges have banned derivative contracts on the underlying stock of Financial Technology and moved the stock to Trade for Trade segment immediately after the NSEL controversy broke out?
No comments:
Post a Comment