The coronation of Mr. Narendra Modi as PMship candidate of BJP
has caught the imagination of people worldwide. Some unconfirmed reports
suggest that Modi might have even beaten US president Obama as the most
searched person on a single day. No other Indian politician from India may have
raised so much inquisition since Rajiv Gandhi.
It would therefore not be prudent to dismiss Mr. Modi just
as media hype, in our view.
What does it mean for Indian politics?
In the immediate
term, Mr. Modi’s leadership provides a strong, decisive, and marketable face to
the BJP’s campaign that was missing in post Vajpayee period. This has certainly
lifted the sagging spirits of BJP cadre and made the floating voters
thoughtful.
This should certainly help BJP in state assembly elections to
be held in next 2months. As most recent opinion polls have suggested,
confirming the findings of our “Discover India” trip this summer (see side
bar), BJP is likely to win at least three out of 4 states going for polls.
This timely decision also provides sufficient time for
non-aligned parties like AIDMK, TDP, TMC etc. to make an assessment and take a
considered decision about joining NDA pre or post election. In our view, as the wave
in favor of Mr. Modi gathers more momentum, many regional parties may come closer
to BJP or at least move further away from the Congress Party.
However, the implication of this development could be much
more significant on a longer term basis. This move could potentially culminate
in creation of a sustainable alternative to the Congress Party – a process that
started in 1975.
In our view, the probability of this happening over next
decade, should Modi become PM, would be close to certainty. This essentially
means that de facto federalization of
Indian political structure would take place at an accelerated pace. This would
boost Indian economy much more than all the economic reforms implemented and
conceived so far.
Insofar as the debate over Modi vs. L. K. Advani is
concerned, it is pertinent to remember that this debate has always been there
in the form of Advani vs. Vajpayee. The only difference is that this time Mr.
Advani has assumed the “secular” role, traditionally associated with Mr.
Vajpayee. The acceptance of Mr. Advani to the parties like JDU and SP as
“secular” face of BJP is indeed an encouraging sign for BJP as it keeps the
door open, should BJP fail to win 185 Lok Sabha seats on its own.
Announcement of Modi’s candidature has certainly put
Congress on the back foot. It now faces a serious problem. It would want to
hide Rahul Gandhi to avoid a presidential like contest, in which Modi would be
a strong favorite. It would not want to project Dr. Manmohan Singh either, as
his popularity has hit the nadir. And Mrs. Sonia Gandhi is still not willing to
assume responsibility and be accountable for her acts.
…to continue
Previous posts in
the Mandate 2014 series:
Thought for the day
“A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way.”
Mark Twain (American, 1835-1910 )
Word of the day
Monad (n)
A single unit or entity.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Shri Nārada Uvāca
Nifty has now rallied 1000points from lows of 28th August 2013.
How much of this could be assigned to (a) Bernanke; (b) Raghuram Rajan and (c) Narendra Modi?
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