Thought for the day
“Once you make a decision, the universe conspires to make
it happen.”
-
R. W. Emerson (American, 1803-1882)
Word for the day
Bosky (adj)
Covered with bushes, shrubs, and small trees; woody; shady
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
Does Congress understand the meaning of bipartisan
legislations?
When you pass a law because the opposition agreed to your
request for a bipartisan legislation, you do not claim sole credit for that law
(Food Security, Lokpal, Land Acquisition etc.).
India needs a true coalition, even if it means
a third front
Prior to 2009 elections, the scare of ‘insidious’
communists and Mayawati coming to power was so pervasive that nobody was
willing to even reason why the communists were bad and why it was not
preposterous for Dr. Manmohan Singh (MMS) to destabilize the government and
nation in the extremely tough global conditions, just for civil nuclear deal
whose benefits, if at all, would be seen only beyond 2020.
In hindsight many would be regretting market euphoria post the
Congress victory in 2009 general elections. Investors, businessmen, traders all
celebrated the election results as beginning of new era in Indian politics and
economics. 56 months of UPA II have largely undone all the optimism seen in May
2009.
It’s poll time again; and investors are positioning themselves
as per their estimates of the May 2014 election results. So far the majority
seems to be betting on a Narendra Modi led NDA government. However, opinion
polls that may come out in next 4-10weeks may upset many calculations.
The polls conducted in past few months indicate that the
Congress led UPA constituents should lose ground in the election due to various
governance related and economic issues; but BJP led NDA is also not likely to
improve its tally dramatically. So there are chances that we have 1989 or 1996
like situation where so called third front could have a shot at forming
government with or without support of Congress or BJP. Some are even seeing a
AAP (50+) government with Congress (~120) and other Mr. Cleans (Nitish, Navin,
Mamta) supporting it to keep BJP out.
The mute question is should investors be worried about this
probability of a non-BJP non-Congress
government that may have left leaning AAP, Mamta or Communists as its
constituents?
In my view - absolutely not. The investors should rather be
happy with the prospects of a true coalition coming to power.
In my view, post independence the best periods for the Indian
economy have been those when a “coalition” government was in power.
I do not consider UPA II a coalition. TMC, NCP, DMK all
have same socio-economic agenda as the Congress.
By “coalition” we do not mean multi party governments. In our
view, coalition government means where people with different and many a time
completely diverging socio-economic policies jointly participate in a
government. They arrive at the common minimum agenda of agreement and focus on
executing the same, hence avoiding conflicts and logjams.
The first cabinet of India post independence had R. K.
Shanmukham Shetty (Finance), Shyama Prasad Mukherjee (Industries) B. R.
Ambedkar (Law) and Jagjiwan Ram (Labor). These people did not subscribe to the
Nehruvian socio-economic agenda, but we still got a robust socio-economic
framework. The singular governments of Nehru (post BRA, RML, SPM - 1956 and
1961), Indira Gandhi (1971, 1980), Rajeev Gandhi (1984) are not really known
for good governance or socio-economic reforms.
In my view equal
credit for MNREGA and RTI, two major reforms done during UPA I should be given to the communists, who
ensured that the Congress Party stays focused on the promise of inclusive
growth and accountable administration.
Morarji Desai (1977 – FERA dilution, Gandhian socialism), V. P.
Singh (1989 – tax reforms, social justice), PV Narsingh Rao (1991 -
liberalization, delicensing), Devegoda/IK Gujaral (1996 – dream budget),
Vajpayee (1998, 1999 – divestment, infra development) and Manmohan Singh (2004
– RTI, MNREGA) were all coalition governments supported by
socialists/communists. These governments are all remembered for socio-economic
reforms causing fundamental positive changes in the economy. None of these
governments is remembered for non-governance, anti market policies or anti
business stance.
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