Vijay Kumar Gaba: BJP

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Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Exploring India – Part 2

In the past three weeks our team travelled through eight out of ten administrative divisions of Madhya Pradesh (MP), covering thirty six out of fifty two districts in the state. I may share some key points from the socio-economic and political assessment made by the team.

Socio-economic assessment

From socio-economic perspective, MP comprises of easily distinguishable three states –

1. Tribal areas that are extremely poor; lack basic amenities (especially health and education); not properly connected; agrarian; highly contended; and mostly integrated with nature. Though the non-tribal elements and cultures have started to make inroads in these areas from the fringes, the impact so far is limited. Mobile phones, packaged snacks, pan masala (chewing tobacco sachets), motorcycles (scooty), small solar panels, shirt-pants, denim, plastic crockery, are main signs of what is commonly known as “modern civilization” in the tribal areas of the state.

In a state that is least divided on religious lines, one key area of struggle in the tribal areas appears to be between missionaries attached to various religious organizations and social workers who do not subscribe to any particular religion. While all try to help the tribal population, there is a persistent strife.

2. Modern cities like Indore and Gwalior that have emerged as prominent centers of higher education and IT services. These cities are as modern, developed, diverse and cosmopolitan as any other major city in the country. The rate of growth in this part is high

3. Rural areas and smaller cities & towns that sustain on agriculture & horticulture, trading of farm produce, food processing, public sector undertakings, mining and government services. In the past one decade this part of the state has gathered some steam and is witnessing higher but still below potential growth. The crops have diversified to more cash crops, horticulture and forest produce; tourism has improved due to better road and civil aviation development; mining, electricity and numerous defence units have also seen faster development.

The inequalities in these three parts of the state are stark and inexplicable. City of Indore is counted amongst the top centers for higher education in the country and is ranked as the cleanest city in the country. Merely 100 miles away from Indore is Khandwa district, home to Korku Tribal who live in abject poverty and ignorance. The tribal population in the adjoining Burhanpur, Betul, Chhindwara districts areas is also not placed any better. In fact there seems to be little connect between the three parts of the state.

The state has tremendous potential for religious, historical, ecological, adventure and leisure tourism. Unfortunately, it has not been able to attract rich tourists beyond Khajuraho and Tiger Safaris. A large proportion of the tourists visiting the state are local budget tourists or poor pilgrims. The development trajectory of the state appears lacking a clear vision. A small business community owns most of the industry and mining business and follows a typical colonial business model. The native tribal population, who is the legitimate owner of the abundant natural wealth of the state, is mostly deprived of the benefits.

Thankfully, unlike the neighboring UP and Rajasthan, the educated youth of the state is still not eager to migrate to Mumbai, Bengaluru or foreign shores. A large proportion of these youth is content with whatever is available in their home towns; though the restlessness may be increasing with each passing year.

Political assessment

The state is scheduled to have assembly elections in the next seven to eight months. However, the political activities are still subdued and limited to some inaugurations and facilitation rallies by the incumbent Chief Minister Mr. Shivraj Singh Chouhan (BJP) and Mr. Kamal Nath (Indian National Congress), who claims to be the primary challenger to the incumbent chief minister.

Not much political activities are visible in hinterlands and at block & village levels; except that the aspiring candidates have started putting up random posters to increase their visibility to the decision makers in Bhopal and Delhi.

The religious fervor that is visible in neighboring UP is not present in the state except in Bhopal, Indore and Ujjain. The politics therefore is mostly focused on caste, class and local personalities.

The incumbent government appears to be facing significant anti-incumbency; but the primary challenger is not very popular outside Jabalpur and Narmadapuram divisions. Though the internal conflict within the Congress party has reduced significantly after departure of Jyotiraditya Scindia; the acceptability of Kamal Nath may not be significant in northern (Chambal, Gwalior, Sagar divisions) and eastern (Rewa and Shadol divisions), areas of the state.

The other parties like BSP, SP, AAP etc. have insignificant localized presence and may not be a relevant factor in the election. Surprisingly, despite abject poverty, exploitation and inequalities there is no presence of the communist movement in the state.

Though it may be early days to make a clear assessment, as of now the state seems to be heading towards a close contest, like 2018, with BJP having a small lead. The situation could change if either of two major parties announces a change in local leadership. The central leaderships of both the major parties have a limited role in the local politics of the state; as their appeal may be limited to a few large cities only.

Also see Exploring India – Part 1

Wednesday, January 5, 2022

Political ambitions driving the economics

योगस्थ: कुरु कर्माणि सङ्गं त्यक्त्वा धनञ्जय |

सिद्ध्यसिद्ध्यो: समो भूत्वा समत्वं योग उच्यते ||2:48||

Be steadfast in the performance of your duty, O Arjun, abandoning attachment to success and failure. Such equanimity is called Yog. (Srimad Bhagavad Gita, Chapter 2 Verse 48)

बुद्धियुक्तो जहातीह उभे सुकृतदुष्कृते |

तस्माद्योगाय युज्यस्व योग: कर्मसु कौशलम् ||2:50||

One who prudently practices the science of work without attachment can get rid of both good and bad reactions in this life itself. Therefore, strive for Yog, which is the art of working skillfully (in proper consciousness). (Srimad Bhagavad Gita, Chapter 2 Verse 50)

In the present times, ‘politics’ is a struggle to find balance between economics and popularity.

Good economics (fiscal prudence; balanced monetary policy; equitable taxation; etc.) usually does not get popular votes. Whereas poor economics (subsidies; helicopter money; unsustainable incentives like tax concessions, lower rates, subprime credit; etc.) may get popular votes in the near term, but it creates enough problems (inflation, unemployment, lower growth etc.) for the people as well as politician in power over mid to long term.

Unfortunately, most modern day politicians show a natural bias towards popularity over economics as it helps them in gaining and retaining power. Recent visits to three states going to elections in the next couple of months has shown that Indian politicians are no exception to this general rule.

Politicians from all parties are promising a variety of freebies to lure the voters. Free electricity and direct cash in the bank accounts of adult women are two most popular promises. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is governing Delhi presently, is showcasing the Delhi model of governance (free electricity and improvement in public education) in these states and gaining support. In fact it is emerging as the main contender in Punjab and a strong challenger in Uttarakhand. The principal opposition in UP (Samajwadi Party) and Uttarakhand (Congress) have certainly taken a few leaves out of theAAP book. In UP and Uttarakhand, the ruling BJP is apparently seeking votes on the issues of good governance and development. However, on the ground, emphasis on subsidies, freebies and revival of Hindu nationalism is conspicuous.

My interactions with people in these states indicate that no party in Uttarakhand and Punjab may get a decisive mandate; though Congress seems to have a marginal edge in Punjab. In UP BJP may retain power with a clear majority, though its tally may be much lower than 2017 elections. If I may summarize the input received from various media reports, opinion polls and other sources, the other two states, i.e., Goa and Manipur, may also see an indecisive mandate.

In all the states, religion and caste remain key considerations for most political parties. In UP and Uttarakhand, predominantly Hindu states, all parties are vying with each other to prove themselves more Hindu than the others. The constitutional mandate of “secularism”, that used to be a key theme of non BJP parties in previous elections, is conspicuous by its absence from the main narrative.

Unsurprisingly, however, none of the parties seems to be concerning itself with the teachings of Hindu scriptures. For example, the above cited two verses of Srimad Bhagavad Gita, propound some quintessential qualities for the leaders (or politicians in modern context), viz., steadfastness in pursuit of righteous duty, equanimity, equipoise, and detachment.

The Lord says perform your righteous duties without bothering about success or failure; without attaching yourself with the results. Listening to what Lord says, the politicians today must be pursuing Good economics – adopt policies which would bring the prices down, create productive employment, make taxation equitable, and make growth inclusive and sustainable, even if pursuit of these policies does not fetch enough votes.

It is not that various governments have always ignored this guidance and pursued only poor economics. But they have definitely always shown a bias towards poor economics. Usually, the governments resorted to good economics only when it was inevitable, i.e., when the economy faced a serious crisis, e.g., Congress in early 1990s and NDA in late 1990s and early 2000s.

Obviously, the economic policy has been mostly driven by the political ambitions of the party in power, rather than the steadfastness and righteousness.

Of course, many would argue that this is not true about the incumbent government at center. I would certainly like to hear the arguments to find if there is any material difference.

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Good intentions won't suffice. Execution needed too.

In the year 2015, the global leaders committed to an ambitious agenda of attaining the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the year 2030. SDGs aim to improve economic, environmental and social aspects of the wellbeing of various societies. SDGs include 17 goals, 169 targets and 306 national indicators.

Being the host to the second largest pool of population, India played a prominent role in the formulation of SDGs. Having committed to the SDGs, it is incumbent upon the government, both national and state, that the national development agenda is congruent with these Goals.

While a majority of goals focus on making perceptible impact on the quality of life of underprivileged, sustainable economic development is the key underlying theme. It is incumbent upon the signatories to the charter of SGDs to ensure "decent employment and economic growth", development of "industry, innovation and infrastructure", development of "sustainable cities and communities" and promoting "responsible consumption and production".

Most of the policies, programs and legislative changes made by our governments (center and state) could be seen the context of SDGs. Move towards Universal Basic Income, Food security, Ayushman Bharat and Jan Aushdhi, New Education Policy & Establishing Centers of Excellence, statutory and procedural changes for gender equality, Jal Shakti, Focus on renewable energy, Smart cities etc. are few examples of the intentions to make sincere efforts in attaining the SDGs.

While we have made decent progress on showing commitment to the attainment of SGDs, and devising a multitude of plans, execution looks seriously lacking.

As per the latest data available on NITI website, only three states (Kerala, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu) and two Union territories (Chandigarh and Puducherry) have made satisfactory progress on attaining SDGs. The most populated states of UP and Bihar are at the bottom of the league with dismal performance. Incidentally the track record of most BJP ruled states is not encouraging.