Showing posts with label Gita. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gita. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 5, 2022

Political ambitions driving the economics

 योगस्थ: कुरु कर्माणि सङ्गं त्यक्त्वा धनञ्जय |

सिद्ध्यसिद्ध्यो: समो भूत्वा समत्वं योग उच्यते ||2:48||

Be steadfast in the performance of your duty, O Arjun, abandoning attachment to success and failure. Such equanimity is called Yog. (Srimad Bhagavad Gita, Chapter 2 Verse 48)

बुद्धियुक्तो जहातीह उभे सुकृतदुष्कृते |
तस्माद्योगाय युज्यस्व योग: कर्मसु कौशलम् ||2:50||

One who prudently practices the science of work without attachment can get rid of both good and bad reactions in this life itself. Therefore, strive for Yog, which is the art of working skillfully (in proper consciousness). (Srimad Bhagavad Gita, Chapter 2 Verse 50)

In the present times, ‘politics’ is a struggle to find balance between economics and popularity.

Good economics (fiscal prudence; balanced monetary policy; equitable taxation; etc.) usually does not get popular votes. Whereas poor economics (subsidies; helicopter money; unsustainable incentives like tax concessions, lower rates, subprime credit; etc.) may get popular votes in the near term, but it creates enough problems (inflation, unemployment, lower growth etc.) for the people as well as politician in power over mid to long term.

Unfortunately, most modern day politicians show a natural bias towards popularity over economics as it helps them in gaining and retaining power. Recent visits to three states going to elections in the next couple of months has shown that Indian politicians are no exception to this general rule.

Politicians from all parties are promising a variety of freebies to lure the voters. Free electricity and direct cash in the bank accounts of adult women are two most popular promises. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is governing Delhi presently, is showcasing the Delhi model of governance (free electricity and improvement in public education) in these states and gaining support. In fact it is emerging as the main contender in Punjab and a strong challenger in Uttarakhand. The principal opposition in UP (Samajwadi Party) and Uttarakhand (Congress) have certainly taken a few leaves out of theAAP book. In UP and Uttarakhand, the ruling BJP is apparently seeking votes on the issues of good governance and development. However, on the ground, emphasis on subsidies, freebies and revival of Hindu nationalism is conspicuous.

My interactions with people in these states indicate that no party in Uttarakhand and Punjab may get a decisive mandate; though Congress seems to have a marginal edge in Punjab. In UP BJP may retain power with a clear majority, though its tally may be much lower than 2017 elections. If I may summarize the input received from various media reports, opinion polls and other sources, the other two states, i.e., Goa and Manipur, may also see an indecisive mandate.

In all the states, religion and caste remain key considerations for most political parties. In UP and Uttarakhand, predominantly Hindu states, all parties are vying with each other to prove themselves more Hindu than the others. The constitutional mandate of “secularism”, that used to be a key theme of non BJP parties in previous elections, is conspicuous by its absence from the main narrative.

Unsurprisingly, however, none of the parties seems to be concerning itself with the teachings of Hindu scriptures. For example, the above cited two verses of Srimad Bhagavad Gita, propound some quintessential qualities for the leaders (or politicians in modern context), viz., steadfastness in pursuit of righteous duty, equanimity, equipoise, and detachment.

The Lord says perform your righteous duties without bothering about success or failure; without attaching yourself with the results. Listening to what Lord says, the politicians today must be pursuing Good economics – adopt policies which would bring the prices down, create productive employment, make taxation equitable, and make growth inclusive and sustainable, even if pursuit of these policies does not fetch enough votes.

It is not that various governments have always ignored this guidance and pursued only poor economics. But they have definitely always shown a bias towards poor economics. Usually, the governments resorted to good economics only when it was inevitable, i.e., when the economy faced a serious crisis, e.g., Congress in early 1990s and NDA in late 1990s and early 2000s.

Obviously, the economic policy has been mostly driven by the political ambitions of the party in power, rather than the steadfastness and righteousness.

Of course, many would argue that this is not true about the incumbent government at center. I would certainly like to hear the arguments to find if there is any material difference.

Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Memories of 1993

Last weekend I happened to attend couple of e-meetings. The participants were mostly financial market participants. Few business persons and professional also were present. The agenda was primarily to discuss the current economic scenario and the trends in financial markets. However, within few minutes, the discussion digressed to the current socio-political environment. The views of the participants rekindled the memories of 1993 in my mind.

It was summer of 1993. The country was in total turmoil at that time. The unprecedented balance of payment crisis in 1990-91 had forced the government to initiate significant economic reforms - some under pressure from IMF, some forced by the massive scam in financial markets, and some voluntarily. Many small and medium sized businesses - there were very few large businesses back then - were struggling for survival. Most of them would eventually become redundant over next one decade.

Financial markets were still reeling beneath the debris of the massive scam (popularly known as Harshad Mehta Scam); even though, the liberalization of capital markets had created a certain amount of excitement amongst businesses and market participants. The stocks markets were running far ahead of fundamentals on global buoyancy.

The global geo political situation was tense post the first Iraq war, the first war that was televised live on TV. Czech Republic had ceased to exist. Bill Clinton had just taken over as 42nd President of the United States and committed to widespread fiscal reforms in US. European Economic Community created a single market bringing European Union into existence. The global markets were buoyant though economy was not doing well. Few years later, the internet boom would start that will obliterate the memories of all previous stock market bubbles.

In India, the financial capital Mumbai was rocked by a series of bomb blasts killing hundreds of innocent people. The premier stocks exchange of the country (BSE) was also targeted by the terrorists. These blasts were reportedly carried out by hard line Muslim groups to avenge the demolition of a Mughal period disputed structure in Ayodhya. The decade old insurgency in Punjab had just peaked and was brought under control, while the situation in J&K had started to worsen.

So, while the country was struggling to revive from an economic debacle, it was also struggling with communal and sectarian violence. On political front, the killing of Rajiv Gandhi had weakened the Congress Party. It had started to lose significant ground in many states; in which it would get rendered irrelevant forever. 1991-1996 would be the last Congress Party government at the center, where it had ruled since independence, except for two short breaks during 1977-1980 and 1989-1991.

In these settings, I had a chance to interact with one of the most prominent politicians in the country at that time. The man was very enthusiastic about the Hindu renaissance in the country. He claimed that all the wrongs done to the country and its Hindu majority would be undone now and the aggressors would be put to their place. Being naive in the political and religious matters, I requested him, could I ask three questions. He was gracious enough to allow me the opportunity. I asked him the following three questions. Incidentally 27yrs later, I am still waiting for the answers.

1.         Does Ram belong to only Hindus or Indians?

2.    Does Brahma creates only Hindus; Vishnu nurtures and preserves only Hindus; and Mahadev destroys only Hindus? or they are lords of the universe and creator, preserver and destroyer of "life" per se.

3.    Does Vishnu incarnates to protect the rule of Dharma or rule of Hindus?

These days, my social media timeline is inundated with messages which claim Ram to be an Indian phenomenon. Incidentally, one Union Minister has recently mentioned Buddha also to be India's contribution to the global community.

As society we are moving away from Ram at accelerated pace. We are implying that Ram is capable of being insulted and respected by ordinary people; just like any other ordinary person. Even judiciary promptly admits complaints of insult to Ram. The judges fail to assimilate that their act of admitting such cases is equally hurtful to the sentiments of millions of devotees of Ram, as it seeks to trivialize Ram as ordinary citizen capable of being insulted.

Recently, some organizations have demanded Ayodhya like decision in cases of co-existing temple-mosques in Kashi and Mathura. I have still not heard any politician saying that these demands should be suppressed, lest they become more ardent and potentially violent.

In another development the elected Chief Minister of a State has declared that as "Yogi", he would not like to visit foundation laying ceremony of a mosque. My understanding of the term "Yogi" so far is based on what Lord Krishna narrated to Arjuna in Gita. For example-

sarva-bhūta-stham ātmānasarva-bhūtāni cātmani
īk
ate yoga-yuktātmā sarvatra sama-darśana

A true yogi always see’s God in all beings and he also see’s every being in God. A true transcendentalist see’s God everywhere.

ātmaupamyena sarvatra sama paśyati yo ‘rjuna
sukha
 vā yadi vā dukhasa yogī paramo mata

The person who is a true yogi never differentiates between any two persons. He see’s them equally both in happiness and distress.

Equanimity is thus the primary characteristics of a Yogi. But from the recent stance of the Chief Minister it appears that the color of robes is replacing equanimity as primary characteristics of a Yogi.

The short point is that we are likely to witness a fresh round of communal disharmony in the coming years. I am neither taking any sides nor would like to sit in judgment over the conduct of the government, judiciary and other organs of the society. I am just saying that like 1990s we are likely to witness political, economic, social and geopolitical turmoil in next couple of years.

My fellow investors though would be more interested in knowing whether we shall also see a dotcom like bubble in the stock markets also. Well, I believe that is already a work in progress. Just take care of your health and security.