Do it yourself

The US administration has imposed a 25% penal tariff on the goods imported from India, with few exceptions. The reason cited for this penal action is continued import of crude oil from Russia by the Indian refiners, despite the US administration insistence that sales proceeds from such oil sales are being used to finance the Russian war on Ukraine. These tariffs are over and above the MFN tariffs prevalent prior to 7th August 2025, and 25% reciprocal imposed with effect from 07th August. Considering the exemption for several items that are critical for the US supply chains, e.g., mobile phones, certain metal items, pharma, semiconductors, energy etc., the effective tariff rates on Indian exports to the US are estimated to be ~33%. India has termed this penal action “unfair, unjustified, unreasonable”. The public stance of the Indian government is that buying Russian oil is critical for our energy security, and it is our prerogative to decide from where to buy.  Considering the curr...

In his Independence Day speech, the prime minister announced that his government has proposed comprehensive reforms to the extant Goods and Services Tax (GST) structure. The proposals have been reportedly sent to the Group of Ministers (GoM). Two Groups of Ministers (comprising representatives of the State governments) — one on rate rationalization and another on compensation cess — will have to approve the proposals before they go to the GST Council for approval. The central government is quite confident that the GST Council members shall approve the proposals promptly, and it could be implemented before the forthcoming festival season. The stated objectives of the proposed GST reforms, focus on simplifying the tax system, reducing the tax burden, and promoting economic growth. Based on the publicly available information, the key highlights of the proposed GST reforms are as follows: Structural Reforms Correct inverted duty structures  to align input and output tax rates, reduce i...

  The Niti Aayog published a working paper titled “India’s Path to Global Leadership: Strategic Imperatives for Viksit Bharat @2047”, in April 2025. The paper presents a roadmap for India’s economic growth, encompassing sustainability, social inclusion, national security, and global leadership. The paper outlines a strategic framework for achieving the goal of a developed India by 2047, by focusing on four key tasks: (i) Economic Competitiveness and Growth; (ii) National Security and Stability; (iii) Global Partnerships and Strategic Influence; and (iv)Legal Reforms and Good Governance. The paper emphasizes that successful completion of these tasks will require collective effort, collaboration, and sustained commitment across all sectors of society, government, and industry. Summary of the working paper Four Strategic Pillars ·          Economic Competitiveness & Growth: streamline regulations, boost innovation (R&D, AI, sma...

Mr. Donald Trump has chosen to take some time before speaking with his Indian counterpart Mr. Narendra Modi. Trump has chosen to call the Chinese premier Xi Jinping, even before his inauguration. Prime Minister Modi has apparently sent a written congratulatory message to Trump, instead of calling him. This small pause in the top-level communication has triggered a debate about the shape of Indo-US relations in the near future. In my view, before drawing any conclusion from Trump’s pause, and writing obituaries of the Indo-US strategic partnership, we must study the evolution of Indo-US relationships. This relationship has evolved over the past 75 years. It is primarily based on mutual need and shared democratic values, and goes much beyond the personal equation of individual leaders. Prologue The foundation of Indo-US was laid during the 1949 visit of Prime Minister Nehru’s visit to the US and meeting with President Henry Truman. Nehru was welcomed by everyone he met during his multi w...

The 2025 th   year of the Christ is beginning on a very tentative note, particularly for investors in financial markets. The past four years have been relatively smooth for investors. With the benefit of hindsight, we can confidently claim that the markets were mostly driven by macro factors. Unprecedented liquidity infusion by the central banks and fiscal support to consumers across the world helped most asset classes to perform well. Despite massive global disruptions due to the pandemic and geopolitical, the volatility in markets was largely contained. Since most asset classes yielded decent returns for investors, they were not really pushed hard to make choices. However, the trend seen in the past few months is indicating that the conditions might change materially in the next 12-24 months. The macro trends may become ambivalent and unpredictable. Investors may need to make choices; and the return they would earn on their investment portfolios would largely depend on the choice...

The year 2024 is proving to be one of the worst years for political soothsayers. After a debacle in the Indian general elections last summer, psephologists have failed in the US presidential elections. The challenger Donald Trump emerged a winner, gaining popular votes to occupy the White House for four years with a clear majority in the US Congress and Senate. This kind of decisive mandate has been a rarity in US politics in the past four decades. Most of the media, political commentators, psephologists, and other experts completely failed to read the peoples’ mind and anticipated a victory for Kamala Harris. Post the election results, thousands of experts – research analysts, economists, strategists, geopolitical experts, money managers, etc. – have written reports running into millions of terabytes, forecasting the likely impact of Trump's victory on financial markets, currencies, commodities, geopolitics, and trade etc. Most of this analysis is based on Trump's election p...

The year 2024 started with the fervor of Ram Bhakti. The stock market made a new high in mid-January. Investors felt that the grand opening of Ram temple in Ayodhya will stimulate economic activity and provide a material impetus to economic growth. However, the stock market could not hold gains and ended the month of January almost unchanged. The interim budget in February was mostly a non-event, and markets ended the month only with marginal gains. Announcement of elections and early indications of a larger majority for the incumbent BJP took the markets to new highs in March. However, the markets remained circumspect about the election outcome. Below expectation results for 4QFY24 also did not help the markets. For three months (March-May), the Nifty50 gained ~2.5%. After the announcement of the election results, the Nifty50 has gained another ~3.5% from April closing level. Overall, the Nifty50 is up by ~7.5% YTD2024. The Bank Nifty has underperformed the benchmark Nifty50 and is ...