Vijay Kumar Gaba

In the past three weeks our team travelled through eight out of ten administrative divisions of Madhya Pradesh (MP), covering thirty six out of fifty two districts in the state. I may share some key points from the socio-economic and political assessment made by the team.

Socio-economic assessment

From socio-economic perspective, MP comprises of easily distinguishable three states –

1.    Tribal areas that are extremely poor; lack basic amenities (especially health and education); not properly connected; agrarian; highly contended; and mostly integrated with nature. Though the non-tribal elements and cultures have started to make inroads in these areas from the fringes, the impact so far is limited. Mobile phones, packaged snacks, pan masala (chewing tobacco sachets), motorcycles (scooty), small solar panels, shirt-pants, denim, plastic crockery, are main signs of what is commonly known as “modern civilization” in the tribal areas of the state.

In a state that is least divided on religious lines, one key area of struggle in the tribal areas appears to be between missionaries attached to various religious organizations and social workers who do not subscribe to any particular religion. While all try to help the tribal population, there is a persistent strife.

2.    Modern cities like Indore and Gwalior that have emerged as prominent centers of higher education and IT services. These cities are as modern, developed, diverse and cosmopolitan as any other major city in the country. The rate of growth in this part is high

3.    Rural areas and smaller cities & towns that sustain on agriculture & horticulture, trading of farm produce, food processing, public sector undertakings, mining and government services. In the past one decade this part of the state has gathered some steam and is witnessing higher but still below potential growth. The crops have diversified to more cash crops, horticulture and forest produce; tourism has improved due to better road and civil aviation development; mining, electricity and numerous defence units have also seen faster development.

The inequalities in these three parts of the state are stark and inexplicable. City of Indore is counted amongst the top centers for higher education in the country and is ranked as the cleanest city in the country. Merely 100 miles away from Indore is Khandwa district, home to Korku Tribal who live in abject poverty and ignorance. The tribal population in the adjoining Burhanpur, Betul, Chhindwara districts areas is also not placed any better. In fact there seems to be little connect between the three parts of the state.

The state has tremendous potential for religious, historical, ecological, adventure and leisure tourism. Unfortunately, it has not been able to attract rich tourists beyond Khajuraho and Tiger Safaris. A large proportion of the tourists visiting the state are local budget tourists or poor pilgrims. The development trajectory of the state appears lacking a clear vision. A small business community owns most of the industry and mining business and follows a typical colonial business model. The native tribal population, who is the legitimate owner of the abundant natural wealth of the state, is mostly deprived of the benefits.

Thankfully, unlike the neighboring UP and Rajasthan, the educated youth of the state is still not eager to migrate to Mumbai, Bengaluru or foreign shores. A large proportion of these youth is content with whatever is available in their home towns; though the restlessness may be increasing with each passing year.

Political assessment

The state is scheduled to have assembly elections in the next seven to eight months. However, the political activities are still subdued and limited to some inaugurations and facilitation rallies by the incumbent Chief Minister Mr. Shivraj Singh Chouhan (BJP) and Mr. Kamal Nath (Indian National Congress), who claims to be the primary challenger to the incumbent chief minister.

Not much political activities are visible in hinterlands and at block & village levels; except that the aspiring candidates have started putting up random posters to increase their visibility to the decision makers in Bhopal and Delhi.

The religious fervor that is visible in neighboring UP is not present in the state except in Bhopal, Indore and Ujjain. The politics therefore is mostly focused on caste, class and local personalities.

The incumbent government appears to be facing significant anti-incumbency; but the primary challenger is not very popular outside Jabalpur and Narmadapuram divisions. Though the internal conflict within the Congress party has reduced significantly after departure of Jyotiraditya Scindia; the acceptability of Kamal Nath may not be significant in northern (Chambal, Gwalior, Sagar divisions) and eastern (Rewa and Shadol divisions), areas of the state.

The other parties like BSP, SP, AAP etc. have insignificant localized presence and may not be a relevant factor in the election. Surprisingly, despite abject poverty, exploitation and inequalities there is no presence of the communist movement in the state.

Though it may be early days to make a clear assessment, as of now the state seems to be heading towards a close contest, like 2018, with BJP having a small lead. The situation could change if either of two major parties announces a change in local leadership. The central leaderships of both the major parties have a limited role in the local politics of the state; as their appeal may be limited to a few large cities only.

Also see Exploring India – Part 1

The sharp rise in socio-economic inequalities across the ‘democratic world’ has made the bulging bottom of the socio-economic pyramid even more attractive from ‘popular vote’ perspectives; and the thinnest ever top of the pyramid the most attractive from election funding and corruption purposes.

We are, therefore, witnessing (i) a larger role of governments in the economies; (ii) deeper influence of large corporates in the matters of economics and geopolitics; and (iii) preference for stronger (egotist; fascist; ultranationalist; hardliner whatever you prefer to call them) leaders who could be hailed as superhero – taxing the rich (mostly middle classes) and providing for the poor. It would be interesting to see what shape this opportunist politico-economic ideology finally acquires to become a legitimate widely acceptable political practice.

The Wikipedia page describing “Political Parties in the United States”, incidentally provides a good historical context to the latest transition in the global politico-economic order. It, inter alia, reads as follows:

“The first President of the United States, George Washington, was not a member of any political party at the time of his election or throughout his tenure as president. Furthermore, he hoped that political parties would not be formed, fearing conflict and stagnation, as outlined in his Farewell Address. The Founders “did not believe in parties as such, scorned those that they were conscious of as historical models, had a keen terror of party spirit and its evil consequences," but Richard Hofstadter wrote, "almost as soon as their national government was in operation, found it necessary to establish parties.”

In the past 150+ years the two dominant parties have changed their ideologies and base of support considerably but kept their names. The Democratic party, that in the aftermath of the Civil War was an agrarian pro-states-rights, anti-civil rights, pro-easy money, anti-tariff, anti-bank, coalition of Jim Crow "Solid South", Western small farmers, along with budding labor unions and Catholic immigrants; has evolved into what is as of 2020, a strongly pro-civil rights party, disproportionately composed of women, LGBT, union members, and urban, educated, younger, non-white voters. Over the same period the Republican Party has gone from being the dominant American "Grand Old Party" of business large and small, skilled craftsmen, clerks, professionals and freed African Americans, based especially in the industrial northeast; to a right-wing/conservative party loyal to Donald Trump, disproportionately composed of family businesses, less educated, older, rural, southern, religious, and white working class voters. Along with this realignment, political and ideological polarization has increased, norms have deteriorated, leading to greater tension and "deadlock" in attempts to pass ideologically controversial bills. (emphasis supplied)”

In the context of Indian politics, we see that all socialist parties have become feudal; BJP that started as a party of middle class upper caste businessmen and Hindu nationalists is winning elections on “social welfare program” agenda; the left of center Congress is striving hard to establish its Hindu credentials and Hardline Hindu Shiv Sena is preaching secularism.

The Indian National Congress which started with the Leninist concept of planned economy driven mainly through public sector; inserted the word “socialist” in the preamble of the Constitution of India”; curtailed free speech by imposing national emergency ended up as a strong votary of disinvestment of public sector; right to information; free trade and larger role for private sector.

BJP gained power on the promise of “less government” and is affording more power to the government; stifling transparency and free speech; has not pursued privatization in the past 8yrs of rule. ``Free ration”, “cheap (free) medicine” and cash subsidies have been its primary campaign slogans in most of the recent elections. The party with difference is now happy to be led by a strong leader who has vowed to destroy all its opponents.

Socialist parties like BSP, SP, RJD, LJP, TMC etc. have mostly become fiefdoms of leading families and appear more feudal in their conduct than anybody else.

The middle class people raised their voice against the rampant corruption of the Congress led UPA government leading to a nationwide movement that resulted in the birth of Aam Aadmi Party. The same party is now seen as a party of the poor financed by corrupt businessmen. Some of its leaders are facing allegations of serious corruption and communal rioting. Most professionals who enthusiastically joined the party have deserted it alleging lack of internal democracy and autocratic ways of the top leadership.

The traditional ideologies like free market, socialism, communism etc. have absolutely no role to play in the Indian politico-economic paradigm. The global transition might also have some reverberation in India also. However, insofar as the latest round of elections is concerned the results would hardly change anything in the broader context. Congress has nothing to lose in these elections; though stakes are high for both AAP and BJP. There could be some setbacks for both.