Let’s forget,
forgive and celebrate together!
Next issue of Morning Trekk will be published on Monday 5th March.
Thought for the day
"By working faithfully
eight hours a day you may eventually get to be boss and work twelve hours a
day."
—Robert Frost (American,
1874-1963)
Word for the day
Goldilocks (adj)
Not being extreme or not
varying drastically between extremes
Malice towards none
कौन अच्छा
है इस
ज़माने में
क्यूँ किसी को बुरा कहे कोई
— नासिर काज़मी
क्यूँ किसी को बुरा कहे कोई
— नासिर काज़मी
First random thought this morning
Problem: The number of stalled projects continue to rise
and are already at alarming level. Delay in statutory clearances, problems in
land acquisition, financial unviability due to cost overruns and/or changes in competitive
scenario, etc. are some major reasons. The staggering number is affecting
investors' confidence and slowing down private sector investment. As per the
latest Economic Survey top 100 stalled projects account for 75% of India's
total "promised investment".
PMO Solution: Change the base. Change the label from
"stalled" to "abandoned" or "shelved" or
"dropped" where promoters have no further intention to start
implementation.
We also shall regain the title of "fastest growing
economy" by changing the base year for calculation to 2017-18!
A sub-prime crisis brewing
As I highlighted in earlier posts, in past one decade there has
been significant rise in number of self employed people, as the job growth in
organized sector and public sector has stagnated (or marginally declined).
An extensive research is needed to assess whether this is a
cyclical trend or a structural change in the Indian economy.
Nonetheless, this trend may have contributed to a consistent
decline in the household savings.
While the rise in household investment in stock of publically
traded companies in past couple of years has been discussed and hailed widely,
the rise in personal loans (other than education and housing) has largely
escaped scrutiny. Moreover, contrary to popular narrative, the bank credit to
the priority sector (including Agriculture, MSME, Education and Housing) has
declined as percentage of adjusted net bank credit in past three years.
If we juxtapose - poor job growth; youth forced to "self employ"
and be underemployed or get employed in disguise; tightening bank credit to
MSME, education and housing; rise in "personal loans"; rise in high
cost microfinance; rise in consumer credit by NBFCs; rise in share of riskier
assets like equity in household savings portfolios - we get all the ingredients
of a sub-prime crisis brewing in the Indian economy.
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