Tuesday, March 6, 2018

2019 = 1977+1989?

"Most potters go in for earth tones and subdued things, whereas I like color."
—Beatrice Wood (American, 1893-1998)
Word for the day
Peculate (v)
To steal or take dishonestly (money, especially public funds, or property entrusted to one's care); embezzle.
Malice towards none
D'nile is not a river in Egypt.
#CongressParty
 
First random thought this morning
The race to show one's hatred, especially towards the establishment, was never so intense. A slight hint of opportunity and every one rushes to condemn the entire system, establishment, traditions, gender, religion, community etc. Not a thought is spared before painting the entire spectrum black. Unfortunately the race is invariably led by the elite and intellectuals.
A classic example was seen last week, when a couple of young girls decided to play a creepy prank on police. They complained that they have been hit by balloons filled by semen. Hundreds of "progressive" citizens instantaneously pounced on the opportunity and castigated "male gender", "Hindu traditions", "Holi festival", "Police department" and "apathetic society", without even bothering about the plausibility of the alleged crime!

2019 = 1977+1989?

The recently concluded elections for three north eastern state legislatures validated a variety of trends in Indian polity, particularly those that emerged in past 4years. Some of the trends could be listed as follows:
(a)   BJP has gained political ground across the country, primarily at the expense of the Congress Party.
(b)   Since, the emphatic Lok Sabha victory in 2014, BJP has managed to win almost all relevant elections, wherever it was the principal party straight in contest with the Congress Party.
Beyond the popular perception about the last Gujarat assembly elections, one must note that BJP won in spite of 25yrs of anti incumbency; a rather unimpressive local leadership that replaced charismatic Modi; poor cotton and groundnut crop realization leading to elevated farmers' distress; Patidar (traditional BJP voter) agitation; and Dalit unrest, etc.
(c)    The ideological base of Indian politics has mostly eroded.
The right wing BJP, in its hurry to grow a pan India base has taken the "inorganic growth" route, incorporating a large number of core group people from so called socialist, secular, caste based and/or regional parties. These new incumbents hardly subscribe to the core RSS ideology and BJP ethos.
The left parties, having lost most of their bastion, appears more keen to play second fiddle to the Congress Party.
The Congress Party is eager to align with the Socialist parties whose raison d'ĂȘtre has been anti Congressism. These Socialist Parties having degenerated into feudal fiefdoms of few families are also happy aligning with the Congress Party to retain their relevance as legitimate political force.
(d)   The Congress is now relegated to 3rd or lower position in states comprising more than 50% of India's voter base, viz., UP, Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, etc. There is nothing to suggest that the Party is even trying to regain its vote share in these states. It rather appear more willing to yield further ground to the respective strongest regional party in these states. So any alternative to BJP will be a fragmented coalition with no partner with pan India presence.
This situation is very similar to 1977, when all regional parties aligned to defeat the mighty Indira Gandhi. The interesting thing to note is that both in 1977 (Morarji Desai, Jagjiwan Ram, Raj Narayan, et. al.) and 1989 (V. P. Singh, Arif Mohammad Khan, M. M. Sayeed, V. C. Shukla, Satyapal Malik, et. al.) there were tall Congress leaders who challenged and defeated the Congress Party.
The point to ponder therefore is will history repeat itself or Modi shall remain invincible in 2019 and perhaps beyond too!

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