Thursday, February 8, 2018

Household savings - 1

"If only we'd stop trying to be happy we'd have a pretty good time."
—Edith Wharton (American, 1862-1937)
Word for the day
Lenity (n)
The quality or state of being mild or gentle, as toward others.
Malice towards none
Q. Should Caesar's wife be above all suspicion at all the time?
Answers:
Amit: Who is Caesar?
Rahul: Which wife?
Mamta: What's suspicion?
Swara: Why only wife?
Yogi: Take her mobile back
First random thought this morning
Suddenly, the entire country seems to be engrossed in a variety of conspiracy theories. The most popular ones suggest:
(a)   Some Congress leaders are planning a coup in NDA and in within BJP also, to weaken Modi and stitch up a formidable alliance that will decimate NaMo.
(b)   One senior Congress leader is planning to engineer a collapse in stock market later this year, so as to create an environment of negativity just before next general elections.
(c)    NaMo is planning to advance the next general election.

Household savings - 1


A careful reading of the Economic Survey 2017-18 and Union Budget FY19, gives an impression that policy makers' understanding of household savings and investment trends and preferences is piecemeal and therefore somewhat confused.
In my view, household savings is one of the most critical element of Indian economy. Ignoring it or undermining it, is certainly fraught with grave risk.
The consistent fall in household savings in past decade or so, is therefore a matter of concern and needs to be addressed.
Moreover, the recent change in the composition of household savings in favor of financial savings also needs closer scrutiny.
(a)          After rising for two decades since economic liberalization began in 1991, household savings have been declining since FY10.



(b)   The share of household savings in total savings declined from around 68 per cent in 2011-12 to 59 per cent in 2015-16. The savings of household sector as a ratio of GDP have declined from 23.6 per cent in 2011-12 to 19.2 per cent in 2015-16, while that of private corporate sector have increased.

(c)           Within the households’ savings, there has been a substitution away from physical to financial assets, with the share of former declining by over 10 percentage points.



(d)   The pattern of household’s financial savings was significantly different in 2016-17 vis-à-vis the preceding 5 years. While the overall financial savings of the households registered an increase of over 20 per cent in 2016-17, (significantly higher than the growth witnessed in any of the preceding 5 years), there was a decline in the savings in the form of currency by over 250 per cent (of about Rs. 5 lakh crore). This decline primarily owed to the withdrawal of high denomination currency notes in November 2016 and partial remonetisation by end March 2017.

(e)          There was a significant decline in the proportion of deployment of financial savings in bank deposits and life insurance funds and an increase in share of currency, provident and pension funds, claims on government (primarily in small savings) in 2015-16. Savings held in shares and debentures more than doubled, and within this category, mutual funds segment increased by 126 per cent in 2015-16 over the previous year.




...to continue tomorrow

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