"In the carriages of
the past you can't go anywhere."
—Maxim Gorky (Russian,
1868-1936)
Word for the day
Aesopian (adj)
Conveying meaning by hint,
euphemism, innuendo, or the like.
Malice towards none
Imagine living in a world
without Google!
Trust me you will find no
Aadhar there.
First random thought this morning
As a matter of practice, on quarterly basis a large number of
publically traded companies provide guidance to public about their future performance.
Regardless of the fact that the guidance so provided is often laced with
appropriate disclaimers and caution statements, the market participants place
material reliance on such guidance. Not only average household investors but
senior analysts and tend to base their decisions on such guidance.
Unfortunately, the management of companies are not accountable to
anyone, if their guidance is unthoughtful, misleading or mischievous. This
liberty to guide without accountability should be unacceptable.
Household savings - the changing paradigm
I have been frequently travelling to the state of Uttar Pradesh
(UP) for past few decades. The state with more than 210million residents, is
critical to Indian politics and economics. If UP was an independent country it
would be the fifth most populous country in the world, behind China, India, USA
and Indonesia.
In past two decades especially, during every trip to the states, I
have experienced many changes. Though there are many things that have remained
the same over many decades.
Last week while driving to Lucknow from Delhi via NH24, I observed
few changes that are worth taking a note.
Anyone who has travelled to western UP during winter months must
have experienced huge traffic jams caused by bullock carts overloaded with
sugar cane.
Many a times driving on even national highways was a nightmare as
the cane farmers would overload the carts with their produce for taking it to
sugar mills, mostly at late night or early morning hours when roads are
engulfed by dense fog on most nights.
These carts would block the roads, would travel the wrong way, and
would slow down the traffic considerably causing long traffic jams.
This year, I did not witness even a single bullock cart carrying
cane. All the cane was being transported by trolleys pulled by tractors. The
things that had not changed a bit was overloading the career ominously, totally
disregarding the safety of other road users, driving on the wrong side, slowing
the traffic and preposterously telling everyone to go to hell if you do not
like it this way.
As an investor, the immediate thought that came to my mind that
the cane farmers in UP have truly been paid their arrears, and tractors
companies with good market share in western UP must be doing extremely well.
But the seeker in me wanted to know more. So I took detour,
leaving the highway and passing through some villages.
Speaking to people, I realized that cane farmers have had two good
seasons, and the current season is also good. Crop is good and price is also
good. While the potato farmers are distressed and wheat farmers are worried
about a low yielding crop due to early rise in temperature.
One thing that is more worrisome is the change in economic behavior. None
of the farmers seemed thinking about saving the bounty for bad times. Expensive
motorbikes, SUVs, smart phones, designer clothes, cosmetics have become
essential. Even holidays have appeared on "to do" lists. But health
checkups, training, skill development, higher education appear nowhere in the
priority lists. None of the 25odd farmers I spoke to, had given any thought to
a lateral career movement for their kids....to continue
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