"If I were to do a
foundation, it would be to promote solar energy. And I'm worried about drilling
for oil. I think it is harming the earth, 'cos it drains the layer of oil under
the surface, and that could be causing earthquakes. It's like we're giving the
earth arthritis. I don't know if that sounds crazy."
—Debbie Harry (American,
1945-)
Word for the day
Remontant (adj)
Blooming more than once in a
season.
Malice towards none
Why
Priyanka Gandhi Vadra should be a matter of debate - within and outside
Congress?
First random thought this morning
A serious socio-economic reform would be to "Nationalize the
rituals of birth, marriage and death."
Given that a large part of the distress amongst lower
socio-economic strata could be traced to the obligatory spending on these
rituals, government taking over these rituals would rid them of serious
financial burden. On the side, it might end the profligacy of well-off who
splurge mindless on these rituals, for the sake of vanity.
Readers' thoughts are welcome on this subject. Would write in
detail soon.
After all, being fearful is not a bad idea - 2
The unconventional methods used by the influential global central
bankers since 2008, have definitely complicated the context of financial
markets.
As I have stated earlier also, for a simpleton like me who:
(a) does not understand the
economics beyond its first lesson which says all economic decisions involve a
trade off and price of things having economic value is determined by their
demand and supply at that given point in time;
(b) does not know how to
simulate data on Microsoft Excel Sheet to suit my likings;
(c) likes to discover
investment themes in streets, markets and fields; and
(d) seriously believes that
numbers invariably follow the good story
The more I try to comprehend how the movement in global currencies
and bond yields would impact my investment portfolio which is largely India
centric, the more I feel disillusioned.
Unfortunately, the current state of affair is that movements in
global currencies and bond yields have become an important factor to analyze in
construction and maintenance of an investment portfolio - regardless of country
you live in and asset class you invest in. From precious metals to agro
commodities, from real estate to bank deposits and from equities to bonds, the
prices and return on all asset classes across world is being impacted.
An overwhelmingly large majority of global commentators, market
analysts, economic thinkers and money managers are portending a bloody end to
the current mess.
As I said yesterday, history is providing no guidance at all in
the present context; since noting today is like anything in the history.
In four decades since 1976, investment grade bonds have provided
7.47% CAGR with very little volatility. S&P500 has also returned over 3%
CAGR in this period, though with a little higher volatility as compared to
bonds.
The reputable Bill Gross of Janus capital, in his recent
communication quoted from GMO’s Ben Inker communication to their clients
"while it is obvious that a 10-year Treasury at 1.85% held for 10 years
will return pretty close to 1.85%, it is not widely observed that the rate of
return of a dynamic “constant maturity strategy” maintaining a fixed duration
on a Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate portfolio now yielding 2.17%, will almost
assuredly return between 1.5% and 2.9% over the next 10 years, even if yields
double or drop to 0% at period’s end. The bond market’s 7.5% 40-year historical
return is just that – history. In order to duplicate that number, yields would
have to drop to (-)17%!"
Gold bulls are obviously enthusiastic. But perhaps they are
borrowing too much from history. .....to continue to Tuesday
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