A clarification
Since morning, I have received numerous mails
"accusing" me of over-simplifying things in relation to the political
changes taking place in European Union.
May I take this liberty to address all accusations
collectively & conclusively, and clarify as follows.
(a) I do firmly believe that UK referendum has the potential
to become a watershed event in the history of modern world. But I strongly
refuse to believe that it will push the global community back into the dark
ages. As I wrote earlier, in my view it is not a problem but part of the
solution.
(b) I have strong reasons to have an economic view that
diverges from that of the global investment legends like George Soros and Mark
Mobius. After all I have benefitted from not following them in past 10 years.
Despite extremely persuasive arguments - I did not believe in China story,
hyperinflation due to QE, weaker bonds, end of USD, commodity super-cycle, Grexit,
blah blah. I did not plunged into Indian equities immediately after PM Modi
moved to 7RCR, as advised by many of them.
Neither am I buying Gold now.
(c) Mumbai is perhaps one of the most filthy and unsafe city
in the world. Despite Shiv Sena's anti immigrant movement, obscene realty
prices, higher taxes, dismal security apparatus despite many terror attacks,
floods, poor infrastructure and abundant filth - it has not diminished a bit in
its status as India's financial capital in past many decades. I do not
understand why would London do? Singapore & Dubai have been there for
decades!
It is not over-simplification. It is in fact little
complicated.
Ask a sociologist and anthropologist. They will tell you how
a "CITY" takes shape and how people grow their roots in these cities.
Politics and terror can't uproot them. It takes Mother Nature's strong
intervention to end the importance of Rome, Agra/Sikri, etc.
(d) In my view, the magnitude of transformation must be
measured from a single criteria - how many "lives" it does impact
seriously?
History suggests - any event that impacts relatively smaller
number of "lives" usually does not have transformative impact on the
global order. I believe financial and political crises should also be evaluated
by this criteria only. It is too early to assess how many "Lives" UK
divorce from EU will impact seriously. If it does as expected impact millions
of refugees and immigrants, it will qualify to be a transformative event having
lasting impact on the global order - not necessarily negative.
I would also like to mention that I am NOT LIKING Mr.
Market's complete disdain for the UK "Leave" vote. An apology may be
in order. Sooner the better
No comments:
Post a Comment