Monday, July 4, 2016

Nifty determines to move up as greed makes a comeback

Thought for the day
"You always fall for the rascal or the guy who's got a little bit of the devil in him. You can't help it."
Debbie Harry, (American, 1945-)
Word for the day
Towser (n)
A big dog.
Malice towards none
Are you looking to invest in gold @$1340/oz having refused to buy it at US$1000/oz a few months ago?
First random thought this morning
There is an urgent need to democratize the politics in our country. Though our constitution mandates a democratic government, most politicians behave like feudal lords.
Elected representatives wants to be credited, praised and acknowledged for getting drains cleaned, getting pavements cleared, covering manholes, planting trees (all at people's expense). Congress VP never misses a chance to remind people that he "gave" them food (Food Security), education (RTE), employment (MNREGA), etc. otherwise all Indian were doomed to die hungry, illiterate and unemployed!

Nifty determines to move up as greed makes a comeback

Brushing aside the two "Exits" and the derivative "Expiry", Nifty managed to close at the upper end of its range (7930-8330) of past five weeks. This happened despite lower institutional activity and overall volumes.
The most striking feature of market in past 10 trading session is the return of "Greed" trade with a vengeance. Much deeper and enthusiastic retail participation is evident from the sharp outperformance of mid and small cap stocks.
Instinctively I know that this is usually pre-cursor to a meaningful correction.
Nonetheless, after having weathered significant intraday volatility, that helped correcting many overbought indicators, Nifty looks good for rise to 8560 level in next few weeks. Good support on the downside exists at 8065 level.
The target on Bank Nifty would be 18600 with a strong base around 17375.
Though the most of the activity shall be seen in the broader market, a cautious trade with regular profit taking and strict stop loss would be in order.
 
 

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