"It's amazing to me to
see how bands evolve and how they take all their influences and come up with
their own sound."
—Debbie Harry (American,
1945-)
Word for the day
Transmogrify (v)
To change in appearance or
form, especially strangely or grotesquely; transform.
Malice towards none
What's reason for Jayant
Sinha's transfer from Finance to Civil Aviation:
(a) over-exposure to media;
(b) his father's criticizing PM;
(c) poor performance;
(d) needed at Civil Aviation as new policy gets
implemented;
(e) All of the above;
(f) None of the above
First random thought this morning
Anil Madhav Dave is appointed new Environment Minister of the
country. Unlike Mr. Javdekar, Mr. Dave brings baggage to the ministry. He has
been a green activist, closely associated with river conservation. Like Mr.
Javdekar he is also an RSS parachrak, but unlike his predecessor, Mr. Dave
proudly proclaim his allegiance publically.
I guess, industry might experience some conflicts in the Green
Ministry in coming months.
After all, being fearful is not a bad idea
Wonder why would someone buy a 30year bond with negative yield to
maturity (YTM), implying that after 30years he expects to receive less money in
nominal terms than he is investing today. As per various estimates globally
over US$30trn worth of global bonds are trading at negative YTM on nominal
basis. Besides an overwhelmingly large portion of ~US$225trn global debt is
trading at close to 1% YTM (meaning negative real returns).
There could be several reasons for someone to invest in a negative
YTM security. For example, if one—
(a) Expects inflation to
stay negative for a long period of time, thus enhancing the value of money; or
(b) Does not have enough
space at home to keep currency or his/her home is not safe for keeping his
money; or
(c) Does not have faith in
present days currencies and believes that the redemption will occur in a
different & stronger currency; or
(d) Does not expect any
debasement of currency in which the bonds are denominated; or
(d) Believes that a bigger
fool is waiting outside his door, ready to buy the bonds at even higher price
than what he is paying. (This is my favorite reason!)
Whatever the reason, one thing is certain that this is an
anomalous situation that cannot sustain for long; although as someone said -
"irrationalities may last longer than expected".
As a tiny investor concerned mostly with the investments in INR
assets, I have little reason to be afraid.
·
I still get one of the best available nominal
yields globally on my debt portfolio.
·
Thanks to the inflation hawk as RBI governor, my
real yield is also positive.
·
My home currency (INR) is stable, and has in
fact appreciated against a host of currencies.
·
My home economy is being widely touted as an
oasis in the growth starved world.
·
I have reason to believe that my government may
default on its obligations. (In fact India is one of the handful of countries
which have not seen any sovereign defaults in the recorded history. All major
countries, including USA, UK, Russia, etc. have experienced sovereign defaults
at some point in time history.)
But the fact is that most of us, including myself, are scared.
Most of this fear is emanating from the uncertainty and helplessness, since the
conditions are unprecedented and the history books are not providing any
pertinent guidance......to continue
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