"If we were to wipe out
insects alone on this planet, the rest of life and humanity with it would
mostly disappear from the land. Within a few months."
—E. O. Wilson (American,
1929)
Word for the day
Villatic (adj)
Of or relating to the
country or to a farm; rural.
Malice towards none
Is CBFC social police or a
constitutional institution?
If it is constitutional -
why it does not appear to respect the "Right of Equality" by treating
male nudity differently from female nudity?
If it is social police - do
we really need it?
First random thought this morning
The media circles are abuzz with the juicy rumors of 2017
presidential elections. With BJP in poll position, normally it should be a
"No contest". However, there could be an intense battle within BJP
over choice of an "appropriate" candidate for the top post.
As per media reports, BJP is considering some RSS ideologue for
the post. If this happens, it will might be another reason to consolidate the
opposition and add more decibel to the "BJP vs. Rest" pitch.
Gold is not the endgame
The socio-economic disparities are rising in the developed world
at a pace unprecedented in the economic history. The situation in my view is
likely to materially worsen in coming years.
Inarguably, the so-called unconventional monetary policies
followed by the central bankers own the primary responsibility for this
phenomenon.
With an overwhelming US$15-17trillion worth of bonds, many of
which are 10-30year maturity, are yielding negative return at this point in
time. Many more promise to return no income to the holders.
Poor savers and pensioners who mainly rely on their savings for
their livelihood are stressed like never before.
Large economies like Japan and EU have mostly failed in their
vigorous efforts raising inflationary expectations in their respective
economies. There is therefore little incentive to invest in these economies.
The employment opportunities are therefore not likely to rise in any
sustainable manner.
I sincerely believe that at this juncture no one appears to have
any clue how to get out of this vicious cycle. So, we are likely to see many
trial and errors, including from US Federal Reserve. The traders in financial
markets therefore need not unduly worry about any move (e.g., a Fed hike in
July) or absence of a move (e.g., BoJ staying put yesterday). Any adverse
movement in the asset prices due to such trial and error would restored shortly
through a prompt reversal or neutralizing effort.
The investors may however need to plan their strategy carefully.
Though the endgame need not be built in the strategy for next 3-5years; a
longer term strategy would require the end game to be factored.
There is no dearth of experts who have written about the endgame
of the current monetary policy practices. Most of them suffer from historical
hindsight and extrapolation of current trends.
Being no expert of global economics and monetary system, I can
afford to conveniently break from the empirical experience and think freely. I
believe the endgame will be mark a watershed in global economic history - among
other things, many systems will become redundant; many currencies will cease to
exist; and monstrous debts will be written off the books.
It is difficult to fathom that this task can be achieved under the
current democratic system. Communism will therefore make a grand entry sometime
in next two decades, in my view.
A large number of analysts have forecasted that gold will be a
preferred currency of the world amidst all this chaos. I beg to disagree.
In my view, the factors (scarcity, indestructibility, religious
sanctity, universal acceptability, and feudal ownership etc.) that made gold a
preferred currency during many crises in the global history would have become
redundant in two decades. It will therefore be something new and contemporary
that will become global reserve currency....to continue on Tuesday.
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