"Change will come
slowly, across generations, because old beliefs die hard even when demonstrably
false."
—E. O. Wilson (American,
1929)
Word for the day
Comity (n)
Mutual courtesy; civility.
Malice towards none
If the Orlando event had
happened in India, some parties would have alleged that BJP is in cahoots with
the perpetrator for polarizing voters on communal lines.
First random thought this morning
Traditionally opposition leaders have been criticizing the
incumbent government for failure on socio-economic fronts. The current scenario
is no different. Opposition leaders across parties have criticized the Modi
government for failing on various fronts, especially employment and inflation.
This is mostly rhetoric.
However, the Congress VP, Shri Rahul Gandhi went a step further
and claimed that, if voters elect a Congress government in 2017 assembly
elections, he would solve the Punjab drug abuse problem within a month.
To me its sheer blackmailing the citizens, and amounts to
sedition.
Brexit & Me - 2
The impact analysis of binary outcome of 23rd June UK referendum
is mostly focused around five factors - (1) Impact on GBP & EUR; (2) Impact
on UK economy especially in terms of foreign flows, terms of trade, demand,
etc; (3) Status of London as an international financial centre; (4)
Sustainability of EU post UK exit; and (5) Impact on immigration of workers as
the fresh wave of nationalism hits the Europe and elsewhere.
The analysis I have seen so far, concludes that in the event of a
"Leave" vote — UK economy will be seriously impacted (GDP contraction
of 2-7% over next decade); both GBP and EUR will depreciate dramatically
against major currencies (gold & USD assets will soar); London may lose its
pride as international finance center; fund flows from EU nations, Russia and
China to UK will diminish materially; migration of workers across EU and UK will
be restricted hampering the economic activity; both UK and EU will weaken in
strategic importance. A "Leave" vote therefore prima facie
appears a lose-lose situation for both EU and UK.
However, in the event of a "Remain" vote, where UK will
be able to re-negotiate certain terms of engagement with EU, a reverse effect
(though not as dramatic) is anticipated. Both UK and EU will emerge as gainer
in this case.
Without questioning the merits of assumptions made in the
consensus impact analysis, I fail to understand why Britons will vote to
"Leave".
But democracy is known to surprise people. The democratic election
processes world over have produced verdicts which were considered irrational
and beyond comprehension at that point in time. However, in hindsight, very few
of these decisions have proved to be disastrous, so as to say.
As per the latest opinion polls the Britons are fairly evenly
split. "The UK Independence Party, which won the last European elections,
and received nearly four million votes - 13% of those cast - in May's general
election, campaigns for Britain's exit from the EU. About half of Conservative
MPs, including five cabinet ministers, several Labour MPs and the DUP are also
in favour of leaving."
Those in favor of "Leave" believe "Britain is being
held back by the EU, which they say imposes too many rules on business and
charges billions of pounds a year in membership fees for little in return. They
also want Britain to take back full control of its borders and reduce the
number of people coming here to live and/or work. One of the main principles of
EU membership is "free movement", which means you don't need to get a
visa to go and live in another EU country. They also object to the idea of
"ever closer union" and what they see as moves towards the creation
of a "United States of Europe"." (From BBC FAQ on Brexit. See
here for more details)
Those who favor a "Remain" vote feel that Britain should
assume a more active role in EU by leading it, rather than withdrawing from it
under the undue influence of false Elizabethan notions glories.
According to the supporters of "Remain" vote—
"The supposed choice — Europe or the world — is still posed.
Today’s Brexiters hanker after Elizabethan glories, reimagining
Britain as the footloose privateer leaving Europe behind to make its fortune in
far-flung lands. Ask them about trade with Europe and they talk about the deals
to be made instead with India or China, about revitalising the so-called
Anglosphere of the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, and about
refurbishing ties with the nations of the Commonwealth. Economics, they
believe, is nothing against such dreams.
The harsher reality, political and economic, has been heard during
the referendum campaign from US President Barack Obama and other friendly
nations. This is not an either/or choice between Europe and the world. Rather,
engagement in Europe amplifies Britain’s voice on the global stage; retreat
from its own continent would leave the nation in unsplendid isolation." (Click
here to Read more on FT)
Well, Britons will decide what they find appropriate and in their
best interest.
I am here more concerned with the anticipated volatility in the
markets ahead of the 23rd June poll. I need to decide whether I need to hedge
my portfolio against a "Leave" vote; or keep my cheque book ready for
a good buying opportunity.
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