"Always recognize that
human individuals are ends, and do not use them as means to your end."
—Immanuel Kant (German,
1724-1804)
Word for the day
Complaisant (adj)
Inclined or disposed to
please; obliging; agreeable or gracious;
Malice towards none
Whatever good has happened
in the country in past 2years seems to have been done by the government,
including a Kashmiri youth passing IAS exam and girls topping various exams!!!
Did poor citizens also
contribute something or its all superman Modi's magic?
First random thought this morning
A large number of foreign investors have issued veiled threats of
market destabilization if Gov. Rajan is not given a second term. Many local
business and financial luminaries have also echoed their sentiments.
This is unprecedented and unacceptable.
This presumes that (a) Rajan is inarguably the best and the
government cannot find a better substitute; (b) what Rajan did was the best one
could have done under the circumstances; and (c) Rajan would want to continue
to be at the helm of RBI till eternity!
Land of five rivers, drying up
Last week I travelled through the states of Punjab and Himachal
Pradesh. The objective was to assess the political and economic situation in
these states, especially in view of the Punjab assembly elections due early
next year.
Though Punjab elections are not as critical as Uttar Pradesh
election (which will be held simultaneously with Punjab & Uttrakhand), they
are evoking keen interest amongst observers.
The observers shall be looking for three key points in these
elections, viz., (a) whether BJP-SAD alliance in the State stays or it ends
like the BJP-SS alliance did in Maharashtra; (b) whether Congress party could
resurrect itself in the State overcoming the bitter infighting; and (c) whether
AAP could sustain or improve upon the gains made in the last Lok Sabha
elections.
The primary election issues this time seems to be (i) alleged
blatant corruption in the Badal government; and (ii) rising cases of drug
abuse.
My key observations during four days of travelling through Punjab
and talking to many people from across socio-economic spectrum of the State,
are as follows:
Economic conditions
(a) Both the farming and
MSME industrial segments of the State are deeply stressed. The industrial space
in the state is dominated by MSME units in textile, industrial components, and
agro processing sectors. Construction sector has been one of the key growth
& employment driver in past one decade.
Falling exports, labor
shortages, water shortages, poor capex cycle, poor liquidity, drying credit
lines, slowdown in construction sector and alleged pervasive corruption in the
government have added to the stress in farm sector. Labor shortages are driving
huge investment in farm automation.
(b) There is a perceptible
move towards cash crops from the traditional cereals. The trade in agri produce
is modernizing at satisfactory pace.
(c) There is perceptible
slowdown in repatriation of money from foreign shores, that has been a primary
source of investment in the State. The number of cases of reverse partition
(local family members sending money abroad to support the expatriate members;
and investment in business ventures abroad) are rising at a rather faster pace.
Though there is no impact on the enthusiasm of youth who want to immigrate.
(d) The ITeS sector is
growing fast and witnessing good investment. The current generation of youth is
now willing to join service. Traditionally Punjabi youth has always preferred
self employment or business as compared to working for someone else.
(e) The income
inequalities and concentration of wealth are perhaps rising much faster than
the national average.
(f) The Punjab villages
are perhaps most urbanized in the country. The scope for more investment in
this space is therefore limited.
(g) The demand for
services like health care & education is rising fast. Both sectors have
seen significant investment. But education is a major area of concern. Like all
other places, the difference between the public and private school education
standards is huge. This is having perpetuating effect on the socio-economic
disparities. Surprisingly, not many poor people were complaining about this.
(h) Sex-ratio is still very
poor, and all malaise attendant with this problem are present in full measure.
(i) Drug abuse has become
a worse menace than the terrorism in 1980s.
(j) The western fast food
like Pizza and Burgers have been fully localized to suit the local taste,
whereas the traditional food is diminishing just like the skills in local arts
& crafts.
Political situation
(i) The people are
certainly unhappy with the incumbent government. The government is popularly
believed to have fared poorly on socio-economic front. The allegation of
blatant corruption are part of the folklore.
(ii) Unfortunately,
Congress does not appear to be in a position to fully exploit the
dissatisfaction of the people with the incumbent government. There is bitter
infighting within the party. Though the Capt. is trying hard to strengthen his
position, he may not reach to the winning position in six months.
(iii) The vote bank of BJP -
RSS, Arya Samaji, Army background people, relatives of NRIs etc. is intact.
Whereas the communal Sikh vote bank of SAD appears divided. AAP has gained some
ground amongst traditional vote bank of communist party in the State - mostly
Dalit Sikhs and marginal farmers.
(iv) BJP will have upper
hand if it breaks its pre-poll alliance with SAD, like the way they did in
Maharashtra, and makes this contest Modi vs. Capt. AAP will certainly help BJP
in a four cornered contest, as it would eat into both Congress and communal
Sikh votes.
Though these are early days, I would still hazard a guess on the
likely outcome of the polls.
(a) If it's a four cornered
contest (BJP, SAD, Congress and AAP) - BJP may reach close to the majority mark
on its own.
(b) If it's a three
cornered contest (BJP-SAD, Congress and AAP) - BJP-SAD may still be the largest
combine, but short of the majority mark. Congress might succeed in forming the
government with the support of few AAP legislators.
(c) AAP as a party is not
strong in the State, but it has some good people on its side. 10-15 seats for
the Party are possible but not certain.
(d) Even if BJP breaks the
State level alliance with SAD, there may be no change in the central government
and SAD may continue to be its part.
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