Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Blind Men and the Elephant

"A good fighter usually knows, within a very few seconds, when a three-minute round is going to end."
— Jack Dempsey (American, 1895-1983)
Word for the day
Sniglet (n)
Any word coined for something that has no specific name.
Malice towards none
What's bigger loss for Tata Motors - Brexit or retirement of Messi?
First random thought this morning
Through drama of merger with and de-merger from Mukhtar Ansari's QED, SP has successfully established Akhilesh with clean image as undisputed and autonomous party leader in State. The uncles will drive from the back seat till election at least.
SP has apparently also beguiled Swami Prasad Maurya to materially weaken BSP.
BJP, still without a defined leader and confused agenda, needs to worry.

Blind Men and the Elephant

Referendums are usually conducted to find a definite binary answer, yes or no, without any conditionality attached, to a lingering debate.
A referendum aims to solve a problem through democratic process. The answer provided by it may not be to the liking of all, but mostly it does settle the long drawn dispute.
To the contrary, UK referendum on membership of EU (popularly referred as Brexit) has raised many more questions, and answered none. It takes us nowhere.
Since the results of the Brexit referendum became clear last Friday morning, almost everyone is seen raising a variety of questions, for example—
·         Will other jurisdictions in EU choose to follow UK out of the Union, thus resulting in premature termination of the Project Europe?
·         Will UK itself break-up post this referendum, given a completely fragmented verdict by English and Scot & Irish people?
·         Will Germany emerge weaker or stronger post this referendum, given that ex-UK, it will have overwhelming dominance over the EU policy making?
·         Will GBP emerge stronger as safe haven, like CHF and JPY, at the expense of EUR, or it will lose its place in the global trade?
·         Will London continue to remain the global financial capital?
·         Will we see a civil war like condition in UK, as immigrants (mostly youth); non-whites and non-Christians may not have voted for the Exit; but they stand to suffer most from the economic mess that may pursue the Brexit?
·         Will Brexit vote bring back the specter of fascism in Europe?
·         Will Brexit vote impact the politics in USA, giving an edge to the presumptive GoP presidential candidate Donald Trump?
·         Will Brexit push Europe, including UK, deeper into recession?
·         Will this lead to the abortion of globalization process that started with the fall of the Berlin Wall in late 1980s?
The worst, the referendum does not appear to have fully settled the issues at hand.
The overwhelming response (highest ever) to the online petition for a re-referendum suggests that the last word on the Brexit might have not been said as yet.
Many economics and market experts have expressed fear of apocalypse in the global economy as a consequence of UK exiting EU.
I find the commentary suffering from Blind Men and the Elephant syndrome. In some cases people are uttering some non-sense, so that they could someday tell the world - "See, I told ya'."....to continue tomorrow

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