Monday, June 13, 2016

Nifty: Some jitters ahead of keenly watched events

Thought for the day
"When you have seen one ant, one bird, one tree, you have not seen them all."
E. O. Wilson (American, 1929)
Word for the day
Slyboots (n)
An engagingly sly or mischievous person.
Malice towards none
After an intensive research of two years, I could find one good thing about Arvind Kejriwal - While all other parties use proxies for making nonsense, defamatory, unpleasant, and controversial statements, AK does it all himself.
First random thought this morning
I find controversy over the movie Udta Punjab, totally avoidable.
To the CBFC - expletives are inextricable part of the common conversation in Punjab; drugs are as common as Lassi; even Amir Khan did pee on the wall of historic Red Fort in PK.
To the film maker - the film serves no interest (artistic or public), as it shows a problem everyone concerned is fully aware of, and offers no worthy solution.

Nifty: Some jitters ahead of keenly watched events

This week, FOMC meet, and consequent movement in global currencies, commodities and equities might influence the trading pattern in Indian equities also. Besides, the Brexit poll scheduled for next shall also impact the sentiments.
Last week, Nifty failed at its strong immediate resistance level of 8330 and corrected a bit. The fall in Nifty however lacked any conviction and was driven more by caution.
With this correction though the short term indicators have turned little bearish, suggesting that the correction may extend little further, there is no reflection of any weakness on the medium and long term charts. To the contrary, this correction is taking some froth out leading to strengthening of medium term outlook.
My trading strategy under the circumstances would be as follows:
(a)   Any fall (sharp or shallow) in the market is a buying opportunity from medium term perspective.
(b)   Nifty continues to face resistance at 8330 level and has a strong near term support in 7860-7930 range. Any fall below 7750 level will be an opportunity to create aggressive leveraged long positions.
(c)    On Bank Nifty 18000 is a strong near term resistance. The near term support exists in 17150-17300 range but meaningful support is only around 16800 level. This suggests that the correction will essentially be led by banking stocks. I will consider aggressive leveraged long position in banking stocks around 16300 level.
(d) I continue to maintain August 2019 Nifty target of 13900 and view on cyclical Nifty bottom at 7490 level. Any fall below this is exceptional buying opportunity.
 
 

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