Thought for the day
"Sins cannot be undone, only
forgiven."
—Igor Stravinsky (Russian, 1882-1971)
Word for the day
Overslaugh (v)
To pass over or disregard (a person) by giving a promotion, position, etc., to another instead.
Malice towards none
The reaction of Congress leader over Raghuram Rajan's
decision to move on clearly shows that it has scant regard for institutions; It
prefers people over institutions.
First random thought this morning
In past RBI has had many illustrious governors who were well
respected by the government, businesses, investors, bankers and global financial
community. The outgoing governor Raghuram Rajan is just one of many and
certainly not the only one.
At this point in time, it is preposterous to assume that the new
appointee will be less competent than him.
If someone seeks my opinion I will vote for Urjit Patel, who I
find equally competent.
Nifty
votes for "Stay"
Despite higher somewhat higher volatility, Nifty ended the week
absolutely unchanged. Though momentum continued to be weak, the short term
overbought conditions have eased.
The Indian market participants appear to be firmly favoring a
"Stay" vote in Brexit pole scheduled this Thursday. No major selling
is anticipated on that count.
Today morning session may witness some exceptional volatility over
RBI governor issue, which in our view would totally irrational and short-lived.
My trading strategy under the circumstances would be as follows:
(a) Any fall (sharp or
shallow) in the market is a buying opportunity from medium term perspective.
(b) Nifty continues to face
resistance at 8330 level and has a strong near term support in 7860-7930 range.
Any fall below 7750 level will be an opportunity to create aggressive leveraged
long positions.
(c) On Bank Nifty 18000 is
a strong near term resistance. The near term support exists in 17150-17300
range but meaningful support is only around 16800 level. This suggests that the
correction will essentially be led by banking stocks. I will consider
aggressive leveraged long position in banking stocks around 16300 level.
(d) I continue to maintain
August 2019 Nifty target of 13900 and view on cyclical Nifty bottom at 7490
level. Any fall below this is exceptional buying opportunity.
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