Thought for the day
" Ideas are more powerful than guns. We would not let
our enemies have guns, why should we let them have ideas."
—Joseph Stalin (Georgian, 1879-1953)
Word for the day
Contretemps (n)
An inopportune
occurrence; an embarrassing mischance: He caused a minor contretemps by
knocking over his drink.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
A "Tea Seller", who also happens to be
"OBC" given charge of BJP in UP.
Is it a co-incidence, or some kind of cantrip.
First random thought this morning
The question is not whether Gov. Rajan is some three year late in
bringing QE to India, or he has done it deliberately late to maximize the
impact.
The question is how far he is willing to go the full distance like
ECB. A midway reversal will certainly be destructive.
In past six months commodity stocks have been best performer.
Stocks of companies from sectors such as metals, sugar, paper, tea, cement etc.
have all recorded huge gains.
Whereas, the leaders of past many years pharma sector has been the
worst performer.
Though, there has indubitably been some recovery in the prices of
the commodities from the cycle lows, it is difficult to say about the demand,
except in case of cement. Domestic steel sales have risen due to import
restrictions, but the consumption improvement is only marginal.
Considering that both the infrastructure and consumption sector
stocks have underperformed, intuitively cyclical commodity recovery stories
requires more evidence to justify.
Besides, there is no evidence from global markets either that
global economic conditions are improving in any material respect.
I am not jumping on to the commodity bandwagon, especially agri
commodities, where a normal monsoon could be a major dampener.
I am though interested in agri input and cement stocks.
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