"The death of one man
is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic."
—Joseph Stalin (Georgian,
1879-1953)
Word for the day
Ersatz (adj)
An artificial substance or
article used to replace something natural or genuine; a substitute.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
By sleeping in planes,
working round the clock, and frugal eating - PM is vindicating the stance of
CPM leaders that he is not PM but a RSS Pracharak.
But what's objectionable in
this?
First random thought this morning
Shankaracharya of Dwaraka-Sharda Peeth has attributed the drought
in Maharashtra to the worship of Shirdi Sai Baba by the state's people!
Is he implying that three Jyotirlings (Shiva), Lord Panduranga
(Vishnu) and Dev Shani, who are seated in the State, are watching the people
suffer and die just because some of them happen to be worshipping a noble man?
Someone please inform the Rev. Seer that Sai Baba worship in
Maharashtra started more than a century ago, and in this period the region has
emerged as one of the richest in the country.
I choose heart over head
In the past 10years I have tirelessly argued against the peak oil
theory; though my argument is more emotional than economic.
At a time when crude oil prices were flirting with US$150/bbl and
experts were forecasting US$200/bbl leading to a breakdown in global economy, I
wondered whether this fossil fuel has the potential to undo the progress in
human civilization made over past one century.
I have always believed in the invincibility of the human race. The
history of civilization suggests that human race has never accepted defeat even
from the forces of nature. We have not only survived all natural disasters,
endless wars, epidemics, deadly diseases, hunger, and extreme climatic
conditions, but have been successful in consistently improving the quality of
our life.
The crude oil therefore never appeared like a threat to me.
Regardless of the doomsayers predicting peak oil and consequent catastrophe in
global economy, I was always confident that we will find an alternative much
before the doomsday dawns on us.
Moreover, I never had confidence in the "unity" of the
global oil cartel. I was almost certain that on first sign of oversupply this
cartel will breakdown and there will be scramble amongst the cartel members to
sell their stock first.
It might be early to declare victory over the "peak oil
threat", but the evidence is increasing and strengthening by the minute.
Rising fuel efficiency, exponential increase in use of renewable (especially
solar), rise in shale reserves, aging demography, and likely decade of slower
growth in China, etc. all indicate towards slower petroleum demand growth.
A recent article in The Economist (see
here) highlighted the problems a persistently low crude prices could cause
on the Gulf States (GCC).
The first causality will likely be the consumption of luxury goods
& services, that have a huge market in the middle east. Lower social sector
spending and rise in taxation could follow almost immediately. Lower outward
investment, poor fiscal health of smaller members, higher unemployment etc. are
also easy to predict.
While it is easy to rise in civil unrest and economic distress, my
emotional sense tells me that, the doomsayers on this side of the fence may
also be wrong. I believe that a break in oil oligarchy and consequent economic
weakness in GCC states may lead to many significant positives in the global
economy.
For example, we may see some softening in religious tenets,
leading to more open globalized society and less support for terrorism in the
name of religion.
More eager to participate in the global economy at equal terms,
the GCC states may be more open and inviting. Given the attractive location in
the global trade routes and superb physical infrastructure, these countries
have the potential to become center of global trade.
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