Friday, April 8, 2016

Battlefield UP- II

"Men have become the tools of their tools."
—Henry David Thoreau (American, 1817-1862)
Word for the day
Vociferous (adj)
Crying out noisily; clamorous.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
Nitish Kumar has taken "Bihari vs, Bahari" to new heights.
He says - consumption of alcohol is bad for health and economy, therefore he is banning it in the state of Bihar.
However, the state will keep producing alcohol and export it to other states for consumption of non-biharis.
First random thought this morning
Happened to meet a 94yr old freedom fighter yesterday. He faced atrocities of British administration, served two jail terms totaling 32months.
In his recollection, he had never chanted "Bharat Mata ki Jai", during his nine years of fight for freedom. He does not recall any of his colleagues in freedom struggle chanting it either. "Vande Matram", Hindustan Zindabad, and "Jai Hind" were popular slogans. He even insisted that the term Bharat was normally used by big leaders and elite; commoner preferred Hindustan.


Battlefield UP- II

Though the market has perhaps learned to live with the lack of political consensus on vital economic issues, there still survives a hope of ruling NDA strengthening its position in the Rajya Sabha in next two years. The state assembly elections of UP, due in March 2017, are vital for this hope to sustain as the state sends maximum representatives to the upper house. Besides, the outcome of these elections will also set tone for the 2019 general elections. From this viewpoint it is pertinent for investors to keep a close watch on this critical election.
As I mentioned yesterday (see here), commensurate with the critical importance of the state election, the election campaign has already started, and it is going to be a long, intense, acrimonious, and arduous campaign.
From political viewpoint, the following characteristics of the campaign so far,  are noteworthy.
(a)   Unlike most other states of the union, the campaign in UP is still not clear about the primary contest. It is not easy to judge whether it is "Mulayam vs. Modi"; or "Akhilesh vs. Mayawati"; or "Mulayam vs. Mayawati"; or "Development vs. Secularism/Castism"; or "Hindu vs. Muslim"; or "Tolerance vs. Intolerance"; or something else.
       While the primary plot is not yet defined, some secondary plots are being discussed prominently, e.g., "Yogi Adityanath vs. Azam Khan"; Amit Shah vs. "Prashant Kishore"; etc.
(b)   BJP has once again failed to set the agenda for election. It will therefore be responding to the development agenda set by the ruling SP, or worse, the casteist agenda of the primary contender BSP.
       Remember in Bihar also, Nitish Kumar had set the development agenda, and BJP was left fighting the Lalu Yadav's secularism.
(c)    The incumbent Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav clearly holds the advantage. None of the opposition parties appear forcefully targeting him. They are aiming the patriarch Mulayam Singh or the fringe character Azam Khan. The blame for poor law and order conditions is also mostly shared by other members of the Yadav clan.
(d)   RSS and VHP are trying hard to rake up the issue of Ram temple. The issue however, does not resonate with the people of the state at all. Like the reservation quote of RSS chief during Bihar Election, it is more likely to work to the disadvantage of BJP.
(e)    The state unit of Congress is mostly dysfunctional. Save for a pre election alliance with BSP, it is highly unlikely that it will even get 10seats, i.e., despite PK.
The first round of campaign is therefore clearly going to the ruling SP. These are however early days. I promise to come back to my readers with more inputs later in the year.
 

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