Do it yourself

For the past two weeks my message inbox has been flooded with messages highlighting that recently “Hindenburg Omen Signal”, which preceded the 2008 and 2020 stock market crashes, has been triggered and a stock market collapse may be imminent. There are several other technical and strategy reports cautioning investors against an apparent bubble in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) related stocks. Hindenburg Omen Signal:  The Hindenburg omen is a technical indicator designed to signal the  increased likelihood  of a stock market crash. It compares the percentage of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows in stock prices to a preset reference percentage (typically 2.2%) to predict the increasing likelihood of a market crash. The indicator is said to be suitable for about 30 days out, though it's been a false alarm more often than not in the past decade. Four criteria must be met to signal a Hindenburg omen: ·           The daily num...

A consistent rise in global equity prices, not accompanied by a matching earnings growth, has raised concerns about the sustainability of current valuations. In particular, the tech sector valuations in US technology have raised alarms. Several reports have highlighted that the market conditions and investors’ sentiments bear a stark resemblance to the dotcom exuberance (1999-2000) period, and as such markets may have already crossed the fairness redline and moved over to the realm of bubble.  ​ ​ In this context, I would like to draw readers’ attention towards two particular reports that I find representative of the analysis advising caution. “Dotcom on Steroids” by GQG Partners. First report, titled “Dotcom on Steroids” has been published by GQG Partners, USA. This report draws parallels between the current AI-driven tech boom and the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s, warning of similar risks ahead. The report postulates- “Today's market, particularly in the tech sector, e...

Antimicrobial resistance becoming ominous Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is fast emerging as one of the most ominous health concerns at global level. As per the  World Health Organization  (WHO), “Antimicrobials – including antibiotics, antivirals, antifungals, and antiparasitic – are medicines used to prevent and treat infectious diseases in humans, animals and plants. Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) occurs when bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites no longer respond to antimicrobial medicines. As a result of drug resistance, antibiotics and other antimicrobial medicines become ineffective and infections become difficult or impossible to treat, increasing the risk of disease spread, severe illness, disability and death. AMR is a natural process that happens over time through genetic changes in pathogens. Its emergence and spread are accelerated by human activity, mainly the misuse and overuse of antimicrobials to treat, prevent or control infections in humans, animals and pla...

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US federal Reserve (Fed) obliged the market consensus by cutting its overnight borrowing rate by 25bps to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%. One member of FOMC voted against the cut, preferring to maintain the status quo. Noting the economic conditions, especially still elevated inflationary expectations and resilient growth, the Fed indicated that 2025 may see fewer cuts than the previously estimated number. “With today’s action, we have lowered our policy rate by a full percentage point from its peak, and our policy stance is now significantly less restrictive,” Chair Jerome Powell said at his post-meeting news conference. “We can therefore be more cautious as we consider further adjustments to our policy rate.” The FOMC raised its projection for full-year 2024 GDP growth to 2.5%, from 2% in September. However, in the following years, the FOMC officials expect GDP to slow down to its long-term projection of 1.8%. The committee lowered its...

The Fed, BoE, and BoJ rate decisions are out of the way now. The S&P500, bond yields, USD, JPY, Gold, and Bitcoin, etc. have already made their initial move. The market participants may now begin to focus on elections – state assembly elections in India and the US Presidential elections. Regardless of overwhelming evidence to suggest that these elections may not impact the markets beyond a few days, the narrative might keep the market participants busy and distracted in the next few weeks. I find many events, besides rate cuts and elections, that are occurring on the sidelines that need to be noted by the investors. Considered individually, these events may not look like triggering a meaningful move in global markets. However, if we take a collective cognizance of these events, the probability of global market shock would certainly rise by a few points. The following events, for example, have drawn my attention in the recent months. Central banks loading on gold Post the gl...

Ending the weeks of intense speculation, anticipation and debate last night, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve started the latest monetary easing cycle with a 50bps fund rate cut. The Fed fund rate range now stands at 4.75-5.00% This is the first Fed rate cut since March 2020 and has come after a fourteen months policy pause. No panic in the boardroom Unlike the previous two rate cycles that started with a rather aggressive 50bps rate cut – first October 2008 post the Lehman collapse and second March 2020 post Covid-19 break out – this cut is apparently not a panic cut. The Fed chairman sounded confident about growth and employment level. He emphasized that the central bank is not in a hurry to ease policy, as he sees no likelihood of an elevated downturn in the economy. He mentioned, “There’s nothing in the SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) that suggests the committee is in a rush to get this done.” The Chairman categorically advised the ma...

“Bear market” is perhaps one of the most prominent phrases being used on social media, in the context of global stock markets. Several of the major global indices are down over 10% from their recent high levels. Japan (Nikkei 225 -17%), US Tech (NASDAQ -12%), France (CAC40 -14%), China/Hong Kong (Hang Seng -14%), and South Korea (KOSPI -11%) are some of the most talked about markets on social media. The Indian indices have not fallen materially from their recent highs. The benchmark Nifty is barely down three odd percent from the highs it recorded last week. Obviously, in India, the household investors are not yet worrying about the possibilities of a bear market, as for them the sky is still bright blue with few scattered cumulus clouds. Nonetheless, this phrase is gaining frequency in the personal discussions. From my various interactions with the market participants, I gather that many of them may have a different, and often misplaced, understanding of the concept of bear market...

  Last year, while discussing this subject, I mentioned , “it is a debate that will continue for many more years and no one will remain unaffected by it. Almost everyone who transacts in money or is part of the global economic system will need to deal with it at some point in time.” I note that the debate is intensifying, widening, and deepening. Moreover, it is becoming more balanced with many conventional money managers, regulators, bankers, and administrators coming in support of digital currencies as an alternative to fiat currencies. A few days ago, Larry Fink, the Chief Executive Officer of BlackRock, one of the most influential financial firms globally, commented in a TV interview that under the current circumstances “Crypto will play a role as flight to quality”. He was reported to have said, “Bitcoin is a hedge against the devaluation of your currency”. This comment is in total contrast to his comments in 2017 when he had emphatically condemned the idea of cryptocurre...

य :  सर्वत्रानभिस्नेहस्तत्तत्प्राप्य   शुभाशुभम् ,   नाभिनन्दति   न   द्वेष्टि   तस्य   प्रज्ञा   प्रतिष्ठिता One who remains unattached under all conditions, and is neither delighted by good fortune nor dejected by tribulation, he is a sage with perfect knowledge. —Srimad Bhagawad Gita, Verse 57, Chapter 2 In the calendar year 2022, a multitude of battles were fought. These battles materially impacted the global markets and investors. Some of the important battles were — (i)    Russia-Ukraine conflict that polarized the global strategic powers, threatening to unwind the post USSR globalization of trade and commerce; (ii)   Central banks’ battle against the multi decade high inflation, that resulted from the colossal monetary easing and fiscal incentives to mitigate impact of the Covid pandemic, while keeping the economy from slipping into recession; (iii)  China’s battle against Coronavirus, that kept ...