Do it yourself

No panic in the boardroom

Unlike the previous two rate cycles that started with a rather aggressive 50bps rate cut – first October 2008 post the Lehman collapse and second March 2020 post Covid-19 break out – this cut is apparently not a panic cut.

The Fed chairman sounded confident about growth and employment level. He emphasized that the central bank is not in a hurry to ease policy, as he sees no likelihood of an elevated downturn in the economy. He mentioned, “There’s nothing in the SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) that suggests the committee is in a rush to get this done.”

The Chairman categorically advised the markets to not take this 50bps cut as “new pace”. He said, “we’re going to go carefully meeting by meeting, and make our decisions as we go”.

The decision to cut was however not unanimous. In a rare dissent, one member (Michelle Bowman) voted for a 25bps. This could be seen as yet another sign of “no panic” in the Fed board room.

Committed to price stability without pain in labor market

Announcing a victory over inflation, Mr. Powell announced, “The U.S. economy is in good shape. It is growing at a solid pace. Inflation is coming down.”

As per the latest economic data release, the US GDP expanded at 3% annual rate in 2Q2024 with 4.2% unemployment rate (considered near full employment), and inflation at 2.2% in August 2024.

Outlining the latest policy objectives, he commented, “We’re trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has come sometimes with disinflation”. Guiding the markets, he emphasized that investors should take the Fed’s 50bps rate cut as a sign of its “strong commitment” toward achieving that goal.

Neutral rate seen close to 3%

The FOMC members see cuts of 25bps each in November and December FOMC meetings; 100bps cut in 2025 and 25bps cut in 2026 – implying that the latest easing cycle may end with the Fed rate range of 2.75-3.00%.

The Fed Chairman also mentioned in the post FOMC press meet that the neutral rate is likely significantly higher than it was on the previous occasions.

Markets ended lower

Markets – equity, bonds and commodities – ended the day with marginal cuts post the Fed announcement; while the USD was marginally stronger. This could be an outcome of either (i) sell on news; or (ii) traders’ disbelief in what Fed says about the strength of the economy.

What now

In my view, this aggressive 50bps cut is more of a correction than an aberration. Perhaps the Fed realized that they are running slightly behind the curve and hence tried to catch up. I do not see it as a panic move and would not like to indulge in “there is more to it than what meets the eye” debate.

Unlike 2008, there is no corporate balance sheet crisis, no risk of global markets freezing, and unlike 2020 there is no shutdown necessitating fiscal and monetary profligacy. It is a normal rate cycle change in response to a normalizing economic cycle. Therefore, expecting a market reaction like 2008 (sharply down) or 2020 (sharply higher) may not be appropriate.

I feel the US markets will adjust to the new policy trajectory in a couple of weeks and move accordingly. The lower rates shall help arrest the decline in the US housing markets and consumer spending. The bond yields may come down and the hedge trade in gold may begin to unwind. The corporate discretionary spend may also normalize as the cost of borrowing eases. This could be a relief for the Indian IT services companies.

For India, I am not sure if the RBI will rush to cut in October meeting, but would not rule it out completely. Financials and commodities are two sectors that need to be watched closely, in my view.

In the next couple of months, the markets in India will be driven by the 2QFY25 earnings. Any disappointment could lead to a decent correction in the markets. For now, I do not see a need to make any change in my investment strategy. (More on this next week)

The major risk to the markets comes from geopolitics now. The situation in the Middle East is worsening by the hour. NATO and CRIK (China, Russia, Iran and North Korea) alliances are hardening their positions, both on trade and war, making the situation explosive. (More on this next week)