Do it yourself

The Indo-US relations have never been linear and secular like Indo-Russia (Indo-Soviet) relations. Moreover, the Indo-US relations have mostly been transactional and opportunistic; with very little connect on cultural and social level. Both countries have based their strategies on their respective abilities to exploit the available opportunities. In the past three decades, India has significantly gained from the shortages of highly skilled human resources in the US. We have also shared the gains (with other emerging economies) from the US strategy of relocating their manufacturing processes. The US has benefitted from selling technology, energy and defense equipment to India. Besides, India has been an attractive high growth potential opportunity for US capital. Evidently, the US administration now seeks to redefine this transactional relationship. The present strife in the Indo-US relations may therefore sustain much longer than what most of us would have expected a couple of mont...

The US administration has imposed a 25% penal tariff on the goods imported from India, with few exceptions. The reason cited for this penal action is continued import of crude oil from Russia by the Indian refiners, despite the US administration insistence that sales proceeds from such oil sales are being used to finance the Russian war on Ukraine. These tariffs are over and above the MFN tariffs prevalent prior to 7th August 2025, and 25% reciprocal imposed with effect from 07th August. Considering the exemption for several items that are critical for the US supply chains, e.g., mobile phones, certain metal items, pharma, semiconductors, energy etc., the effective tariff rates on Indian exports to the US are estimated to be ~33%. India has termed this penal action “unfair, unjustified, unreasonable”. The public stance of the Indian government is that buying Russian oil is critical for our energy security, and it is our prerogative to decide from where to buy.  Considering the curr...

Antimicrobial resistance becoming ominous Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is fast emerging as one of the most ominous health concerns at global level. As per the  World Health Organization  (WHO), “Antimicrobials – including antibiotics, antivirals, antifungals, and antiparasitic – are medicines used to prevent and treat infectious diseases in humans, animals and plants. Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) occurs when bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites no longer respond to antimicrobial medicines. As a result of drug resistance, antibiotics and other antimicrobial medicines become ineffective and infections become difficult or impossible to treat, increasing the risk of disease spread, severe illness, disability and death. AMR is a natural process that happens over time through genetic changes in pathogens. Its emergence and spread are accelerated by human activity, mainly the misuse and overuse of antimicrobials to treat, prevent or control infections in humans, animals and pla...

The global markets are shaken by the trade war initiated by the US by announcing arbitrary unilateral tariffs on all of its trade partners. Some large trade partners of the US, like China and EU, have reportedly threatened to join the war with full vigor, making the global market extremely jittery. The prices of most risky assets and commodities have corrected sharply due to fear of widespread economic repercussions resulting in a global recession or even a depression like condition. The benchmark indices in most developed countries have corrected 8% to 18% in the past one month. Commodities, especially metals and energy, have also seen 7%-15% cut. In my view, it may be a little early to assess the short-term impact of the latest events. Things are evolving fast and chances are that better sense would prevail and leaderships of the US and its trade partners would be able to prevent the current stalemate from becoming a game of ego between them; and arrive at a mutually agreed solut...

In the year 1689, British monarch William of Orange put steep tariffs on French wine. He wanted to encourage the British to drink their own booze - make and drink. It was not a great idea because without wine, Britain turned to the hard stuff - gin. So, for the next 50 years, England was in the grip of the so-called gin craze. And newspapers wrote about the surge in crime and death and unemployment. In the 18th century, Britain put trade restrictions and taxes on tea being shipped to the colonies. This eventually led to the Boston Tea Party, an iconic event in the American war for independence. In the 1800s, the Brits were importing a lot of tea from China, and they didn't like the trade deficit, so they started to export opium to China, which caused an opium epidemic in China. China put a tariff on opium and then banned it altogether. This led to the very bloody Sino-British Opium Wars. The Qing lost the war. This defeat is popularly believed to be the first step in the direction ...

 I find some of the recent analysis of US politics and its implications for financial and commodity markets, rather amusing. Most experts are presenting their prognosis of the future direction of asset prices (stocks, currencies, bonds, gold, oil, and other commodities) based on an upside down pyramid, with politicians and central banks as the primary basis of their assumptions. The overly simplistic analysis indicates that the new US government will have to find a balance between the cost of servicing monstrous public debt (interest rates) and growth. The growth will look healthy in 2021 as the poor base effect kicks in; and so will the inflation. This shall prompt the Fed to normalize the policy rate to bring benchmark 10yr yields from present 0.95% to pre Covid level of 2.5%. This rise in yields will make the servicing of burgeoning debt extremely difficult, if not impossible. The Fed will therefore be forced to check the benchmark yields below the pre Covid levels, say at 2%....