Vijay Kumar Gaba: Putin

Showing posts with label Putin. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 5, 2024

Cognitive dissonance- 4

Continuing from last week

The development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is still in the early stages. How many more job losses shall we witness in the coming years due to automation?

Last week, one of the popular viral videos on Indian social media was about the views of Mr. Rahul Gandhi, Lok Sabha MP, and Mr. K. Annamalai, Tamil Nadu State President of BJP, on the challenges of artificial intelligence (AI). In the video, Mr. Annamalai is seen eloquently explaining the challenges of AI to young students, while Mr. Gandhi is seen doing some whataboutery to hide his lack of proper understanding.

Discussing the matter with many people who chose to forward the video to me, I found that the key reason for their forwarding this video is to show Mr. Gandhi in a poor light and not bother about the challenges of AI. They deliberately chose to ignore that both Mr. Gandhi Mr. Annamalai may not be in a position to make policies, at least for the next five years; whereas Chief Ministers of the largest populated and most industrialized states in India, and even some of the top leadership of the country, may be equally lacking in understanding about the challenges of AI, as Mr. Gandhi. Many of these may even fail to spell Artificial Intelligence correctly. That ought to be an issue these people should be worrying about and discussing.

Until a few months ago, India’s IT minister rejected the threat of AI to jobs in India as “nonsense”. Recently he reluctantly acknowledged that “AI may result in automating some routine jobs but will also result in job creation in various data science, data curation, etc.” This is in total contrast to what the global IT leaders believe. For example, Elon Musk insists AI will get humans to a point where “no job is needed.”

In a recent famous interview with Trucker Carlson, President Vladimir Putin expressed fears that the developments in AI and genetics could potentially be a threat to humanity as a whole in the future. He said, “When there arises an understanding that the boundless and uncontrolled development of artificial intelligence or genetics or some other modern trends, cannot be stopped, that these researches will still exist just as it was impossible to hide gunpowder from humanity... when humanity feels a threat to itself, to humanity as a whole, then, it seems to me, there will come a period to negotiate at the inter-state level on how we will regulate this.”

Notwithstanding the state of denial by politicians, the campus recruitment by Indian IT companies in FY24 was just 75000, the lowest since 2002.

The Viking expansion during the 8^th – 11^th centuries reshaped the history, culture, and commerce of the world, by laying the ground for global colonial imperialism. It was aided by the first industrial revolution (1760-1820). The Second Industrial Revolution (1870-1914) redrew the contours of global strategic balance. The atomic attack on Hiroshima and Nagasaki (1945) established a new world order that was dominated by trade and commerce rather than military power. The development of Artificial Intelligence is a similar event in world history. It has the potential to redefine how people procreate, live, think, work, interact, transact, entertain, and die. AI could pose a much bigger threat than nuclear weapons; and could be a bigger service to humanity than any medicine or healthcare procedure.

Confining the discussion on AI to job losses would be beyond ridiculous.

On a lighter note, let me share a recent anecdote. An acquaintance (56-year-old) was running a 110-seater call center in Delhi for 24yrs. He had to shut the operations as his major clients automated their processes. He has converted the facility into a stock market jobbing facility by retraining all 110 operators. He is making 2x more money than the best years of call center business. Employees are also taking home 25-50% more. He told me, “Let Nvidia and Musk do whatever. We will make money trading their stocks. If we cannot compete with Nvidia, and Microsoft, we will own them!”

The point is that unemployment due to AI is a worry only for those who refuse to adapt, retrain, and reskill. For others AI is a major opportunity to move to higher orbits. The real damage due to AI could happen in social, personal, and emotional spheres.

Tuesday, February 13, 2024

My takeaway from Putin’s interview

Recently, an interview (watch here or read here) with Russian President Vladimir Putin has been trending in the media worldwide. In this two-hour seventeen minute long interview, President Putin touched upon many important issues concerning global economics and geopolitics. Experts from the world over are analyzing the interview from multiple angles, e.g., strategic, political, geopolitics, economics, etc. Most analysis I have come across is deeply biased. The starting point of most comments is the trustworthiness of President Putin. Most Western analysts seem to be rejecting Putin’s assertions as mere propaganda; while the analysts from Eastern and Southern analysts are using the contents of the interview to justify their opinions about the US agencies (deep state) and NATO.

In India, pro-establishment media and experts have mostly refrained from commenting on the interview; whereas the critics of the establishment have used this opportunity to emphasize that President Putin has answered many tough questions while Prime Minister Modi chooses not to answer media questions. I have not seen much discussion in Indian media on the assertions made by President Putin.

As a tiny fish in the pond, I am incapable of making any intelligent comments on matters of global or even national importance. Nonetheless, I found the following three things in the interview that interested me as a small investor.

· “China's economy has become the first economy in the world in purchasing power parity; in terms of volume, it overtook the US a long time ago. The USA comes second, then India - one and a half billion people, and then Japan, with Russia in the fifth place.”

This is the only mention of India in this 2:17:19 hrs. interview. Indonesia got much more prominent mentions. China was repeatedly mentioned as a formidable global power. The recent trade trends are suggesting that near-shoring, friend-shoring, and China-proxy-shoring are emerging as more popular trends. Indonesia, Mexico, Vietnam, etc. are emerging as much stronger gainers of the China+1 strategy as compared to India.

· President Putin made it clear, in no uncertain terms, that the era of global peace that prevailed particularly in the post-Cold War period is mostly over. We are entering an era of mutual mistrust; frequent disruptions; persistent and potent threats of a larger war; and redistribution of global power.

This implies that (i) defense spending will increase for most nations; (ii) given the current state of the stretched fiscal position of most developed nations, the collateral damage of higher defense spending will be humanitarian aid; (iii) Rising mistrust may also result in tightly closed borders, adversely impacting immigration; (iv) Volatility in markets will rise materially; and (v) USD will face persistent pressures.

It appears too early for India to claim self-reliance in defense production. It is also early to anticipate that India could become the fulcrum of any major global alliance in the next few years. This means we could face serious trade and foreign policy challenges soon. The recent performance of the government in this regard is not very inspiring.

· President Putin hinted that Artificial Intelligence (AI) needs to be regulated and there must be a global understanding on this subject.

Failure to reach a wider understanding may pose a similar (if not greater) risk to the global peace and stability as the stockpile of nuclear weapons did in 20^th century. Misuse of AI could be devastating. The US and China are miles ahead of India in the development and deployment of AI in most areas, especially defense technology.

The implications for my investment strategy are as follows:

· The sentiment of nationalism apart, for small investors like me it may not make much sense to place significant bets on the China+1 theme. To global investors markets like Indonesia and Mexico may offer better opportunities.

· We should embrace higher volatility. The post global financial crisis (GFC) era of low volatility may be over in the next few quarters.

· Overstretched fiscal positions and the specter of war may keep rates elevated for longer than presently anticipated, even if China accelerates the export of deflation. The cost of global capital could rise for Indian entrepreneurs.

· It may not be a great idea to buy USD-denominated assets for small investors.

· Defense production and AI will remain relevant themes for many years. But buying these at any price may not be a good idea. (more on this tomorrow.

Thursday, November 30, 2023

Conquering the guilt and normalizing

Last year, the former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated while he was addressing a public meeting. This is perhaps the first of its kind of act of violence since assassination of Inejirō Asanuma, the then Chairman of the Japan Socialist Party, in 1960. The visuals of Abe’s assassination may have shattered the image of Japan, most people would be carrying in their mind, viz., the image of most courteous people showing remarkable patience and calmness in their public behavior.

The post WW2 generation had only witnessed Japanese people who were extra polite, patient, courteous, and cooperative. These Japanese were very different from the pre-WW2 Japanese, who took pride in their martial and imperialistic traditions. Political assassinations were commonplace. The Japanese Army was considered one of the most brutal forces. The imperialist Japanese occupied parts of Russia, China, and Korea; plundered their wealth, and enslaved their women. The 1945 nuclear attack on Nagasaki and Hiroshima perhaps overwhelmed the Japanese society, burdening it with the guilt of being one of the main characters in the two disastrous world wars and losing its pride to the allied forces led by the US and Russia.

In fact, this is not only in Japan. After decimation of the manifest fascist forces (e.g., Germany, Japan and Italy) and imperialistic forces like Great Britain and Austro-Hungarian empire post WWII, the world has been a rather peaceful place as compared to the preceding 2000yrs. The conflicts post WWII have mostly been contained. Even during the height of the cold war between NATO and Warsaw Pact countries, and shenanigans of star-wars, there had never been a threat of escalation to the scale of a larger World War.

However, if we correlate some of the events and trends in the past couple of years, the picture that would emerge is not very comforting. For example, consider the following events and trends:

· Assassination of Shinzo Abe.

· Numerous acts of violence across USA and Europe, apparently perpetrated by random people who are not radicalized.

· Blatant violation of international laws by Russia in invading Ukraine, and botched attempts of NATO allies to internationalize the issue (contrary to the containment during earlier Crimea invasion).

· Internationalization of recent hostilities between Israel and Hamas.

· China is aggressively threatening its neighbors’ territorial and economic integrity.

· USA handing over Afghanistan to Taliban.

· Hyper nationalist right aligned leaders/parties winning elections in Italy, Argentina, Netherlands; while hardline leftists won elections (re-elections) in many jurisdictions, e.g., Germany, France, Australia, Chile, Mexico, Bolvia, Brazil, Peru, Honduras, and Columbia, etc. Both the Chinese premier Xi Jinping and Russian premier Vladimir Putin are firmly entrenched in respective offices for as long as they wish, and actively working to polarize the world.

· Reliance of population on governments for meeting basic needs rising exponentially along with the rise in the financial and fiscal vulnerabilities across the globe.

· Frequency of mass public protests rising in various jurisdictions.

· Tendency of governments to overregulate and over govern increasing across jurisdictions.

Besides, the commodity producing emerging economies which felt that they have been at the mercy of the financialized western world due to overwhelming dominance of USD on global trade, have been grouping (expansion of BRICS, BRI of China, etc.) to be in a position to command terms of trade.

I get a sense that the world is now in the last phase of erasing the guilt of the two world wars. In the next two decades, the real threat humanity faces is the threat of the human race returning to its normal self – unabashedly intolerant, violent, greedy, imperialist, as they were mostly in the pre-WW2 era, ending the era of prolonged peace since 1945.

The recent Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine episodes have already demonstrated that territorial occupation is becoming acceptable, just like 19^th century. It is common to hear about imminent alteration of status quo in Taiwan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir. Blatant defense of merciless killing of innocent children and women in Gaza, acceptance of suppression of women by Taliban in Afghanistan, and killing of Uighur Muslims in China indicate the change in global thinking. Regrouping of Arabs with Russia and China alliance against the interest of the western world is also a pointer to the potential shape global order might be taking in next couple of decades.

Where does India stand in this transition of global order and what small investors like me should be doing under these circumstances?

Will share my thoughts on this in the coming weeks.

Thursday, October 19, 2023

Winds of change

In the past 6 years, several significant events have occurred that would shape the new global order in the next decade or two. I would particularly like to mention the following ten events that in my view could potentially prove to be transformative for the global order:

1. Incorporation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) into the Constitution of the Chinese Communist Party. (2017)

2. Abolition of time limits, allowing Xi Jinping to remain General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and chairman of the Central Military Commission for life. (2018) (After winning an overwhelming majority in the 2020 elections, Russian President Vladimir Putin is also eligible to stay in office until 2036.)

3. The Exit of the UK from the common European market (the EU) (2017-2020); and the elevation of the first non-white person (Rishi Sunak) to the office of Prime Minister of the UK in 2022.

4. The beginning of the latest round of trade war between the US and China. (2018)

5. The tariff war between the EU and US. (2018)

6. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, allegedly from a laboratory in Wuhan province of China, and consequent breakdown of global supply chains. (2020)

7. Exit of the US forces from Afghanistan, handing over the regime to the Taliban (2021)

8. Invasion of Ukraine by Russia and subsequent economic sanctions on Russia. (2022)

9. Signing of a strategic partnership agreement between China and Saudi Arabia (2022)

10. Massive attack on Israeli civilians by Hamas and subsequent retaliation by Israeli defense forces killing thousands in Palestinian territory in the Gaza Strip. The attack divided the world with Western allies extending support to Israel and Russia, China, and Arab League nations uniting in support of Palestine. (2023)

I feel that each of the above-stated events, along with many other events occurring simultaneously, has added to the momentum of change in the global order that had been in existence since the early 1970s.

It may still be early days to project how the new world order would look like. Nonetheless, it seems reasonable to assume that the global economy may get a significant impetus from the rebalancing. The realignment of trade balances; localization of manufacturing; redistribution of population; and renewed focus on finding/developing new materials, technologies, and methods to promote sustainability may usher in a new industrial revolution.

Notwithstanding the labor pain that the transition would inevitably entail, the new world order would be much better, as has always been the case.

I think young investors need to evaluate the recent events and their likely impact on their investment strategies. I would be happy to share my thoughts on these events in the coming weeks.

Wednesday, November 16, 2022

Politico-economic ideologies slithering in obscurity

In my view, we have entered a phase in world history where the politico-economic ideologies, e.g., free market, socialism, communism etc., have lost their theoretical context. In a significantly large number of countries the ruling parties and their leaders are not particular about adhering to their core ideologies. The voter base of the parties also appears to be divided on the basis of current issues rather than the core ideologies.

The sharp rise in socio-economic inequalities across the ‘democratic world’ has made the bulging bottom of the socio-economic pyramid even more attractive from ‘popular vote’ perspectives; and the thinnest ever top of the pyramid the most attractive from election funding and corruption purposes.

We are, therefore, witnessing (i) a larger role of governments in the economies; (ii) deeper influence of large corporates in the matters of economics and geopolitics; and (iii) preference for stronger (egotist; fascist; ultranationalist; hardliner whatever you prefer to call them) leaders who could be hailed as superhero – taxing the rich (mostly middle classes) and providing for the poor. It would be interesting to see what shape this opportunist politico-economic ideology finally acquires to become a legitimate widely acceptable political practice.

The Wikipedia page describing “Political Parties in the United States”, incidentally provides a good historical context to the latest transition in the global politico-economic order. It, inter alia, reads as follows:

“The first President of the United States, George Washington, was not a member of any political party at the time of his election or throughout his tenure as president. Furthermore, he hoped that political parties would not be formed, fearing conflict and stagnation, as outlined in his Farewell Address. The Founders “did not believe in parties as such, scorned those that they were conscious of as historical models, had a keen terror of party spirit and its evil consequences," but Richard Hofstadter wrote, "almost as soon as their national government was in operation, found it necessary to establish parties.”

In the past 150+ years the two dominant parties have changed their ideologies and base of support considerably but kept their names. The Democratic party, that in the aftermath of the Civil War was an agrarian pro-states-rights, anti-civil rights, pro-easy money, anti-tariff, anti-bank, coalition of Jim Crow "Solid South", Western small farmers, along with budding labor unions and Catholic immigrants; has evolved into what is as of 2020, a strongly pro-civil rights party, disproportionately composed of women, LGBT, union members, and urban, educated, younger, non-white voters. Over the same period the Republican Party has gone from being the dominant American "Grand Old Party" of business large and small, skilled craftsmen, clerks, professionals and freed African Americans, based especially in the industrial northeast; to a right-wing/conservative party loyal to Donald Trump, disproportionately composed of family businesses, less educated, older, rural, southern, religious, and white working class voters. Along with this realignment, political and ideological polarization has increased, norms have deteriorated, leading to greater tension and "deadlock" in attempts to pass ideologically controversial bills. (emphasis supplied)”

In the context of Indian politics, we see that all socialist parties have become feudal; BJP that started as a party of middle class upper caste businessmen and Hindu nationalists is winning elections on “social welfare program” agenda; the left of center Congress is striving hard to establish its Hindu credentials and Hardline Hindu Shiv Sena is preaching secularism.

The Indian National Congress which started with the Leninist concept of planned economy driven mainly through public sector; inserted the word “socialist” in the preamble of the Constitution of India”; curtailed free speech by imposing national emergency ended up as a strong votary of disinvestment of public sector; right to information; free trade and larger role for private sector.

BJP gained power on the promise of “less government” and is affording more power to the government; stifling transparency and free speech; has not pursued privatization in the past 8yrs of rule. ``Free ration”, “cheap (free) medicine” and cash subsidies have been its primary campaign slogans in most of the recent elections. The party with difference is now happy to be led by a strong leader who has vowed to destroy all its opponents.

Socialist parties like BSP, SP, RJD, LJP, TMC etc. have mostly become fiefdoms of leading families and appear more feudal in their conduct than anybody else.

The middle class people raised their voice against the rampant corruption of the Congress led UPA government leading to a nationwide movement that resulted in the birth of Aam Aadmi Party. The same party is now seen as a party of the poor financed by corrupt businessmen. Some of its leaders are facing allegations of serious corruption and communal rioting. Most professionals who enthusiastically joined the party have deserted it alleging lack of internal democracy and autocratic ways of the top leadership.

The traditional ideologies like free market, socialism, communism etc. have absolutely no role to play in the Indian politico-economic paradigm. The global transition might also have some reverberation in India also. However, insofar as the latest round of elections is concerned the results would hardly change anything in the broader context. Congress has nothing to lose in these elections; though stakes are high for both AAP and BJP. There could be some setbacks for both.

Wednesday, March 9, 2022

Look for a Hitler near you

In the past two years, the quintessential argumentative Indian in me, like most of my fellow countrymen, has assumed “expert” status in many diverse fields such as Virology, Epidemiology, Medicine, Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, Defense strategy, nuclear weaponry, History etc. This is besides the Politics, Spirituality, Religion, Astrology and Memelogy (the art and science of making jokes for every important and serious issue) which have been the domains of our expertise for a long time.

Recently, we have been discussing (or trying to direct, if you will) the geopolitical and war strategies of Europe. The government of India may have chosen to stay neutral in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; but the people have taken sides. More than the countries, we are taking sides of the leaders - The Russian president Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Supporters of Putin are mostly playing the “old friendship” card. They are vehemently arguing that Russia is our old and tested friend, while Ukraine has always opposed us at UN and other international fora. It is therefore appropriate for Indians to support the Russians in this war. In their argument, they are happy to omit the issues of human rights; wide scale destruction of civil infrastructure; plight of foreigners caught in the crossfire; and the suffering of the poor in Eastern Europe and Africa who were already suffering from the effects of the pandemic and are now facing food shortages and prohibitive inflation. They are also missing the point that in their support for Russia, they are also (even if unwittingly) supporting a war that has the potential to become a much wider conflict involving the use of weapons of mass destruction. These people are also not recognizing the very close Ukrainian connection of at least three of the USSR premiers (Khrushchev, Brezhnev and Gorbachev) who had taken our side at the time of Goa liberation and Bangladesh independence.

The supporters of Zelenskyy are mostly concerned with the hardships that the common Ukrainians are facing in this war of the unequal. They feel that the acts committed by Russia are a violation of human rights and international laws. By extending their moral support to Ukraine, these people are in fact glamourizing war. They are happy to share pictures of the Ukrainian women in uniform carrying guns and Zelenskyy sharing meals with soldiers. Many of these supporters are just cheering for an underdog, as if it were a game of soccer between the top-ranked Brazil and the bottom-ranked Samoa. These cheerleaders are conveniently ignoring the blatant foreign policy mistakes of Ukraine in the past three decades which may have pushed this beautiful and prosperous country into a perennial conflict, just like Afghanistan and Palestine.

I am against any kind of war that is fought merely to plunder territory, wealth, and/or power. Sometimes wars do become essential to establish the rule of Dharma (righteousness). For instance, the War of Mahabharata, in which neutrality was not an option, everyone must choose a side.

Speaking of Mahabharata, I feel that there is a need to examine whether ‘Hitler’ is a common noun, or a proper noun. Or is it just a title given to an overzealous or despot administrator/governor, who does not mind using inhumane methods to enforce his ideology and practices? I am sure most of us have used this title for a strict teacher, hostel warden, parent, or boss!

Even after 77 years of his death, people all over the world are enthralled to see ‘Hitler’ getting defeated again and again; just like we like burning of the effigy of Ravana every year. Hundreds of successful movies have been made on WWII, reminding us of the consequences of war and the fallacies of the methods and principles of bigotry and fascism. Even young children are fascinated to see Thanos, a super villain comic character having a twisted moral compass and his actions to eliminate a large part of humanity, getting defeated in his misdemeanors over and over again. Many Zelenskyy supporters are even commonly using this title for the Russian president. While we all like seeing ‘Hitler’ defeated and destroyed in fiction, we hardly make an effort to acknowledge the Hitlerian tendencies in the people around us.

A social media survey conducted by me yesterday indicated that a majority of people concur with the thought that ‘Hitler’ is a common noun, representing a person who sincerely believes that they are empowered and authorized to use force to make people believe in their ideas on the ideal socio-political and/or religious order.

Prior to the German Chancellor Adolf Hitler’s attempt to establish the racial superiority of his people, many Greek, Roman, Turkish, British, French, Mongol, Japanese and other rulers had used the methods of genocide and enslavement to establish the superiority of their clan, race and/or ideologies.

The British enslaved half the world – destroying ancient cultures and plundering wealth. Mongols, Hun, Greeks also invaded the Indian subcontinent, destroyed places of worship, raped and kidnapped women, and killed millions of natives.

I certainly do not intend to hurt anyone’s feelings and apologize beforehand if it happens so. At the risk of sounding blasphemous, I would nonetheless like to examine the following with an open mind:

Whether the killing of all the Kshtriyas 21 times by Parashuram, because he believed that Kshtriyas had begun to abuse their power, take what belonged to others by force and tyrannize people, tantamount to a Dharma Yudh or genocide?

How was the Kalinga War, in which the mighty army of Mauryan King Ashoka killed 2,50,000 Kalinga soldiers and citizens, different from the present Russian-Ukraine conflict? Did Ashoka the Great also have Hitlerian traits before turning to Buddhism for penance?

Rodion Raskolnikov, the protagonist of Crime and Punishment (Fyodor Dostoyevsky, 1866), also had the belief that he was entitled to kill people – a Hitlerian trait. But later he learned like Ashoka that salvation is possible through atonement.

History is replete with instances of people with Hitlerian traits. The point, therefore, is that ‘Hitler’ is not a proper, but a common noun.

Society shall do much better if we could incorporate methods and practices in our education system that would guide children to become better human beings by curbing their Hitlerian tendencies and develop compassion, empathy, tolerance and acceptance.