Do it yourself

Following the Custom: Balancing Faith and Fundamentals Each Diwali, as lamps light up homes, optimism lights up Dalal Street too. It’s that time of the year again. Business channels are abuzz with market commentators dressed in their festive best, sharing their annual outlooks on the economy and equities. Almost by ritual, hope dominates the narrative — and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. This year, with investor sentiment subdued and global uncertainties still clouding the horizon, a measured dose of optimism may be just what the market needs. Continuing the custom, here’s a closer look at what could turn favorable for Indian markets over the next one year — and what investors should keep an eye on. Domestic Drivers: The Spark Within Consumption revival on the horizon After three years of subdued consumption, several catalysts are now aligning. Rationalization of income tax and GST rates, material lending reforms by the RBI, a supportive rate environment, and a good monsoon could ...

A consistent rise in global equity prices, not accompanied by a matching earnings growth, has raised concerns about the sustainability of current valuations. In particular, the tech sector valuations in US technology have raised alarms. Several reports have highlighted that the market conditions and investors’ sentiments bear a stark resemblance to the dotcom exuberance (1999-2000) period, and as such markets may have already crossed the fairness redline and moved over to the realm of bubble.  ​ ​ In this context, I would like to draw readers’ attention towards two particular reports that I find representative of the analysis advising caution. “Dotcom on Steroids” by GQG Partners. First report, titled “Dotcom on Steroids” has been published by GQG Partners, USA. This report draws parallels between the current AI-driven tech boom and the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s, warning of similar risks ahead. The report postulates- “Today's market, particularly in the tech sector, e...

For decades, the United States has held a unique place in the global imagination — as the land of opportunity. Its greatest strength may not lie in military might, financial depth, or diplomatic reach, but in its remarkable ability to attract and absorb the best minds from across the world — including from adversarial or war-torn nations. The most striking evidence of this is visible in America’s talent pool. Professionals of foreign origin — Indian, Chinese, Iranian, German, and more — dominate leadership roles across top corporations, academic institutions, legal systems, research labs, and even sensitive government-linked establishments like NASA. Many of these individuals come from countries that have historically suffered at the hands of U.S. military or economic policy — yet they thrive in the American ecosystem, contributing to its innovation, productivity, and geopolitical leverage. This magnetic pull continues despite periodic political rhetoric against immigration, restrictio...

  1H2025 was marked by stressful events, high volatility, and uncertainty. In geopolitics, several conventions were breached and new doctrines established. The war between Russia and Ukraine continued. India and Pakistan had a brief but intense conflict. The US entered the Middle East (Israel-Palestine) conflict by attacking Iran. Climate wise, India had a mild winter followed by a mild summer, impacting crops. Europe continued to witness warmer weather, while the US, Canada, UK, Korea and several other countries in Africa witnessed intense and widespread wildfires, causing immense damage to the climate, lives of people and economy. Politically, the US witnessed one of the most boisterous power transitions with Donald Trump taking over as the President (POTUS). He started his second term in the White House with radical changes in immigration, trade, and climate change policies. This put the US administration on the path to confrontations with citizens, judiciary, major trade al...

A famous fund manager recently expressed serious concerns about a “financial crisis” that is just about to hit the Indian middle-class households ( see here ). In a podcast with Mint, he said, “With household financial savings at a 50-year low and debt levels (excluding mortgages) among the highest globally, the country is dangerously unprepared for a looming wave of tech-driven job disruption.” He was apparently referring to the disruption created by the popularity of “Artificial Intelligence” (AI) in the global job market. I have no disagreement with the analysis of this gentleman. In fact, to a large extent I do agree with his concerns. The fabled Indian middle class may indeed be facing an unprecedented crisis. However, I have my reservations about AI causing or accentuating this crisis. I firmly believe that this advancement in technology, just like all the previous ones, will definitely improve overall employment prospects, in particular, and quality of life, in general. If anyth...

Continuing from last week The development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is still in the early stages. How many more job losses shall we witness in the coming years due to automation? Last week, one of the popular viral videos on Indian social media was about the views of Mr. Rahul Gandhi, Lok Sabha MP, and Mr. K. Annamalai, Tamil Nadu State President of BJP, on the challenges of artificial intelligence (AI). In the video, Mr. Annamalai is seen eloquently explaining the challenges of AI to young students, while Mr. Gandhi is seen doing some whataboutery to hide his lack of proper understanding. Discussing the matter with many people who chose to forward the video to me, I found that the key reason for their forwarding this video is to show Mr. Gandhi in a poor light and not bother about the challenges of AI. They deliberately chose to ignore that both Mr. Gandhi Mr. Annamalai may not be in a position to make policies, at least for the next five years; whereas Chief Ministers of...