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India’s AI Moment: A ±5 million job swing by 2031

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(Photo Credit IET) AI (Artificial Intelligence) is no longer a future disruptor—it’s already reshaping how the world operates. For India, a country with 10–11 million tech and customer experience (CX) workers, the stakes are unusually high. AI is already reshaping how India codes, tests, designs, supports, and runs digital work. India’s millions of Tech and CX workers are at the threshold of a major transition to a future that is full of historic new opportunities and risks. The latest report published by NITI Aayog  “Roadmap for Job Creation in the AI Economy ”  (NITI Aayog–BCG–NASSCOM), delivers a clear message- AI can either shrink India’s tech workforce sharply by 2031—or expand it dramatically. The outcome depends entirely on what India does next. Here are the key points highlighted in the report. The Stakes: A ±5 Million Job Swing by 2031 India faces two sharply diverging paths: If India does nothing: Tech workforce drops from 7.5–8M → 6M CX workforce drops from 2–2.5M →...
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Following the Custom: Balancing Faith and Fundamentals Each Diwali, as lamps light up homes, optimism lights up Dalal Street too. It’s that time of the year again. Business channels are abuzz with market commentators dressed in their festive best, sharing their annual outlooks on the economy and equities. Almost by ritual, hope dominates the narrative — and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. This year, with investor sentiment subdued and global uncertainties still clouding the horizon, a measured dose of optimism may be just what the market needs. Continuing the custom, here’s a closer look at what could turn favorable for Indian markets over the next one year — and what investors should keep an eye on. Domestic Drivers: The Spark Within Consumption revival on the horizon After three years of subdued consumption, several catalysts are now aligning. Rationalization of income tax and GST rates, material lending reforms by the RBI, a supportive rate environment, and a good monsoon could ...

Time to take out your umbrellas

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A consistent rise in global equity prices, not accompanied by a matching earnings growth, has raised concerns about the sustainability of current valuations. In particular, the tech sector valuations in US technology have raised alarms. Several reports have highlighted that the market conditions and investors’ sentiments bear a stark resemblance to the dotcom exuberance (1999-2000) period, and as such markets may have already crossed the fairness redline and moved over to the realm of bubble.  ​ ​ In this context, I would like to draw readers’ attention towards two particular reports that I find representative of the analysis advising caution. “Dotcom on Steroids” by GQG Partners. First report, titled “Dotcom on Steroids” has been published by GQG Partners, USA. This report draws parallels between the current AI-driven tech boom and the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s, warning of similar risks ahead. The report postulates- “Today's market, particularly in the tech sector, e...

Living with hubris

For decades, the United States has held a unique place in the global imagination — as the land of opportunity. Its greatest strength may not lie in military might, financial depth, or diplomatic reach, but in its remarkable ability to attract and absorb the best minds from across the world — including from adversarial or war-torn nations. The most striking evidence of this is visible in America’s talent pool. Professionals of foreign origin — Indian, Chinese, Iranian, German, and more — dominate leadership roles across top corporations, academic institutions, legal systems, research labs, and even sensitive government-linked establishments like NASA. Many of these individuals come from countries that have historically suffered at the hands of U.S. military or economic policy — yet they thrive in the American ecosystem, contributing to its innovation, productivity, and geopolitical leverage. This magnetic pull continues despite periodic political rhetoric against immigration, restrictio...

1H2025 – Markets demonstrated lot of resilience and character

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  1H2025 was marked by stressful events, high volatility, and uncertainty. In geopolitics, several conventions were breached and new doctrines established. The war between Russia and Ukraine continued. India and Pakistan had a brief but intense conflict. The US entered the Middle East (Israel-Palestine) conflict by attacking Iran. Climate wise, India had a mild winter followed by a mild summer, impacting crops. Europe continued to witness warmer weather, while the US, Canada, UK, Korea and several other countries in Africa witnessed intense and widespread wildfires, causing immense damage to the climate, lives of people and economy. Politically, the US witnessed one of the most boisterous power transitions with Donald Trump taking over as the President (POTUS). He started his second term in the White House with radical changes in immigration, trade, and climate change policies. This put the US administration on the path to confrontations with citizens, judiciary, major trade al...