Monday, November 16, 2015

Nifty: midterm weakness creeps in


 Thought for the day
"People don't notice whether it's winter or summer when they're happy."
Anton Chekhov
(Russian, 1860-1904)
Word for the day
Inconnu (n)
A person who is unknown; stranger.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
Sooner the government turns its focus to people from markets better it would be for everyone.

First random thought this morning
In our zeal to defeat enemies, we mostly fail to recognize when we have turned just like them.
Socialists like Lalu and Mulayam are more feudal now; BJP appears more like Congress; Mamta is definitely more communist than CPM; Japan became more like USA post WWII; China is more like Japan now.
What is the point of waging a war if the winner must emulate the ideology and conduct of the conquered?  

Nifty: midterm weakness creeps in

I had written on 26 October 2015 that "Nifty has reached a critical level from midterm perspective". (see here)
Confirming my fears, Nifty has now given clear break down signal on both weekly and monthly charts. From pure technical perspective, Nifty is in down trend from midterm perspective. The down trend shall persist until Nifty manages to stay above 8250 level for considerable time.
A monthly close below August closing of 7667 in November or December will open the door for further weakness in the benchmark indices. However, as I said earlier this month (see here) the current fall in the market is not that much of a worry to me. The real worry is that if Nifty fails to close materially above 8300 by December end (monthly closing) 8450-8500 range will become a very strong resistance for 1H2016. Meaning, we may have another low to negative return year.

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