"Weeds are flowers too, once
you get to know them."
—A. A. Milne (English, 1882-1956)
Word for the day
Ferhoodle (n)
To confuse or mix up
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards
none
The hot topics these days is "intolerance". USA, RBI,
Moody's, Intelligentsia, Artists, Politicians, Media, Twitterati, and the government - all are talking about
this.
The more I hear the debate - the more intolerant I'm becoming.
First random thought this morning
"Heads I'll go, tail
I won't"....."Ooops! its tail."...... "No I'll take best of
three:)" ....."Ooops! it's tail again(:"....."It's final
now. I'll take best of five:)"
Remember playing this
trick to yourself ever.
Many politicians play this
trick by terming each state legislative election a "semi-final"
before next general election.....30 semi finals to what itself could be
described as semi-final if the incumbent wins!!!!
Many habitual punters
(euphemistically called short term investors) too play this game every time
their bets go sour.
Five reasons markets are nervous
The enthusiasm seen amongst market participant during early
October has cooled down in past few trading sessions. A variety of factors are
responsible for sudden dampness in the sentiments.
A discussion with some senior market participants brings out the
following five prominent factors bothering the investors in Indian equities,
though not necessarily in the same order:
(1) The corporate
performance has not been encouraging. The investment demand was not expected to
witness any major recovery, but the consumption demand also appeared to have
surprised the market negatively.
The most worrisome
part is that the management's of leading companies in both the segments (capex
as well as consumption) are not hopeful of any major improvement in near
future. Some exporters though have expressed hope of improvement, but the
global economic sluggishness is making it difficult to accept their guidance at
par. Despite relative attractiveness, the chances of any material re-rating of
Indian equities therefore appear dim.
(2) In its latest statement
on 28th October, US Federal Reserve has put the rate hike agenda firmly back on
track. Consequently, the risk-on rally that took place post Fed's September
meeting is fizzling out. Commodities', EM currencies, bonds, gold etc. all have
corrected sharply post Fed's latest statement.
The foreign flows have
turned negative last week after remaining positive for past three weeks. A
December hike might cause a material correction in EM asset prices, including
Indian equities and INR.
(3) The political discourse
in the country has taken turn for the worst. The incumbent government has been
put on defensive over some socio-religious issues, clouding the economic agenda
somewhat.
The perception of
potential derailment of economic agenda has gained so much currency that even
global rating agency Moody's has to take note of it.
(4) The elections in Bihar
are proving to be the most bitter in recent times. The rising animosity amongst
leaders of various parties is obliterating the chances of wider political
consensus on key economic issues. Irrespective of the outcome of Bihar
elections.
The expectations from
the outcome of winter session of the Parliament are now minimal.
(5) Technically, market has
weakened materially. The market momentum is very low as volumes and volatility
have fallen materially. On monthly charts, Nifty has formed a strong resistance
between 8250-8300 range. Failure to cross this range sustainably by end of
2015, will make this a medium term resistance zone, clouding the market outlook
for 2016 as well.
...more on this later this week
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