Monday, November 2, 2015

Risk off

Thought for the day
"Did you ever stop to think, and forget to start again?"
—A. A. Milne (English, 1882-1956)
Word for the day
Barghest (n)
A legendary doglike goblin believed to portend death or misfortune.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
Better response to "Award Wapsi" would be to give award to the next in line at that point in time when the respective awards were originally given!
First random thought this morning
A section of society is suggesting that rising intolerance against differentiated "opinions", "viewpoint" or "lifestyle" is "BJP in Power" phenomenon. The point worth examining however is whether intolerance is actually fluttering of people with weaker or no roots and the it was British rule that systematically weakened the "Indian Roots" and no government post independence ahs actually made efforts to reinforce the them.
It is critical to take note of RBI governor's recent argument that "India’s tradition of debate and open spirit of enquiry is critical for its economic progress". Global rating agency Moody's also echoed similar sentiments in a recent report.
Risk off
Post FOMC statement last week, the global "risk-on" rally has sort of halted. Bonds have also corrected along with equities.
EM currencies, including INR, that have gained in October ended the month on a weaker note.
The risk aversion is also visible in reversal of trend in FPI flows. After remaining net buyers for most of the October, they turned net sellers post 28th October.
Globally, the benchmark S&P 500 index is showing distinct weakness. As per Zero Hedge analysis, the last time S&P 500 rallied at such a pace (from an extreme of oversoldness) and reached such an extreme level of overboughtness, things went south rather quickly...(see here)
I have been highlighting for past two weeks that Nifty is also sitting at the tipping point and likely to make a sharp move. The move that started last week may accelerate this week as some major results come out and Bihar election conclude.
I would reiterate that the fall will be a buying opportunity....more on this tomorrow

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