Wednesday, November 4, 2015

2H2015 trend may continue in 1H2016

"The third-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking with the majority. The second-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking with the minority. The first-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking. "
—A. A. Milne (English, 1882-1956)
Word for the day
Desultory (adj)
Digressing from or unconnected with the main subject; random:
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
If the betting market is to be believed, Pappu Yadav with 5-8 seats may emerge the real king maker in Bihar.
Considering that no party has so far spoken anything against him publically, it is safe to assume that everyone sees friend in him.
First random thought this morning
Rabid is a strong word in political context. It becomes even stronger if the government is finding it hard to build consensus around key economic legislations like GST. Regardless it has been used and the consequences shall follow.
What bothers me more is that the terminology has been used as part of the suggestion that the current dispensation at the centre is more "tolerant" to the opposing views than the previous ones.
I do not care much about the people returning the awards and honors, but would certainly stop for a moment and think if Gulzar is trying to say something.

2H2015 trend may continue in 1H2016

Yesterday I highlighted a variety of factors that are bothering the Indian markets (see here).
Among these reasons, I feel the fundamental reasons are cyclical in nature and should correct themselves in normal course of the economic and business cycle.
The domestic macroeconomic factors are supportive but the global economic slowdown appears more secular in nature. So the adjustments are going to much longer time.
The political factors are permanent in nature and need not be bothered about too much, in my view.
The technical factors are therefore more critical from near term viewpoint.
As I suggested earlier also (see here), the benchmark indices are close to the tipping point on monthly charts. The current correction is not bothering me. What bothers me more is the potential persistence of it.
In my view, if Nifty fails to close materially above 8300 by December end (monthly closing) 8450-8500 range will become a very strong resistance for 1H2016. Meaning, we may have another low to negative return year.
 
 

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