Vijay Kumar Gaba

 The summer has been truly scorching in many parts of the country this year. Reportedly, land surface temperatures neared 55 degrees Celsius over many parts of northwest India; even crossing 60 degrees Celsius over several pockets (see here). The visuals of floods and inundated streets & homes from many states are also disturbing. Obviously, the weather patterns are changing rather quickly and our infrastructure is not designed to handle these changes. Power shortages, urban flooding, uncontrolled wildfires, frequent landslides, roads caving in, flight delays, traffic jams, etc. have become rather common issues.

The rating agency CRISIL highlighted in one of its latest reports (Sustainability Yearbook 2022) highlighted that over 52% of India’s GDP could be exposed to physical risks like wildfire, flood, sea-level rise, or storms by 2050. This cannot be a good augury for a large proportion of our population which is poor and largely dependent on agriculture for its sustenance.

Fortunately, the government is fully conscious about the devastating impact climate change could have on the social-economic milieu of the country. It has forcefully committed itself to ambitious climate goals. Nonetheless, the conditions may not improve much for the current generation. All those in the 15-59yr age bracket may continue to suffer every winter, summer and monsoon season. The duration of spring and autumn has been diminishing for the past many years, anyways.

One less talked about impact of climate change is the declining rate of population growth. Climate change has impacted fertility, affordability and inclination to have children.

The government data has already highlighted the sharp decline in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Indian women. The TFR of India is now very close to the replacement rate, indicating that our population is likely to peak much earlier than previously estimated.

Recently, a superstar of Telugu Cinema, Ramcharan Teja and his wife Upasana, were in news for their decision to not have kids in the interest of climate control. Temjen Imna, the Nagaland Minister who was trending all over social media for his comic twist to racism slur faced by the people of North East India, also tweeted, “On the occasion of #WorldPopulationDay, let us be sensible towards the issues of population growth and inculcate informed choices on child bearing. Or #StaySingle like me and together we can contribute towards a sustainable future”.

From my interactions with numerous people across the country, I know for sure that these feelings are not limited to a few celebrities or people from the higher socio-economic strata. Young couples even from smaller towns and villages are deciding not to have children. Affordability and desire to live a “free” life without the responsibility of raising children are two primary reasons offered for their decisions. In recent months, the worsening social harmony and high crime rate have also been added by some couples to the list of reasons for not having children.

I believe that this trend is a global trend, not specific to India. In my view, therefore, demographic change (ageing and population decline) is a much bigger investment theme as compared to climate control (or ESG). From a long term perspective (2-3 decades) deflation, technology, insurance, healthcare, home appliances, casual clothing, home delivery etc. should be the popular themes. Inflation, personal mobility, fashion, travel, food and water etc. should become increasingly less popular trades.