"I would like to be
remembered as someone who did the best she could with the talent she had."
—J. K. Rowling (English,
1965-)
Word for the day
Benevolence (n)
Desire to do good to others;
goodwill; charitableness
Malice towards none
A CM of a state, who happens
to be an ex IRS officer, calls certain action of IT department a political
vendetta.
I do not know who is on the
right side in this case.
But whosoever it is, the one
on the wrong side should not go unpunished, if we want people to respect
institutions.
First random thought this morning
As per popular sayings a diamond cuts the diamond, steel cuts the steel,
venom cures the venom and lion defeats lion, so on and so forth.
Our politicians have taken these adages too seriously. They are
trying to counter false propaganda of their opponents by even bigger lies.
The mud-slinging match between them is no longer funny. The sight
has rather become repugnant.
A revolution would be in order here. Any correction may not work.
Outlook for 2018 - 1
The Economic Intelligence Unit
(EIU) of The Economist released its outlook for global economy and industries
for 2018.
In general the economic outlook is
cautious. EIU believes that "global economic conditions will not be
bad—although not quite as good as in 2017".
A summary of the global economic
outlook of EIU is reproduced below:
"The global economy has been
at its healthiest for some time in 2017, but this will prove a fleeting state.
Inflation will pick up and central banks will begin to tighten somewhat more
aggressively. The European Central Bank (ECB) will start to taper its
quantitative easing in 2018. Moreover, political risk is at its highest level
for years: there is long-term policy uncertainty in the US, little clarity on
Brexit negotiations in the EU, and North Korea is flexing its muscles. Global
GDP growth will thus tail off slightly in 2018, to 2.7% at market exchange
rates.
The non-OECD world will manage to
grow by 4.4%, while the expansion among OECD countries will slow gently to 2%.
The US economy will grow by 2.2%, a level that is fast becoming the new normal.
The greatest shadow of unpredictability hangs over the world’s largest economy.
Donald Trump is an erratic leader, making him a difficult ally at home (for his
fellow Republicans) and abroad. This will give the US’s rivals, including
Russia and China, the chance to extend their influence.
Still, the debt-laden Chinese
economy will slow to 5.8% in 2018, marking a steeper decline compared with
recent years. The slowdown will be policy-induced, however, so the credit
bubble will deflate rather than burst. Countries such as Australia, Chile and
Mongolia, which export non-oil commodities to China, will also feel the chill.
Higher oil demand in Asia and OPEC
members’ willingness to extend a supply agreement into 2018 will at least offer
some support to oil prices, which will rise to US$59/barrel, from an estimated
US$55/barrel in 2017. In oil-dependent Russia, structural weaknesses will
dampen economic growth, and The Economist Intelligence Unit does not expect
significant reforms before the presidential election in March 2018.
In Europe, political risks will
again be in evidence, but the biggest challenge for the euro zone will come from
the economy, given the underperformance of markets in southern Europe, such as
Italy and Greece. Higher borrowing costs in the US, China and Europe will also
temper global growth—another reason why it will fall a touch in 2018."
EIU has also made some very
interesting forecast about the likely trend in six key industrial sectors. I
shall be discussing these forecast and my views on that tomorrow.
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