"What is the answer? In
that case, what is the question?"
—Gertrude Stein (American,
1874-1946)
Word for the day
Razzle-Dazzle (n)
Showiness, brilliance, or
virtuosity in technique or effect, often without concomitant substance or
worth; flashy theatricality, e.g., The razzle-dazzle of the essay's metaphors
cannot disguise its shallowness of thought.
Malice towards none
In childhood we had summer
vacation and Christmas break.
My children now have (a)
Heat wave vacation in May; (b) Cold wave vacation in January; and (c) Smog
break in November.
First random thought this morning
In last one month two criminal cases have shaken everyone's confidence
in Indian legal and judicial system. In infamous Aryushi murder case and
Pradhyumn murder case, police, administration and lower judiciary seems to have
acted purely under influence of perceptions created in media (electronic, print
and social).
In knee jerk reaction steps are taken ruining innocent lives.
Police arrests people based on media hype. Judges deny bail on ground of
morality rather than legality of the case. State administration announces
relief and mitigation measures based on TRP of the issue.
It's scary scenario. If you are not scared, pray you do not become
the victim one day.
Assimilatng the change
As mentioned yesterday (see here), a number of changes are taking place in the global
order that shall certainly have far reaching impact on our lives. Even though
many of these changes may not look like so profound at this point in time.
It is important to note that we
perhaps have seen the longest period of peace in Christian era with no major
armed conflict since Vietnam war ended in 1975. The conflicts in Iraq, Kuwait,
Afghanistan, Somalia, Bosnia, Syria etc. have been localized and never
threatened the stability of world order. This non-violence and peaceful
co-existence is not the basic human instinct in my view. It is critical to see
that the beast that has been sleeping for 50years does not raise his head.
The three changes that are worth
taking note are listed below. In my view, these changes are profound and will
have far reaching implications for the global order.
1. Elevation
of Xi Jinping
The amendment of the party
constitution effectively confirms Xi Jinping’s as the Mao Zedong of the 21st
century – a top leader with no constraints on tenure or retirement age.
As the Independent puts it
"The inclusion of Xi’s name in the party’s document makes him only the
third Chinese leader to be so honored, with his ideology joining
Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought and Deng Xiaoping Theory as a “guide to action”.
It will now become compulsory learning for Chinese students, from primary
schools through to universities."
After Mao, Communist Party ruled
through a system of collective leadership. Now the party moves backward, again
betting on a man who aims to restore the party’s central role in society, and
nation’s central role in global affairs.
Xi Jinping thought embodies two
important principles (a) the Party is in control of every aspect of life in
China, from the economy to the internet, politics, culture and religion; and
(b) China is on a path to become a true global superpower on its own terms.
This puts to rest the expectations of China opening up and becoming more
democratic as it became wealthier, converging its interests and political
system with those of the West. The idea of political reform in a Western sense
is now firmly ruled out.
Xi’s wants a nationalist,
assertive China that will not threaten the world but will resolutely defend its
interests.
Mao’s era was marked by
revolution, Deng’s reformed and opened up China putting it on the path to
become a global economic power. Xi’s era is likely to be characterized by full
control and nationalism. To me it effectively seems like end of the unipolar
world that emerged post collapse of USSR. I see Xi's OBOR endeavor as nothing
but an attempt to erect the second pole in global geo-politics.
2. Right
wing swing of global politics
If someone is thinking that
Macron's victory in France has put breaks on the meteoric rise of right wing
nationalism in global politics, he/she may be terribly wrong, in my view.
The swing that was widely
recognized post Brexit vote last summer, has only gained strength since then.
Political developments from US, UK, Spain, Czech Republic, New Zealand, India,
et. al. all provide strong evidence to this trend.
Such rise in right wing
nationalism historically has invariably worked against the notion of
globalization and threatened the global peace.
3. Arab
spring 2.0
The recent developments in Saudi
Arab are most significant. It would be a mistake to see these developments as
localized intra family struggle for power.
This must be analyzed in the
context of (a) declining oil economy and rise of electric mobility; (b)
strengthening of global alliance against Islamic fundamentalism, especially in
view of the rise in terror attacks in Europe, that (c) forced isolation of
terror sanctuaries like Qatar, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, and Pakistan.
The elevation of crown prince of
Saudi Arab Mohammad Bin Salman, who vows to transform SA economy beyond oil,
implement radical politico-religious reforms, curb terror funding and end
hostilities towards Israel to work together for a larger objective is an
encouraging sign.
Nonetheless, these developments
raise the specter of an armed conflict in the region, with China (and its ally
Pakistan) and Russia taking sides with Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Qatar.
Besides long term geo-political
implications, a sharp spike in energy prices could create imbalance in global
markets. The positive would be a strong push to electric mobility (advancing
peak oil demand forecasts from late 2030s to mid 2020s).
I believe that the world is
certainly moving fast towards the new dawn.
The transition, like any previous
episode, will obviously be tumultuous. But the opportunities will also be
tremendous, as always.
I am definitely not eligible to
analyze the full spectrum of the change and its wider implications. The idea of
this writing is just to make readers aware and to motivate them to undertake
intensive study of the patterns.
Nonetheless, I find it important
to assess the implications for India and evaluate my investment strategy in
that light.
...to continue tomorrow
Also see
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