"I think you could ask
10 English people the same question about class and get a very different
answer."
—J. K. Rowling (English,
1965-)
Word for the day
Scrummy (adj)
Very pleasing, especially to
the senses. Delectable. Splendid. Scrumptious.
Malice towards none
What has changed in West
Bengal after the end of 35yrs of communist rule?
What will change if 22yrs of
BJP rule does come to an end in Gujarat?
Fail to understand what this
all brouhaha is all about!
First random thought this morning
In past two days the two principal political parties in the
countries have used important terms like Hindu, Brahmin, Janeyu (sacred
thread), Shiv Bhakt, Non-Hindu, rather contemptuously.
As per the traditional view of RSS and BJP, duly endorsed by SC,
Hindu is not a religion but a way of living. At times they have said anyone
living in Aryavrata (between Hindukush and Indian Ocean) is Hindu. Then how
RaGa becomes a non-hindu, just on the basis of following a different way of
worshipping.
Congress claims RaGa to be a Janeyu bearing Brahmin. Do they
believe in caste system which says Brahmin is son of Brahmin? Or do they
believe that Brahmin is any learned soul which works for the elevation of
society? Does anyone become Brahmin just by bearing Janeyu? And Shiva Bhakti is
mostly about renunciation, altruism, and abstinence. From what angle RaGa
appears a Shaivaite?
Outlook for 2018 - 2
As highlighted yesterday (see here)
the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) of The Economist released its outlook for
six key industries for 2018. The summary of the outlook is reproduced below:
Automotive
industry
In 2018 the automotive industry will see sales growth in all but
eight of the 60 countries we cover, yet the industry will face huge challenges
in its biggest markets, the US and China. Aggressive new targets on electric
vehicles (EVs) in China will force the pace of their rollout worldwide.
Governments will adjust the way in which they deploy incentives to spur take-up
of EVs: a mix of congestion charges, parking permits and other measures will
start to supplement or even supplant traditional subsidies. This will bring
opportunities for carmakers, but also threats. EV development will require
heavy investment, and it may not pay off for all carmakers. In China, for
instance, local conditions favour domestic players, while elsewhere the
plethora of new launches will lead to tough competition.
For the auto industry as a whole, rising trade barriers will be
another dampening factor in 2018. On this front, the US’s desire to renegotiate
the North Atlantic Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is the greatest risk.
Consumer
goods and retail
The outlook for consumer goods and retail firms looks brighter—but
only superficially. Sales volumes will grow by 2.5% in 2018, slightly slower
than in 2017. Bright spots will include the opening-up of markets such as
Vietnam and Iran, but not everyone will benefit.
Among the countries facing a sales downturn is the UK, where
Brexit will finally bite.
E-tailers are also likely to thrive more than bricks-and-mortar
stores in both developed and developing markets. Alibaba, China’s e-tailing
giant, will continue to report strong growth, while Amazon (US) is set for
another year of aggressive expansion despite regulatory scrutiny: 2018 may even
bring a push into ready-to-eat meals.
Amazon’s foray into bricks-and-mortar selling is especially
disconcerting for traditional chains. The “retail apocalypse” feared by some
will not materialise in 2018, but the rise of e-commerce will shake many
old-fashioned shops and bring some crashing down.
Old retail’s troubles will be especially severe in the US, a
US$4trn market, but will extend well beyond it. Consumer-goods makers will not
only have to adapt to the changes in distribution but are also being harried by
activist investors and upstart boutique brands.
Energy
In energy, it promises to be another year when US policies will be
out of kilter with the rest of the world. Donald Trump’s administration will
noisily try to dismantle the more climate-friendly policies of his predecessor,
Barrack Obama, in a bid to boost the coal and oil industries. Slowly but
irreversibly, though, the world is making the shift to cleaner energy. In
green-minded Europe, Germany’s new coalition government will struggle to hammer
out a coherent stance on energy policy, but the UK will take further steps
towards decarbonising its economy. Most momentously, China will boost its
renewables capacity by roughly 60 gigawatts in 2018—the equivalent of South
Africa’s entire electricity needs.
OPEC will continue its herculean efforts to make oil more
expensive—partly motivated, in Saudi Arabia, by the upcoming listing of a
valuable stake in its national oil company, Saudi Aramco. A barrel of Brent
crude will cost an average of just US$59 in 2018, barely up from 2017.
Financial
Services
The deep scar left by GFC on the financial services sector will at
last start to feel healed. Steady economic growth, loftier interest rates and a
plateau in re-regulation will give financial firms renewed confidence. Banks,
especially those headquartered in Asia, will chase after opportunities abroad.
As interest rates rise gradually, higher bond yields should burnish the appeal
of fixed-income products, taking the shine off equities.
There are risks to our optimistic outlook for finance, chief among
them China’s massive debt pile. But the state—headed by Xi Jinping, his powers
newly reinforced by a recent reshuffle at the top—has ample resources to fend
off a devastating outcome. Neighbouring India will start to recapitalise its
lenders in 2018. Wobbly banks in parts of Europe will keep tumbling, but the
threat will not be systemic. Taxpayers, who must mop up the mess, may still
fume.
Healthcare
US health spending will hit US$3.5trn, over two-fifths of the
global total, yet outcomes will remain average for such a wealthy country. The
news agenda will be dominated by Republicans’ continued efforts to replace
Barrack Obama’s Affordable Care Act.
Other countries will make better headway with health reforms,
among them developing nations such as India and Pakistan, which are extending
care to more of their citizens. China will bolster its national health system.
Population ageing will add to the pressures on health systems,
particularly in Japan. By 2018, 18m Japanese people will be 75 or older, and
their ranks are set to swell fast. So too are the associated long-term care costs,
lending urgency to Japan’s health reforms in 2018. Pharma companies will watch
nervously as the UK’s departure from the EU nears, praying that negotiators can
avoid a precipitous rise in non-tariff barriers.
Telecom
Telecoms companies, meanwhile, will face both opportunities and
threats from the global rollout of mobile networks. For every 100 people around
the world there will be an average of 113 mobile subscriptions in 2018, with
rapid growth in places such as India and Sub-Saharan Africa. In developing
countries, the focus will increasingly be on expanding 4G coverage, while in
developed ones it will be on testing 5G technologies. Consumers will take
advantage of the opportunity to bring yet more of their lives online.
But funding this is placing an intense strain on telecoms
companies’ balance sheets. Simultaneously, competition is pushing down prices
for consumers—who are adding to operators’ woes by favouring over-the-top
providers of services such as messaging apps, which piggyback on utilities’
networks. Another blight will be the close regulatory scrutiny of mergers,
particularly in Europe. Still, at least in the US telecoms companies can look
forward to the slashing of red tape.
I shall be sharing my views on implications for Indian industries
later this month, when I present my thoughts on my strategy for 2018.
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