"If you're naturally kind, you attract a lot of people you don't
like."
—William Feather (American, 1889-1981)
Word
for the day
Lucubrate (v)
To work, write, or study laboriously, especially at night.
Malice
towards none
How could a city be termed
"relatively" safer for women?
First random thought this morning
A dear friend invoked my inquisition about the transmission of
improving macro headlines to the household level. My impromptu reaction was -
"it may take few more quarters".
However, a few hours later when I reflected back, I discovered
that I have no basis to comment on this. I decided to check with some experts
and their answers deepened the intrigue; motivating me for a deeper scrutiny.
If you have any thoughts on this please let me know.
Not much to worry this morning
Continuing with my fantasy about the Endgame for the burgeoning
bubble in the global financial markets with trillions of dollar worth of
treasury bonds yielding negative returns (see No black swan
here and Alice
in the wonderland), I would like to share my current matrix with the
readers.
Needless to say, it's very crude, mostly intuitive and evolving in
nature.
My gut feeling suggests that we are at least 4-5 years away (could
be 10yr also) from the final day of reckoning. Therefore, I have enough time to
deliberate over the signal mechanism and develop a working model that will
prompt me sufficiently in advance to get a bunker.
Currently I have the following ten indicators on my radar. With
time it would only increase.
1. An alternative
currency, e.g., Bitcoin, accounting for close to 5% of the global trade
settlement.
2. Massive unrest in
Germany, empowering the ultra nationalist forces followed by a referendum
demand for Grexit (G for Germany this time).
3. Massive devaluation of
EUR and/or JPY.
4. Contempt of a UN
resolution by one of the permanent member of UNSC.
5. A top economy
withdrawing from IMF and World Bank.
6. Crude oil trading below
US$15/bbl for more than a month.
7. Gold trading below
US$650/oz for more than a month.
8. US-German benchmark
10yr yield spread rising above 500points (currently 160 points).
9. Either California or
Texas demanding a referendum for secession from USA.
10. A colossal damage to
human life due to a natural calamity or epidemic outbreak, killing more than
100k people in a short span of time.
In my eccentric view, any one of the ten events materializing in
next 10years will trigger the Endgame for the current
"unconventional" monetary policies.
Consequently, among other repercussions, huge debt write offs
(80-100%), devaluation or substitution of currencies, realignment of
geopolitical forces, restructuring of global trade arrangements, and
immigration & neutralization policies will follow.
I strongly believe that the world will be a much better place to
live after the storm passes.
If you ask me - "anything needed to be done today?"; my
answer would be a big NO.
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