Monday, October 26, 2015

Nifty: At the tipping point

Thought for the day
"One of the very important characteristics of a student is to question. Let the students ask questions."
—A. P. J. Abdul Kalam (Indian, 1931-2015)
Word for the day
Schlemiel (n)
An awkward and unlucky person for whom things never turn out right.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
Post Bihar elections, BJP may want to review its retirement policy.
Experience after all has "Value", in fact lot of value.
First random thought this morning
1,25,000 good teachers would do much more good to Bihar than Rs1,25,000 crore economic package.
The parents are more willing than ever, students are more enthusiastic than ever, the government is more supportive than ever, the money being spent is more than ever - the only missing piece perhaps is a the teacher! Given that Bihar can regain its glory in two decades.

Nifty: At the tipping point
Nifty has reached a critical level from midterm perspective.
On monthly charts, Nifty has successfully completed the bearish H&S pattern that began to form in October 2014. Nifty corrected 1000 points in this process from monthly close high of 8902 (February 2015) to monthly close low of 7948 (September 2015) in seven months.
At Friday close of 8295, Nifty is now poised at the falling trend line within a broader 8year channel.
The market momentum has slowed down considerably in past few weeks. The monetary stimulus by PoBC and anticipated further easing by ECB next week could prompt some dovish comment from US Fed next week (meeting on 28the October) could potentially create some momentum but closing above 8300 in November would critical for breaking the downward trend.
The more likely scenario in my view is that the falling trend line resistance will be sustained in November also.
Bihar election results would provide more momentum to market than ECB or PoBC actions.
 

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