Monday, October 12, 2015

Nifty: Greed paving way for fear, very slowly

Thought for the day
"There are people, who the more you do for them, the less they will do for themselves."
—Jane Austen
(British, 1775-1817)
Word for the day
Jejune (adj)
Without interest or significance; dull; insipid.
Lacking knowledge or experience; uninformed
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
Earth quack with epic center in Delhi - first in many decades. No damage done.
Mother Nature has warned!
Please do not let this warning go unheard!

Nifty: Greed paving way for fear, very slowly

Since the current up move in Indian market started from September 2013, last month for the first time large caps have outperformed the broader markets. Also for the first time in many months, domestic investors were net sellers in equity when foreign investors were net buyers.
This combined with the fact that the market has been losing momentum for many weeks, is sufficient indication that the investor at large are turning cautious about equities.
I shall be closely watching for a material fall in market breadth, volatility and fund flows. The first indication of acceleration in all three together will be the best opportunity to short Indian equities.
The moot point is whether the market could surprise and rise materially from here.
I feel, the risk reward at this point in 5:2, i.e., 10% downside for every 4% rise in benchmark indices. The ratio is much worst is case of broader market indices.
 
 

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