Monday, October 19, 2015

Nifty: Reaching the tipping point

Thought for the day
" Look at the sky. We are not alone. The whole universe is friendly to us and conspires only to give the best to those who dream and work."
—A. P. J. Abdul Kalam (Indian, 1931-2015)
Word for the day
Shirk (v)
To evade (work, duty, responsibility, etc.).
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
Should the popular TV channel Zindagi that mostly shows Pakistani serials be banned and all those who watch it be termed seditionists?
First random thought this morning
Delhi's famous Raavan markets in Tagore Garden is facing serious slowdown in business. The demand for effigies of the supreme symbol of evil is down by 25-30% this year. The economics is not the only reason behind the slow down. Youths' indifference and question mark over the supremacy of Raavan amongst the evil could be some of the reasons.
A small survey of young people to find reasons has thrown some interesting questions. For example, a female DU student quipped "Raavan sounds like a saint in front of modern days politicians and religious gurus, why to burn this poor chap!" A young CA feels "where is Ram who will kill Raavan, we have Raavans only!" Some school students at a metro station feel the trouble of going to RamLila and Raavan burning is not worth taking. They would rather "sit at home and play Angry Bird".

Nifty completed the bullish inverse H&S pattern as expected a couple of weeks ago (see here), giving a decent exit to local participants as is evident from two weeks of continuous domestic outflows and fading momentum.
At 8238 weekly close, Nifty looks good for some more gains. However, fading overall momentum and peaking oscillators suggest that the gains may not be material from the current positions.
Absence of any major economic event and trickling foreign flows may keep the momentum slow but positive. Expect Nifty to gain 1-3% more from the current levels in the near term. The range for this week thus could be 8010-8470. A close below 8010 will confirm the completion of up move.
The short term (3-6 months) trend still remains downward.

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