"In a democracy, the
well-being, individuality and happiness of every citizen is important for the
overall prosperity, peace and happiness of the nation."
—A. P. J. Abdul Kalam (Indian,
1931-2015)
Word for the day
Convive (n)
An eating or drinking companion;
fellow diner or drinker.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards
none
In the eventuality of Grand Alliance victory in Bihar election, MISA
Bharti might be Deputy Chief Minister.
The irony is that Ms. Bharti, whose name is a constant reminder of the
atrocities perpetrated during emergency, will be sharing power with the
Congress Party!
First random thought this morning
Small, rich and without any
influence - the Marwari community in Bihar, which has traditionally controlled
almost entire trade, industry (mostly food processing business comprising rice
mills, oil mills and flour mills), healthcare and hospitality business in the
state of Bihar, is a seriously worried lot.
Their traditional party of
choice (BJP) is scaring them of Jungle Raaj, whereas the rival JDU/RJD are not
assuring them a peaceful existence post elections. I wonder if someone has
already booked one way ticket out of Bihar for 8th November!
Bihar - 2015 elections may bring no change to the State
Our team travelled to 27 (out of 38) districts of Bihar, covering
all the nine divisions. During our 2week journey we spoke to over 4000 people
in 460 villages and towns.
Our interaction with people was completely informal, extempore and
unstructured. We discussed a whole lot of issues concerning their personal,
community and economic life. Politics was surprisingly not one of the topics
that people were eager to discuss; though everyone seems to have a strong
political opinion. Despite all poverty, underdevelopment and pathetic civic
conditions - people of the State have not given up on the politics.
The ongoing State assembly elections are tough to call. In the
course of campaign NDA has lost the early advantage and appears to be losing
further ground. After three rounds of elections, the advantage is with Nitish
Kumar who is gaining at the expense of BJP. In our assessment, the grand
alliance led by Nitish Kumar may comfortably retain power in the state.
The followings are some of our impressions about the ongoing
elections in the State.
The campaign
Both the groups [NDA and the Grand Alliance (GA)] are running a
completely different campaign.
We found GA having a distinct edge insofar as the effectiveness of
the campaign is concerned.
NDA running an elitist campaign
The NDA campaign is technology & capital intensive, relies on
blitzkrieg and lacks focus. The key issue of development is routinely diluted
with references to regressive issue like caste, betrayal, religion etc.
The extremely poor population of the State is finding the campaign
rather elitist and hence repulsive to some degree.
The blatant use of fear psychosis (Jungle Raaj) has also perhaps
rubbed the Bihari pride the wrong way.
The communication line between the top to bottom is strictly one
way. The strong army of booth level workers (mostly RSS volunteers) is
disillusioned as the leadership appears failing in addressing local issues
during the campaign. The middle and lower level local leadership, which is
connected with voters, is mostly placed in the background at the public rallies
and in posters.
NDA campaign appears unwittingly fallen into GA trap, inasmuch as
it is mostly focused on misrule of RJD government during 1990-2005. Nitish
Kumar who is ruling for past 10yrs and projected as the next Chief Minister by
GA, is mostly accused of betrayal.
NDA is perhaps too overconfident about 41 seats which Congress is
contesting as part of GA. The focus in these constituencies is also on Lalu
Yadav and not the rival Congress Party.
GA's two tier strategy yielding good results
Unlike NDA campaign which is often getting confused about the
issues, GA campaign is clear and focused.
Lalu Yadav's RJD is focusing on the traditional issues like caste
polarization, secularism, personal attacks etc. Whereas Nitish Kumar is
staunchly focused on the contemporary issues of governance, development,
employment, and youth etc.
Nitish Kumar is also attacking hard on the (a) traditional Indian
psychosis of supporting the challenger and the underdog; and (b) Bihari pride
by highlighting the campaign control by "outsider" BJP National
President Amit Shah.
Very smartly, Nitish Kumar has pushed the issue of anti incumbency
backstage, by successfully projecting himself as a challenger rather than a
defender. It is NDA which appears defending the policies of central government,
views of fringe elements within BJP and the RSS.
RJD has also been partially successful in projecting Lalu Yadav as
the king maker, who has sacrificed his dominant position to support a lesser
mortal (Nitish Kumar) in the wider interest of the State and the country.
Issues
Both the principal groups have projected development and
governance as the primary issues in this elections. The fringe groups are still
appealing to the voters on caste and religious considerations.
However, the focus is often deflected by fringe and parochial
issues.
On all such deflections, amongst NDA partners, BJP is left alone
to defend their position. In many cases allies like LJP and HAM have even taken
a stand indirectly critical of BJP.
Whereas in GA, the division of labor is clear. Lalu Yadav is
addressing all the fringe issues, Congress is all out to attack PM Modi and
Nitish Kumar is focused on core issues of governance.
Insofar as people are concerned, development is primary issue for
a large majority. A section of upper caste feudal elements is though still
focused on parochial issues of caste dominance
and religious superiority.
A majority of people, especially youth, will consider caste of the
candidate only if they believe that he/she will take them forward in
socio-economic terms. For so called backward caste voters, accessibility of
candidates is primary criteria.
The leadership
The NDA leadership of campaign is perceived to be elitist,
dismissive and playing omnipotent.
The GA leadership is perceived to be challenger, protector of
Bihari pride, and playing underdog.
The assessment
In our assessment GA led by Nitish Kumar may retain power in the State,
and nothing much will change in terms of governance and development in next few
years.
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