"Anger cannot be
dishonest."
—Marcus Aurelius (Roman, 121-180)
Word for the day
Flummox (v)
To bewilder; confound;
confuse.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards
none
"Talvar", the movie, is projected as a neutral inquest into
the infamous NOIDA double murder case.
Ask anyone coming out of theater and you will find a distinct bias
towards accused parents' innocence!
So is film a success or failure, I mean regardless of the box office
collection?
Near term markets to track Yellen
1HFY16 was generally a bad period for investors, particularly so for
emerging market investors. Currencies, equities, commodities, and real estate
all asset classes have seen material price erosion and higher volatility.
Except for some safe haven bonds and currencies, which could sustain the
onslaught, most developed economies' bonds and currencies also suffered.
Demand slowdown in China, which has been one of the key drivers of
global economic growth in past decade or so, has been one of the primary
reasons for the fall in asset prices. Other major economies, i.e., Japan and
European Union have continued to struggle with deflation/disinflation. US
economy has shown some signs of stability, but the growth trajectory is far
lower and flatter than the pre-crisis (GFC-2008) period.
The emerging markets that had been tremendously benefitted from
easy credit driven demand since early 2000s are suffering from poor capacity
utilization (low demand), high debt burden (huge capacity building), and
deteriorating fiscal balance (high public debt, social sector spending, poor
tax collection) and monetary conditions (currency depreciation, rising debt
servicing costs and reserve depletion).
Under the circumstances, the Indian economy has shown remarkable
resilience on relative basis. However, on standalone basis, the Indian economy
has also been struggling.
Challenged by poor external demand conditions (falling exports)
and slower domestic demand growth (poor monsoon, low employment growth, lower
public spending, poor asset quality of banks impeding credit growth, lower
capacity utilization and poor debt servicing capabilities impacting private
investment, etc.) Indian economy has been struggling to keep its nose above the
water. Persistent lower energy prices have proved to be a major boon in this
period.
Overall, both monetary and fiscal conditions have shown
improvement bucking the broader emerging market trend. Inflation has been
effectively contained. Interest rates have started to come down. Financial
sector asset quality is showing signs of bottoming. The government's leverage to
invest without compromising fiscal discipline has improved, and is reflecting
in road, defense and energy sector investments.
The global growth forecast for 2HFY16 and FY17 have been mostly
moderated. Considering the poor demand conditions, the Indian economy is also
expected to grow a slower pace of 7-7.5% against earlier estimates of 7.5-8%.
The poor demand environment is likely to reflect in the corporate
performance also. However, considering that 2HFY16 shall see the advantage of
lower commodity prices and interest rates, we may see the decline in earnings
being arrested as the poor top line growth gets compensated by improvement in
margins.
Insofar as equity markets are concerned, having little support
from earnings in the near term, the direction will be mostly determined by the
flows. Therefore, global liquidity and risk appetite may remain more relevant
than the local economic and corporate performance.
...to continue tomorrow
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